2022-01-02-瑞士信贷集团-展望2022年_尘埃落定后会是更好的一年_79页_2mb

报告摘要

China Market Outlook 2022: Better Year After Corrections

Analysis Summary

Overview

The report outlines a cautiously optimistic outlook for China's equity market in 2022, driven by moderate economic recovery, supportive policies, and attractive valuations post-correction. Despite headwinds from property slowdown and regulatory changes, the market is expected to improve due to positive policy signals and low investor expectations.

Key Economic and Policy Expectations

Macroeconomy: China's economy is forecasted to bottom out in 2022, with a moderate recovery expected. Growth is likely around 5%, supported by fiscal stimulus and monetary easing. Consumption remains weak due to COVID and regulatory pressures, but exports are strong.
Policies: The government has shifted to stabilizing growth, with measures like increased infrastructure spending. Property policies have been relaxed to support developers, but risks remain.
Valuation: MSCI China and CSI300 indices are undervalued, offering significant upside (11.7–17% and 17–17%, respectively).

Sector Insights and Recommendations

Top Sectors: Industrials (+4.2%), IT (+1.6%), Materials (+1.5%), Utilities (+1.0%), Energy (+0.8%), reflecting bottom-up selection for secular trends like green energy and automation.
Underweight Sectors: Communication Services (-2.9%), Consumer Discretionary (-3.2%), Financials (-2.8%), due to policy headwinds and rotation challenges.
Key Themes: NEV auto, renewable energy, smart cockpit features (for automakers), and lifestyle changes (catering). Tech companies face regulatory downsides, but global players like semiconductors and software may benefit.
Specific picks: BYD, NIO, Longi, and healthcare firms like BeiGene due to strong fundamentals.

Risks and Uncertainties

Short-term risks include property defaults, COVID resurgence, and regulatory changes. Long-term tailwinds from common prosperity and carbon neutrality strategies are expected to shape performance.

Conclusion

China's equity market presents a bottom-up opportunity in 2022, with sectors like Industrials and IT leading the recovery, supported by policy easing. Despite risks, valuations are cheap, and execution of multi-year secular trends offers potential upside.

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