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Global Shipping Weekly Update Summary

Core Content

This document provides a detailed weekly update on the global shipping industry, focusing on container and air freight trends, capacity changes, schedule reliability, port congestion, and related economic indicators. It includes data and analysis from Citigroup Research, highlighting both current performance metrics and long-term trends.

Main Points

Container Shipping

• Capacity Growth:

  • Overall capacity growth in July 2025 is +12% YoY.
  • Capacity growth into the US is +17% YoY.
  • Capacity growth into Europe is +21% YoY.

• Cancelled Sailings:

  • Increased to 8.3% this week, up from 7.9% last week, above the previous year's level of 7.3%.

• Idling Rate:

  • Idling rate is 3.6% by TEU, down slightly from 3.7% last week, below the ten-year average of 4.5%.

• Schedule Reliability:

  • Improved in April to 58.7%, up from 57.5% in the previous month.

• Port Congestion:

  • Global congestion increased, with a seven-day moving average of 10.9m TEU compared to 9.89m TEU last week.
  • US West Coast: Congestion at 0.57m TEU (up from 0.56m TEU last week).
  • US East Coast: Congestion at 0.66m TEU (down slightly from 0.67m TEU last week).

Air Cargo

• Air Freight Rates:

  • Air freight rates growth is at -1% YoY in May, down from +2% YoY in April.
  • Global Average Air Freight Rate: At $X/kg (exact value not specified in text).
  • Asia-N.America: Air freight rate at $X/kg (exact value not specified in text).
  • Asia-Europe: Air freight rate at $X/kg (exact value not specified in text).
  • Europe-N.America: Air freight rate at $X/kg (exact value not specified in text).

• Air Cargo Capacity:

  • Increased to +X% YoY (exact value not specified in text).

• Cargo Volume:

  • Cargo volume at the top 13 airports is reported, including Hong Kong, Memphis, Shanghai Pudong, Louisville, Incheon, Taipei, Frankfurt Main, Los Angeles, Tokyo Narita, Doha, Singapore Changi, and Miami, CDG.

Freight Rate Indexes

• CCFI Comprehensive Index:

  • Shows the overall freight rate trends, with specific figures for Asia-to-US, Asia-to-Europe, and China-to-South East Asia routes.

• SCFI Comprehensive Index:

  • Also included for freight rate tracking.

• Container Rates Futures:

  • Highlights Asia-Europe container rate futures.

Demand and Inventory Trends

• US Import Data:
  • Includes B2B and B2C imports, furniture, plastics, machinery, and electrical machinery.
  • US Wholesale Trade - Sales Distribution: Shows the distribution of sales across durable goods in 2019 and 2024.
  • US Wholesale Trade - Inventory Distribution: Shows the distribution of inventory across durable goods in 2019 and 2024.
  • US Retail Trade - Inventories to Sales Ratio: Indicates the ratio of retail trade inventories to sales.

Market and Regulatory Information

• Citi Research Investment Ratings:

  • Includes Buy, Neutral, and Sell ratings.
  • Buy is assigned when ETR is 15% or more or 25% or more for High risk stocks.
  • Sell is assigned when ETR is negative.
  • Neutral is assigned when no clear ETR is derived.
  • Catalyst Watch and Short Term Views (STV) are also mentioned, indicating short-term price expectations based on specific catalysts.

• Analyst Affiliations:

  • Lists the research analysts and their affiliated entities.
  • Notes that non-US research analysts are not registered with FINRA and may not be subject to certain restrictions.

• Important Disclosures:

  • Highlights that analyst compensation is based on Firm profitability and is not linked to specific transactions.
  • Advises that recommendations are not a recommendation but an investment idea.
  • Notes that Catalyst Watch/STV calls do not affect fundamental ratings.
  • Provides important disclosures regarding conflicts of interest and regulatory compliance.

Key Information

• Data Sources:

  • Citi Research, Clarksons, Drewry, Bloomberg, DataStream, US Census Bureau, and others.

• Timeframes:

  • Weekly and monthly updates.
  • Seven-day moving average for congestion.
  • 12-month ETR for investment ratings.

• Contact Information:

  • Includes phone numbers and email addresses of Citi analysts.
  • Provides contact details for visually impaired investors and for further disclosures.

Summary

The report outlines the current state of the global shipping industry, emphasizing container and air freight performance, capacity growth, schedule reliability, and port congestion. It also includes economic indicators and investment ratings from Citi Research, with disclosures regarding analyst affiliations, compensation, and regulatory compliance. The data is sourced from various entities, including Clarksons, Drewry, and Bloomberg, and provides a comprehensive overview of the market's dynamics and potential future movements.