20170613-USDA-USDA_Rice_Outlook_2017.06.13_22页_673kb

报告摘要

Rice Outlook Summary (RCS-17F, June 13, 2017)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of U.S. and global rice supply, use, export, and price forecasts for the 2016/17 and 2017/18 market years. It also includes insights into crop conditions and trade outlooks, highlighting the impact of weather events and market dynamics.

U.S. Domestic Outlook

Supply and Use

Total U.S. rice supplies for 2017/18: 271.1 million cwt, down 2.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 8% below 2016/17.
Domestic and residual use: 237.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but still 4% below 2016/17.
Exports: Raised 2.0 million cwt to 112.0 million cwt for 2017/18, reflecting stronger sales to key markets.
Ending stocks: Lowered to 34.1 million cwt, 26% below 2016/17, due to tighter supplies and higher demand.

Crop Production and Conditions

U.S. rice production for 2017/18: 201.0 million cwt, down 10% from 2016/17, due to a 17% reduction in planted area to 2.6 million acres.
Yield: A record 7,716 pounds per acre, up 7% from 2016/17.
Crop conditions: Improved slightly, with 68% of the U.S. crop rated in good or excellent condition for the week ending June 11, up from 66% the previous week.
Regional conditions:
- Arkansas: 61% good/excellent, down from 14% poor/very poor.
- Missouri: 10% poor/very poor, due to severe flooding.
- California: 90% good/excellent, the best in the country, despite delayed planting due to winter rains and snowmelt.

Import Projections

Total U.S. imports for 2017/18: 24.0 million cwt, down 2% from 2016/17.
Long-grain imports: 21.0 million cwt, up 2% from 2016/17.
Medium- and short-grain imports: 3.0 million cwt, unchanged from 2016/17.

U.S. Export Forecasts

2017/18 Exports

Total exports: 112.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from the previous forecast.
Rough rice exports: 44.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast, but still the second highest on record.
Milled rice exports: 68.0 million cwt, up 3.0 million cwt from the previous forecast, driven by sales to the Middle East and the Caribbean.

Price Forecasts

Long-grain season-average farm prices (SAFP): $10.50-$11.50 per cwt, up 30 cents from the previous forecast.
Medium- and short-grain SAFP: $12.40-$13.40 per cwt, up 10 cents from 2016/17.
April cash prices:
- Long-grain: $9.15 per cwt, down 24 cents from March.
- Medium- and short-grain: $12.60 per cwt, up 70 cents from March.
- All rice: $9.87 per cwt, down 10 cents from March.

Global Outlook

Production Forecasts

2017/18 global production: 481.0 million tons (milled basis), slightly lower than the previous forecast and 2.1 million tons below the 2016/17 record.
Key production declines: South America (Colombia and Guyana) due to flooding and lower yields.
India's 2016/17 production: Raised to a record 108.0 million tons, up 3% from 2015/16, due to higher yields in non-Basmati rice.

Consumption and Stocks

Global consumption (2017/18): 479.7 million tons, a record high, down 0.4 million tons from the previous forecast.
Global ending stocks (2017/18): 120.5 million tons, up 0.8 million tons from the previous forecast, the highest since 2001/02.
China's ending stocks: 75.7 million tons, the highest since 2001/02, contributing significantly to the global increase.

Trade Forecasts

2018 global trade: 42.3 million tons, up 50,000 tons from the previous forecast, the third highest on record.
U.S. 2018 export forecast: Raised 50,000 tons to 3.55 million tons, driven by stronger sales to Latin America and the Middle East.
Bangladesh's 2018 import forecast: Raised 100,000 tons to 400,000 tons due to flooding losses and increased stock requirements.
El Salvador's 2018 import forecast: Lowered 15,000 tons due to corrections in U.S. export data.

Price Trends

Global rice prices: Increased over the past month, with Thailand's regular-milled white rice rising 11-14%.
Thailand's price quotes:
- 100%-Grade B milled white rice: $447 per ton, up $45 from May 8.
- Parboiled 5%-brokens: $436 per ton, up $42 from May 8.
- Premium jasmine rice: $685 per ton, up $44 from May 8.
Vietnam's price quotes:
- High-quality 5%-broken kernels: $372 per ton, up $20 from May 9.
- Prices typically $20-$40 per ton below Thailand's similar grades.
U.S. long-grain milled rice: $500 per ton for the week ending May 30, up $25 from May 9.
U.S. long-grain rough rice: $255 per ton, up $15 from May 9, the highest since October 2016.

Key Information

RCS-17F is approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board.
Rice Chart Gallery will be updated on June 15, 2017.
Next release: July 14, 2017.
Important data sources:
- USDA reports: Including the June Acreage report and August Crop Production report.
- NASS data: Influences production and yield forecasts.
Key suppliers to the U.S.:
- Thailand: Largest supplier of jasmine rice.
- India and Pakistan: Supply basmati rice.
Key markets:
- Middle East and Caribbean for milled rice.
- Mexico and Latin America for long-grain exports.