2022-03-01-牛津经济研究院-United_Kingdom_Housing_market_to_cool_after_2021_boom_4页_214kb

报告摘要

Housing Market to Cool After 2021 Boom

Overview: The UK housing market is expected to cool after a 2021 boom, with reduced transactions and declining price growth. A soft landing is anticipated, avoiding abrupt corrections due to stable labor market and affordability constraints.
Stamp Duty Holiday Impact: Without the expired holiday, transactions are forecast to fall by 7% in 2022, remaining below historical averages. The holiday boosted activity but did not resolve fundamental issues.
Affordability and Supply: Affordability metrics are at record highs (house price-to-earnings ratio around 8.75, mortgage multiples up to 3.35 times income), constrained by low supply. Shortages of properties for sale, driven by aging population and limited incentives to downsize, limit transactions and force high prices.
Interest Rates and Debt Servicing: Rising interest rates will moderate demand but are unlikely to cause a crash. Borrowers benefit from high fixed-rate mortgages, delaying higher costs until refinancing. Debt servicing costs will rise gradually, keeping financial distress low.
Soft Landing Factors: Low unemployment, strong household savings, and incremental policy changes support a gradual market adjustment. Previous sharp corrections were linked to high unemployment and debt costs, which are not expected here.
Forecasts: Housing transactions will decrease to 1.38mn in 2022 (below pre-pandemic but above immediate pre-pandemic levels). Prices are expected to rise by 8.5% in 2022 but will peak and stabilize in 2023-2024, with affordability remaining stretched.