20150713-高盛-A_glance_at_the_Asia_property_market_11页_288kb

Asia Property Weekly Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive summary of the Asia property market, focusing on key news, market performance, and upcoming events. It highlights trends in residential and commercial property markets across China, Hong Kong, Japan, India, and Singapore, along with insights on company actions and market indices.

Key News and Updates

China

• Residential Market:
  • 27 out of 32 cities with available data saw a decrease in transaction volumes (median -21% week-on-week), while 12 out of 13 cities saw prices remain flat week-on-week.
  • On a year-on-year basis, 24 out of 30 cities saw an increase in volumes (median +47%), and 10 out of 11 cities saw an increase in prices (median +10%).
• Company Actions:
  • Evergrande and Longfor Properties have cut interest payments by issuing domestic bonds with coupons at nearly half of those on their offshore USD bonds.
  • Chinese investors spent A$3bn on Australian properties in 1Q15, which is the third-largest share of total foreign investment in commercial real estate in Australia.
• Market Trends:
  • Shanghai's high-end residential market saw a significant increase in sales during 1H15, with 820,000 sqm sold at prices of Rmb50,000 psm and above, a +155% increase from the prior year.

Hong Kong

• Residential Market:
  • 52 primary residential units were sold in the week ending Jul 12, a 59% drop from the previous week's 126 units.
  • Secondary market prices fell by 0.3% week-on-week but rose 7.4% year-to-date.
• Transactions:
  • The 503-room Intercontinental Hotel in Tsim Sha Tsui was sold for HK$7.2789bn to a consortium led by Gaw Capital Partners, at HK$14.47mn per room.
• Developers' Tender:
  • MTRC invited developers to tender for a 420,000sf residential site at Yuen Long Station, with a 5% share of future profits required from the winning developer.

Japan

• Residential Market:
  • Tokyo Tatemono launched the first-stage sales for Brillia Towers Meguro, with 495 units priced at ¥8.74-10.10mn per tsubo.
  • Most buyers are domestic residents.
• Market Trends:
  • Miki Shoji reported that the vacancy rate in Tokyo's central 5 wards rose to 5.12% in June, a second consecutive increase.
  • Rental per tsubo increased by 4.8% year-on-year and 0.5% month-on-month.
• Business Alliance:
  • Yahoo Japan and Sony Real Estate announced a business/capital alliance, with Yahoo Japan acquiring a 43.7% stake in Sony RE.

India

• Prestige Estates Projects Ltd plans to buy back Red Fort Capital's 60%+ stake in the Exora business park.
• City Developments launched a new executive condominium development, Brownstone, with ~300 buyer applications in the opening weekend, priced at S$760-820 psf.

Singapore

• City Developments launched the Brownstone executive condominium with ~300 applications.
• CBRE reported a 0.9% decrease in Grade A office rents in 2Q15 to S$11.30 psf pm, while suburban retail rents remained flat at S$30.30 psf pm.

Market Performance

Performance by Sub-sector

Top 5 Performers of the Week

Bottom 5 Performers of the Week

Upcoming Events

Key Research for the Week

• Aeon Mall Co. (8905.T): 1Q results were in line with expectations, with weak specialty store sales and a need for recovery in 2Q.
• Yahoo Japan (4689.T): The tie-up with Sony Real Estate is expected to positively impact pre-owned home sales.

Analysts and Contacts

• China Property: Yi Wang, CFA, Vicky Li, Jill Guan
• Hong Kong Property: Anthony Wu, Justin Kwok, CFA, Claire Cheng, Nelson Wang
• Hong Kong Conglomerates: Simon Cheung, CFA, Janet Lu, Alex Ye
• India Property: Puneet Jain
• Japan Property: Sachiko Okada, Watanabe, Akira
• Singapore Property: Paul Lian, Jason Yeo, Vincent Lim

Notes and Disclosures

• Goldman Sachs has potential conflicts of interest due to its business relationships with companies covered in its reports.
• The report is intended as a single factor in investment decisions.
• For full disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Appendix or visit www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.

Market Indexes

• Goldman Sachs Asia residential price index is featured in the document.
• Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

Conclusion

The Asia property market is showing mixed trends across different regions and sub-sectors. While China's residential market faces challenges with declining volumes and mixed price performance, there are opportunities in the commercial and retail sectors. Hong Kong and Singapore also report varied performance, with notable changes in rental rates and transaction volumes. Key developments include company actions, such as buybacks and alliances, as well as new property launches and market tenders. Investors should consider these insights alongside other factors and disclosures before making investment decisions.