2025-05-28-Jefferies-班丹银行（BANDHAN）_路演反馈_近期关注资产质量；目标是到2028财年实现1.8_-_1.9_的资产回报率_16页_1mb
报告摘要
- Research Summary: Bandhan Bank is rated Buy with a 12-month price target (INR195), representing a 15% upside from the current price of INR168.95. The total addressable market size is INR272.2B ($3.2B).
- Key Estimates: ROA projections range from 1.5% in FY26E to 1.8-1.9% by FY28E. Revenue growth is 14-17%. ROAE targets 12% in FY26E to 14% in FY28E. The market cap is projected to increase from INR272.2B to INR349.4B by FY28E.
- Management Outlook: Management is cautionary regarding asset quality amid loan growth in April, easing credit cost suppression, and the impact of loan capping. They project good asset quality recovery by FY28E with ~1.8-1.9% ROA.
- Investor Feedback: Investors emphasize monitoring MFI performance, especially amidst tightening rules, and demonstrating strong deposit growth and non-MFI revenue performance.
- Long-Term Outlook: Bandhan aims to reduce MFI loans to ~35% of AUM (from ~40% now) by 2027E and increase secured portfolio to ~55% (from ~51% now) through housing, retail, and commercial loans. They target 14-17% loan growth over 2025-28E, with ROE projected at 14-17%.
- Valuation: Bandhan's post-earnings price-to-book (P/B) is 1x, compared to the industry average of 1.1x. The estimated fair value is INR195 (0.8x June 2025 ABV vs. 1x adj. PB).
- Key Strengths:
- Largest microfinance provider in India.
- Strong presence in rural Eastern India.
- Digitalization and MFI derisking initiatives.
- Robust capital position (Tier-1 CAR of ~17%).
- Risks:
- Persisting MFI credit quality and loan growth related risks.
- Potential slower loan growth than projected.
- Rising refinance costs impacting net interest margins.
- Analyst Cautions:
- Some analysts view the bank's recovery in credit cost as potentially lower than anticipated estimates.
- Opposing view highlighted the risks of MFI stress prolonging longer than projected.
- Analyst Views vs. Median Estimates:
- The median target price is INR240, higher than Jefferies' INR195.
- S&P Global assumes Bandhan maintains an ROA higher than the previous estimate, indicating consensus optimism on upside potential for the bank.
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Note: Bandhan Bank is the largest microfinance provider in India, primarily serving microfinance, affordable housing, and MSME loans.
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