韩国央行-韩国经济展望（2025年8月）（英）_58页_6mb

Korea Economic Outlook Summary (August 2025)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an updated economic outlook for South Korea for the years 2025 and 2026, analyzing macroeconomic conditions, growth projections, inflation trends, and employment outlook, with a focus on the impact of U.S. tariff policies and global trade dynamics.

Main Premises of the Baseline Outlook

• Global Economic Growth: Expected to slow gradually as the effects of tariffs materialize, though uncertainty has eased somewhat following tariff agreements with major economies.
• U.S. Tariff Policy: Maintains current reciprocal and item-specific tariffs, with some adjustments for semiconductors and pharmaceuticals to be implemented in 2026.
• Global Trade: Projected to slow in growth as the front-loaded demand effects fade, but supported by AI-related investments and stable oil prices.
• Global Oil Prices (Brent crude): Expected to decline to the low-to mid USD 60s due to OPEC+ production recovery.
• Domestic Economic Conditions: Despite weak construction investment, supportive factors such as the second supplementary budget and improved economic sentiment prevail.

Macroeconomic Outlook for Korea

GDP Growth

• 2025: Projected at 0.9%, up from 0.8% in the May forecast, driven by stronger consumption and solid semiconductor exports.
• 2026: Expected to grow at 1.6%, as domestic demand recovers but U.S. tariffs are anticipated to weaken exports.

GDP by Expenditure

• Private Consumption: Projected to grow at 1.4% in 2025, up from 1.1% in May.
• Goods Exports: Expected to grow at 2.5% in 2025, with a decline of -0.1% in 2026.
• Facilities Investment: Projected to grow at 2.5% in 2025, down from 1.8% in May.
• Construction Investment: Expected to decline by -8.3% in 2025, up from -12.4% in May.
• IPP Investment: Projected to grow at 4.3% in 2025, down from 2.9% in May.

Inflation Outlook

• Headline CPI: Expected to rise to 2.0% in 2025 (up from 1.9% in May) due to adverse weather affecting agricultural and marine product prices, offsetting the decline in oil prices.
• Core Inflation: Projected at 1.9% in 2025, in line with the previous forecast.
• 2026: Both headline and core CPI are expected to stabilize around 1.9%.

Current Account

• 2025: Surplus is forecast at $1,100 billion, up from $820 billion in May.
• 2026: Surplus is projected at $850 billion, above the May forecast of $720 billion.
• Goods Trade Surplus: Expected to exceed last year's level due to strong semiconductor exports, with U.S. tariffs impacting gradually.

Employment

• 2025: Employment is projected to increase by 170,000, above the May forecast of 120,000.
• 2026: Employment is expected to rise by 130,000, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate.
• Employment Rate: Expected to remain stable around 63%, with a slight increase in 2026.

Key Risks to the Outlook

Upside Risks

• Further easing of global trade uncertainty
• Improvement in consumer and business sentiment
• Robust performance in the AI-related semiconductor industry

Downside Risks

• Reignition and escalation of trade conflicts, including a potential breakdown in U.S.-China negotiations
• Prolonged structural and cyclical weakness in the construction sector
• Heightened uncertainty in international financial markets

Scenario Analysis

Baseline Scenario

• GDP Growth: 0.9% in 2025, 1.6% in 2026
• CPI Inflation: 2.0% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026
• U.S. Average Tariff Rate: 18% (end of 2026)
• U.S. Tariff Rate Against China: 45% (end of 2026)
• U.S. Tariff Rate Against Korea: 16% (end of 2026)

Optimistic Scenario

• GDP Growth: Expected to rise by 0.1 percentage points in 2026 compared to the baseline.
• CPI Inflation: Limited to 1.9% in 2026.
• U.S. Average Tariff Rate: 15% (end of 2026)
• U.S. Tariff Rate Against China: 25% (end of 2026)

Pessimistic Scenario

• GDP Growth: Expected to decline by 0.2 percentage points in 2026 compared to the baseline.
• CPI Inflation: Projected to fall by 0.1 percentage points in 2026.
• U.S. Average Tariff Rate: 25% (end of 2026)
• U.S. Tariff Rate Against China: 59% (end of 2026)

Summary of Economic Projections

Additional Notes

• The Composite Consumer Sentiment Index has shown rapid improvement, reaching 111.4 in August 2025.
• Nominal wage growth has remained subdued, following weak corporate performance in Q2.
• Corporate bond rates have fluctuated due to supply-demand conditions and U.S. Treasury yields.
• The Won to U.S. dollar exchange rate has remained in the upper-1,300 range due to uncertainty in trade and expectations of Fed rate cuts.
• Housing prices in non-metropolitan areas have continued to decline, while gains in the Seoul metropolitan area have moderated after government stabilization measures.

Summary of Key Risks and Uncertainties

• Global Trade Uncertainty: U.S.-China negotiations remain the most significant risk.
• Inflation Risks: Climate conditions and global oil supply movements could affect CPI.
• Construction Sector Weakness: Expected to continue, with potential for further decline if trade conflicts persist.
• Exchange Rate Volatility: Linked to U.S. economic indicators and Fed rate expectations.

Conclusion

The Korea Economic Outlook for 2025 indicates a modest GDP growth of 0.9%, driven by improved consumption and semiconductor exports, despite weak construction investment. Inflation is expected to rise slightly to 2.0%, influenced by weather-related price increases. The current account surplus is projected to be strong, exceeding previous forecasts. Employment is expected to grow, with the services sector likely to see more gains. However, the outlook is sensitive to global trade developments, particularly U.S.-China negotiations, and potential U.S. tariff actions on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals could pose significant risks.