20160906-兴证国际证券-A-Share_Daily_Express_14页_713kb

报告摘要

Company Overview: Industrial Securities Co., Ltd. provides market data and analysis, including stock and bond indices, market reviews, sector performance, company news, and investment strategies.
Date: September 6, 2016
Location: Shanghai, China (Pudong New District, Minsheng Road)
Website: www.xyzq.com.cn

Index	Close	Daily Change	% Change
SSE Composite	3090.71	↑ 18.61	↑ 0.61%
SZSE Component	10861.50	↑ 166.05	↑ 1.55%
CSI 300	3342.63	↑ 22.95	↑ 0.69%
ChiNext	2222.84	↑ 40.15	↑ 1.84%
HSI	23787.68	↑ 138.13	↑ 0.58%
HSCEI	9938.39	↑ 107.82	↑ 1.10%

Total Market Volume: CNY 532.48 billion (USD 79.71 billion), up 29.8% from the previous session.
Market Sentiment: Positive, with winners outnumbering losers by 2396-to-256.

Stock Performance: China stocks rallied on Tuesday, driven by increased trading volume and thematic investments such as environment protection and PPP-related firms.
Regulatory Developments: PBOC loosened RQFII regulations, introducing a new calculation methodology and approval system for RQFII base quota.
Investor Sentiment: The rally may help investors temporarily ignore concerns about regulatory efforts to reduce financial market leverage.

Environment Protection: Beijing SPC Environment Protection Tech Co. (+5.45%), Beijing Water Business Doctor Co. (+6.84%)
Electronic Components: Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co. (+2.76%), Sanan Optoelectronics Co. (+7.64%)
Home Appliances: Gree Electric Appliances (+7.28%), Zhejiang Yankon Group Co. (+6.51%)
IT Companies: DHC Software Co. (+5.91%), Neusoft Corporation (+2.10%)

Banks: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited (-1.55%), China Merchants Bank Co. (-1.28%)

G20 Summit: Leaders pledged to support global growth and avoid competitive currency devaluations.
RQFII Regulation: PBOC released new rules to ease RQFII base quota calculation.
China-Japan Summit: President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe held a meeting despite ongoing tensions over the East China Sea islands.
Hong Kong IPO Plans: China Resources Holdings Co. plans to seek approval for a $2 billion IPO in Hong Kong.
Ebright Securities Expansion: Everbright Securities has hired top bankers in Hong Kong to boost overseas expansion.
Citic Securities: Considered selling its Hong Kong-based brokerage unit.
HKEx Commodity Trading: Still 8 months away from launch in southern China, with focus on system testing and rule setting.

China Resources Holdings: Planning $2 billion IPO in Hong Kong.
Everbright Securities: Hired top DBS bankers in Hong Kong.
Citic Securities: Considered selling its Hong Kong brokerage unit.
Guangzhou Auto: Aug. vehicle sales reached 127,697 units, up from 94,674 units in the same period last year.
Jinan Diesel: To acquire CNPC's financial assets in a 75.5 billion yuan deal.
Sunwoda Electronic: Surged due to iPhone 7 battery speculation.

Total Value: CNY 417.75 billion, up 26% YoY
Infrastructure Construction: CNY 237.9 billion (+0.75% YoY)
Real Estate Development: CNY 10.72 billion (+31.22% YoY)
Other Business Lines: Mixed performance, with some sectors showing significant growth.

Q116: Up 20.56%
Q216: Up 26.03%
New Orders by Sector:
- Infrastructure Construction: CNY 212.8 billion
- Survey & Design: CNY 7.01 billion
- Industrial Equipment: CNY 11.37 billion
- Real Estate: CNY 13.42 billion

Metric	2015A	2016E	2017E	2018E
Revenue (Mn/CNY)	624,104	632,781	657,712	678,029
Net Profit (Mn/CNY)	12,258	13,761	15,286	16,860
EPS (CNY)	0.54	0.60	0.67	0.74
ROE (%)	9.4	9.5	9.8	9.9
Net Profit Margin (%)	2.0	2.2	2.3	2.5

Inter-bank liquidity eased due to:
1. Reduced month-end liquidity demand.
2. Simultaneous reverse repo operations.
3. Stable CNH-CNY spread and decreased currency fluctuation concerns.
Repo rates declined, with 21-day rates dropping by 50bp.
Trade volume increased in overnight repos, indicating ample liquidity.

Short-Term: Interest rate drop unlikely; market may experience increased fluctuations.
Mid-Term: Uncertainty about economic stabilization and monetary policy easing.
Advice: Investors should not purchase rate products until interest rates rise, and avoid chasing high-priced bonds.
Credit Spread: Underestimated due to increased financial leverage, indicating possible bubbles.
Deleveraging Risks: Financial sector risks and economic fundamentals require attention.

New bond issuance increased to CNY 365.8 billion, with net supply at CNY 228.6 billion.
Bidding results slightly deteriorated, with average subscription ratio down.

New bond issuance and net supply increased to CNY 195.6 billion and CNY 139.2 billion.
Strong demand for city investment bonds and architecture-related bonds.
Yields for high-rated bonds increased slightly, with AAA yields up by 2-4bp.
Credit spread diversified in a small range; term spread remained stable.
Trade volume increased for MTNs and corporate bonds but decreased for CPs and enterprise bonds.

Shibor	ON	1W	2W	1M	3M
Rate	2.07	2.37	2.56	2.69	2.79
Change (bp, w/w)	2	1	(8)	(1)	(1)

Bond Type	1Y	3Y	5Y	7Y	10Y
Treasury Bond	2.13	2.42	2.56	2.77	2.75
CDB Bond	2.30	2.81	2.98	3.19	3.19
Commercial Paper (AA+)	2.92	-	-	-	-
Mid-term Note (AA+)	2.91	3.18	3.47	3.64	3.74
Enterprise Bond (AA+)	2.97	3.25	3.52	3.70	3.85
City Investment Bond (AA+)	2.84	3.10	3.34	3.58	3.72