世界发展银行-Economic-Mobility-Across-Generations-in-the-Developing-East-Asia-and-Pacific-Region_4页_417kb

Summary of Economic Mobility Across Generations in the Developing East Asia and Pacific Region

Core Content

The document discusses intergenerational economic mobility in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region, highlighting the region's success in absolute mobility and challenges in relative mobility. It also touches upon gender gaps in mobility and specific trends in China, offering insights into policy implications for improving educational and economic mobility.

Main Points

Absolute Mobility

• Rapid progress: The EAP region has made significant strides in absolute educational mobility, where children's education levels exceed those of their parents.
• Performance: The EAP average for absolute mobility among the 1980s generation is on par with high-income economies and significantly higher than developing economies.
• Country-level improvements: In China, Mongolia, Timor-Leste, and Indonesia, absolute mobility has increased over time, with the average share of individuals surpassing their parents in education rising from 47% (1950s) to 56% (1980s).
• Variation by income: Among lower-middle income countries, absolute mobility ranges from 41% (Philippines) to 70% (Indonesia and Vietnam), while in upper-middle income countries, China's rate (56%) is lower than Malaysia and Thailand.

Relative Mobility

• Lower than high-income economies: Despite improvements, relative mobility in EAP is still significantly lower than in high-income countries.
• Persistent inequality: The share of children moving from the bottom half to the top quartile in terms of education is below the ideal 25% in most EAP countries.
• Declining mobility: Upward mobility from the bottom has been declining or stagnant, particularly in China, where the decline was most pronounced between the 1940s and 1960s generations.
• Rural-urban divide: Intergenerational persistence is higher in urban areas than in rural ones, suggesting barriers to mobility in rural regions.

Gender Gaps

• Narrowing gender gaps: Gender disparities in absolute and relative mobility have almost disappeared in the EAP region, especially for the 1980s generation.
• Persistent gaps: However, some countries still show gender gaps in educational attainment, such as Cambodia, where the gap between men and women is the largest.
• Emerging reverse gaps: Early signs of reverse gender gaps in Thailand, Mongolia, and island nations suggest that girls' absolute mobility is now higher than boys', raising concerns about future trends.

China's Trends

• Contrary to EAP trend: China has experienced a decline in relative educational mobility from the 1950s to 1980s generations, unlike other EAP countries.
• Higher persistence: Urban hukou holders show lower educational mobility than rural hukou holders, indicating that registration status affects educational access and mobility.
• Policy implications: The rural-urban divide, increased costs of higher education, and higher returns to education are factors contributing to declining relative mobility in China.

Key Policy Insights

• Proactive state intervention: Governments should focus on closing opportunity gaps for children with different backgrounds, including maternal health, early childhood development, and access to quality education.
• Spatial equity: Spatial inequality is a major barrier to mobility, so equalizing opportunities across regions is essential.
• Fiscal policy: Fiscal measures can support equity objectives and manage household risks, while balancing efficiency.

Conclusion

While the EAP region has achieved notable success in absolute educational mobility, relative mobility remains a challenge, especially in China. Gender gaps have largely disappeared, but new disparities may emerge. Policies aimed at equalizing opportunities and reducing inequality are critical for sustaining social mobility and economic growth in the region.