2025-06-12-Jefferies-汉高（HEN3）_第二季度_上半年预览_尚未有令人鼓舞之处_14页_604kb

Henkel 2Q/1H Preview Summary

核心内容概述

Henkel's 2Q/1H performance shows continued soft underlying trends, with no signs of volume recovery in the Henkel Consumer Business (HCB) and ongoing challenges in the Adhesives segment due to automotive weakness. The company is expected to report a Q2 organic growth of -0.4% and a FY25 organic growth of 1.0%, which remains below the guided range. The 1H margin is forecasted at 14.8%, slightly higher than previous estimates due to a less negative FX impact. The price target remains unchanged at €77, implying a 13x NTM P/E ratio for the year, with the risk of margin setbacks if volume recovery is not achieved.

主要观点

• HCB Performance:

  • Q1 saw a 5.5% volume decline, driven by both external (retailer destocking, subdued U.S. consumer demand) and internal factors (supply disruptions in China and Mexico).
  • Q2 sees internal issues resolved, but no meaningful volume recovery is anticipated.
  • HCB organic growth for Q2 is revised to -1.0%, down from +0.7% previously.
  • The 1H HCB organic growth is now expected to be flat, compared to prior +0.4%.

• Adhesives Segment:

  • Expected to face continued pressure due to automotive weakness, with one fewer trading day in Q2.
  • The segment is less cyclical and more diversified, potentially outperforming peers in recent quarters.
  • Adhesives organic growth is revised to flat, down from +0.4% previously.

• Margin Outlook:

  • H1 margin is forecasted at 14.8%, with FY25 margin at 14.5%, reflecting a less negative FX impact.
  • These margins align with current consensus but remain below the company's guidance for 2026/27.

• Valuation:

  • The current price target of €77 implies a 13x NTM P/E ratio, while the current P/E is around 12.5x.
  • There is a risk that the higher price points adopted by key brands over the past two years may be unsustainable, leading to a potential margin setback.

• Investment Thesis:

  • Better underlying sales evolution through increased brand investment and strong pricing.
  • Margin recovery is visible, but not as aggressive as the company's guidance.
  • Adhesives portfolio is less cyclical and well diversified.

关键信息

• Q2 Performance:

  • Organic growth forecasted at -0.4% (previously +0.6%; consensus: +1.2%).
  • HCB growth now expected at -1.0% (previously +0.7%; consensus: +0.4%).

• 1H Forecast:

  • Margin estimated at 14.8%.
  • HCB growth expected to be flat.
  • Adhesives growth revised to flat.

• FY25 Forecast:

  • Organic growth at 1.0%, below the guided range (1.5%–3.5%).
  • The company hopes for a stronger consumer environment in the US in 2H25 to help.

• Valuation:

  • Price target remains at €77, with a 12% increase from the current price.
  • The company is not expected to deliver a 16% margin by 2026/27 as previously guided.

• Catalysts:

  • Q2 results on 7 August 2025.
  • Potential disposal or acquisition announcements.
  • Changes in European energy and input prices.

风险与机会

• 风险:

  • No meaningful volume recovery in HCB.
  • Margin setbacks if volume growth is insufficient.
  • Possible value-destructive deals.

• 机会:

  • Potential for margin recovery if HCB volumes improve.
  • Strategic initiatives in adhesives and consumer segments.
  • Possible M&A activity.

可持续性目标

• 主要挑战:

  • Reducing Scope 3 emissions, which account for 99% of total emissions.
  • Overcoming hurdles in both consumer and adhesives segments to achieve sustainability goals.

• 公司目标:

  • 100% renewable electricity by 2030.
  • 65% CO2 emissions reduction from Scope 1 & 2 by 2025 (vs 2010).
  • 30% CO2 emissions reduction from raw materials and packaging by 2030 (vs 2017).
  • 100 million tons of CO2 reduction with customers, consumers, and suppliers by 2030 (vs 2016).
  • 100% recyclable or reusable packaging by 2025.

分析与预测

• 销售与增长:

  • FY25 sales expected at €20,749M, with a slight revision from the previous forecast.
  • OVG (organic volume growth) for FY25 is at -0.1%, compared to prior +1.2%.
  • OPG (organic price growth) is expected to be flat in FY25.
  • OSG (organic sales growth) is forecasted at 1.0% for FY25, up from prior -0.1%.

• 盈利能力:

  • Underlying operating profit for FY25 is expected at €3,000M.
  • Operating margin is forecasted at 14.5% for FY25.
  • EPS underlying is expected to be €5.31 for FY25, up from €5.35.

• 财务状况:

  • Cash and cash equivalents remain stable at €2,889M.
  • Financial debt is expected to increase slightly in FY25.
  • Total liabilities are forecasted to rise in FY25.

结论

• 评级:

  • The current rating is "Hold".

• 展望:

  • The company is expected to maintain its current margin and growth levels.
  • A strategic reset may take time to show results.
  • The valuation remains aligned with current consensus, but the risk of margin setbacks is still present.