2023-03-08-国际清算银行-商业周期的形状_弗里德曼拔毛理论的跨国分析（英）_14页_954kb

Summary

The BIS Working Paper analyzes the international applicability of Friedman's plucking theory of business cycles in 12 advanced economies from 1970 to 2021. The study examines how recessions and subsequent recoveries affect unemployment and output across countries with varying labor market flexibilities.

Key Findings

• In countries with flexible labor markets (e.g., Australia, Canada, US, UK), unemployment rates typically return to pre-recession levels, aligning with the plucking theory, which suggests smooth recoveries with little hysteresis.
• In less flexible labor markets (e.g., France, Germany, Japan), unemployment is less cyclical, and output recoveries are incomplete, with approximately half of GDP declines persisting on average.
• Output changes show less variation across countries than labor market changes, but recessions often leave permanent output scars, influenced by factors like hysteresis and sectoral differences.
• Sectoral analysis reveals that manufacturing and trade sectors exhibit plucking-type dynamics (full reversibility), while the construction sector shows boom-bust characteristics, particularly linked to property bubbles and financial crises.

Methodology

The study uses a consistent business cycle dating algorithm and regressions to analyze changes in unemployment and output during expansions and recessions. Labor market flexibility is assessed based on institutions and OECD data.

Conclusion

The evidence supports Friedman's plucking theory more strongly for the US and flexible labor markets, but gaps exist in less flexible economies. Policymakers should focus on rapid employment restoration and monitor sectors like construction to avoid persistent scarring from recessions.

This analysis highlights the role of labor market reforms and policy in shaping business cycle outcomes, with implications for post-recession recovery strategies.