2021-06-01-牛津经济研究院-APAC_How_external_demand_is_boosting_ASEAN-6_growth_4页_218kb

ASEAN-6经济增长的出口推动因素

This report analyzes how external demand, particularly through exports, is boosting growth in ASEAN-6 economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam). After a sharp decline in 2020 due to COVID-19, exports are expected to rebound in 2021, contributing positively to GDP growth for all six economies. However, the benefits are uneven due to differences in export composition, trading partners, and manufacturing competitiveness.

Key drivers include strong demand for semiconductors, electronics, and medical products, driven by global outbreaks and supply-side factors. Major trading partners are the US and China, with Vietnam benefiting most from their demand. Short-term risks include reduced demand from South Asia and Southeast Asia due to mobility restrictions. Supply-chain adjustments and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows are crucial, with Vietnam and Malaysia being the most attractive for export-oriented FDI.

Main Findings:

• Exports will boost ASEAN-6 GDP growth by 6.6ppts in 2021, after a 4.9ppt drag in 2020.
• Singapore, Vietnam, and Malaysia have the highest export contributions, partly due to their roles in trade hubbing and manufacturing competitiveness.
• Indonesia and the Philippines see smaller contributions, with the Philippines lagging significantly.
• Short-term demand for electronics and medical products remains strong, offsetting some risks from global supply disruptions.
• FDI inflows are highest in Vietnam, supporting its position in attracting export-oriented investments.