2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Liberia_Request_for_Disbursement_Under_the_Rapid_Credit_Facility_and_Debt_Relief_Under_the_Catastrophe_Containment_and_Relief_Trust_45页_1mb

Liberia: Request for Disbursement under RCF and Debt Relief under CCR Trust Summary

Core Content Overview

This document outlines the Request for Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Debt Relief under the Catastrophe Containment and Relief (CCR) Trust for Liberia, following the severe economic impact of the Ebola outbreak. The request was made by the Liberian authorities to the IMF in February 2015, after discussions in December 2014, with the aim of addressing the significant balance of payments and fiscal financing gaps caused by the crisis.

Main Points

1. Background and Recent Developments

• The Ebola outbreak continues to severely impact the Liberian economy despite a decline in new infections.
• Real GDP growth for 2014 was projected at 0.5%, far below the 2.5% expected at the time of the ECF augmentation.
• Food insecurity is rising, with 630,000 people (14% of the population) facing severe food insecurity in November 2014, of which 170,000 were directly linked to the outbreak.
• Exports have declined sharply, particularly iron ore by 30% since June 2014, due to price and volume effects.
• Donor financing is expected to nearly cover the fiscal and external gaps in 2014, but reserves coverage is projected to fall to 1.3 months of imports in 2015 without additional support.
• Political challenges include a decline in the ruling party’s Senate majority due to poor performance in mid-term elections, which could affect legislative agenda implementation.

2. Performance Under the ECF Program

• The ECF program was augmented in September 2014 with an access of 25% of quota.
• The fiscal deficit for FY2015 is projected to increase to 9% of GDP due to Ebola-related spending, compared to 1.5% in the pre-Ebola draft.
• Overall fiscal deficit (including grants) is expected to reach 13% of GDP in FY2015.
• The government missed three out of ten end-September indicative targets, including revenue and foreign exchange reserve floors.
• Public investment remains at pre-Ebola levels, but project implementation has been delayed due to the crisis and budget delays.

3. Policy Challenges

A. Macroeconomic Outlook and Risks

• The economy is expected to stagnate in 2014 and contract in 2015 due to the ongoing impact of the epidemic.
• Headline inflation is projected to decline gradually from 13.5% in September 2014 to 7.7% in December 2014, aided by falling oil prices.
• Current account deficits are widening, reaching 32% of GDP in 2014 and 40% in 2015.
• Downside risks include a surge in new cases, prolonged outbreak, rising poverty, and permanent slump in iron ore prices.

B. Fiscal Policy Response

• The FY2015 budget includes US$41.5 million in Ebola-related spending, mostly for health, education, agriculture, and SMEs.
• Domestic revenue is projected to decline, with tax revenue dropping to 326.5 million USD from 402.2 million USD in the pre-Ebola draft.
• The LRA has shown strong collection performance, but uncertainty remains regarding the full impact of the outbreak.
• Off-budget spending includes US$41.2 million for health workers' salaries and US$15.3 million for the Ebola Trust Fund.
• The authorities are seeking to reallocation budget resources toward safety nets to address food insecurity.

C. Monetary and Financial Sector Policies

• The Central Bank of Liberia (CBL) has been managing exchange rate flexibility and reserves to address the crisis.
• Exchange rate appreciated slightly from December 2013 levels, with US$12.9 million in interventions to stabilize the currency.
• Nonperforming loans (NPLs) increased to 18.2% of total loans in November 2014, raising concerns about bank solvency.
• The CBL has been implementing direct economic interventions, including loan repayment extensions, debt bailouts, and rechanneling credit to microfinance institutions.
• Staff recommendations emphasize the need to avoid quasi-fiscal activities and maintain market credibility.

4. Requests for Disbursement and Debt Relief

• The authorities requested a disbursement of SDR 32.3 million (equivalent to 25% of quota) under the RCF.
• They also requested debt relief of SDR 25.84 million (equivalent to 20% of quota) under the CCR Trust.
• These requests aim to bridge the financing gaps and support recovery from the Ebola crisis.

5. Staff Appraisal

• The staff recommends approval of the disbursement and debt relief due to the extensive economic damage and urgent balance of payments needs.
• The RCF disbursement and CCR Trust debt relief are expected to cover about a third of the external and fiscal financing gaps for 2015.
• The authorities have committed to addressing any residual financing gaps through necessary measures.

6. Financing and Donor Support

• External financing needs are estimated at US$127 million in 2015, driven by increased imports and declining exports.
• Donors have pledged about US$1.1 billion in Ebola-related assistance, including 231 million in budget support.
• RCF disbursement is expected to catalyze further donor support and help stabilize the economy.

7. Structural Reforms and Institutional Measures

• The Ministry of Planning and Economic Affairs was merged with the Ministry of Finance to form the Ministry of Finance and Development Planning (MFDP).
• The Liberia Revenue Authority (LRA) was established as an autonomous body to improve tax collection and revenue management.
• The IFMIS system was expanded to 23 ministries and agencies and 5 donor projects.
• The Insurance Act was approved in November 2014 to strengthen oversight of the insurance sector.

8. Key Recommendations

• Fiscal policy should remain accommodative to meet Ebola-related spending priorities, but financing availability is a key constraint.
• Exchange rate flexibility is needed to preserve adequate reserves and maintain market stability.
• Public financial management and transparency are critical to unlocking further donor support.
• The CBL should avoid direct economic interventions and focus on market mechanisms.
• Close monitoring of banking system liquidity is essential to prevent disruptions and maintain confidence.

9. Next Steps and Timeline

• The RCF disbursement is expected to help close the 2015 external financing gap.
• The authorities are seeking to complete the delayed fourth ECF review as soon as possible.
• Further disbursements under the ECF program are contingent on policy implementation and revised reviews.
• The audit of off-budget road contracts is expected to be completed by mid-February 2015.

Conclusion

The Ebola outbreak has caused severe economic disruption in Liberia, with fiscal and balance of payments needs exceeding initial projections. The RCF disbursement and CCR Trust debt relief are crucial to support recovery and stabilize the economy. While the authorities remain committed to their program objectives, structural reforms and donor coordination are essential for long-term economic resilience.