2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Belarus_Selected_Issues_Paper_34页_610kb

Summary of the Republic of Belarus: Selected Issues Paper

Core Content

This document, prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in February 2011, provides an analysis of key economic issues in the Republic of Belarus, focusing on inflation targeting and investment patterns. It outlines the challenges and policy options for implementing inflation targeting and the implications of the country's investment trends on economic growth.

Main Views and Key Information

I. Inflation Targeting in Belarus—Challenges and Options

Belarus aims to transition from an exchange rate peg to an inflation-targeting (IT) regime, which is expected to bring long-term benefits such as lower inflation, stronger monetary policy independence, and improved efficiency. However, several challenges must be addressed to successfully implement IT:

• Market-based mechanisms: The current economic model relies heavily on government control, limiting the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission.
• Central Bank Mandate: The National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) is currently focused on exchange rate stability rather than price stability, which is a core objective of IT.
• Operational Independence: Despite some progress, the NBRB still faces pressure from government agencies, which hinders its ability to act independently.
• Fiscal Dominance: The NBRB provides non-market credit to state banks to support government programs, which weakens the central bank's ability to control inflation.
• Financial System Resilience: The financial system is vulnerable to exchange rate and interest rate shocks, which is a concern for IT implementation.
• Forecasting and Policy Analysis: The NBRB has developed a forecasting system (FPAS) but needs to enhance it with a more sophisticated model, such as a general equilibrium model.

Policy Recommendations:

• Set price stability as the main monetary policy objective.
• Boost operational independence of the NBRB.
• Reduce fiscal dominance by curbing non-market lending to state banks.
• Improve transparency and communications regarding monetary policy.
• Develop a risk-based regulatory framework for the financial sector.
• Enhance forecasting and policy analysis systems.
• Deepen foreign exchange and financial markets.

II. Invest to Grow—More Buildings or More Machines?

Belarus experienced rapid economic growth before the 2008 global crisis, driven by high investment-to-GDP ratios. However, recent data indicate a shift in investment patterns:

• Investment in construction has increased significantly, especially due to government housing programs.
• Machinery investment has declined, which is concerning as it is more growth-enhancing due to its technology content.

Key Findings:

• Machinery investment is more effective for long-term productivity and growth than construction investment.
• Construction investment has a strong short-term multiplier effect, but excessive focus on it can lead to trade imbalances and reduced long-term growth potential.
• The government housing program has crowded out machinery investment and created fiscal vulnerabilities.

Policy Recommendations:

• Shift investment towards machinery and infrastructure to enhance productivity.
• Reduce the scale of the government housing program to sustainable levels.
• Scale back subsidies and increase the role of market mechanisms in financing housing.
• Streamline tax policy to encourage investment in machinery, including more favorable depreciation rules and internationally competitive profit tax rates.

III. Purpose and Scope of Government Provided Subsidies to Households

This section discusses the distribution and impact of subsidies on households, highlighting the regressive nature of some subsidies and their effect on income inequality.

• Subsidies are mostly direct (e.g., interest rate subsidies) and indirect (e.g., price controls on food).
• Lower-income households benefit more from direct subsidies.
• Food price controls disproportionately affect lower-income groups, increasing the cost of living for them.

Key Observations:

• The government's subsidy policy has distributional implications, favoring lower-income groups.
• Price controls on food are a significant part of the subsidy system but may not be sustainable in the long term.

Conclusion

The paper emphasizes the need for reforms in macroeconomic management and monetary policy framework to enable successful inflation targeting. It also highlights the importance of shifting investment towards machinery to ensure sustainable long-term growth and reducing the role of government subsidies to improve market efficiency and reduce inequality.

The key challenges include:

• Maintaining central bank independence.
• Reducing fiscal dominance in the financial system.
• Enhancing financial sector resilience.
• Improving forecasting and policy analysis systems.
• Balancing investment in construction and machinery.

These reforms are crucial for Belarus to transition to a more market-oriented economy and to achieve inflation stability and sustainable growth.