20170227-中国银河国际证券-China_Cement_Weekly__Cement_Prices_Remained_Steady_in_Most_Areas__Funding_for_De-Capacity_Still_Unclear_12页_1012kb
报告摘要
China Cement Sector Summary
Core Content
The document provides an overview of the current state of the Chinese cement sector, including price trends, market demand, and the impact of supply-side reforms. It also includes valuation data and market share analysis for major cement companies.
Main Points
-
Cement Prices:
- Cement prices remained stable in most areas, with a slight decrease of 0.21% nationwide last week.
- Regional variations were observed: prices in parts of Hunan and Jiangxi dropped by RMB20-30/tonne, while in Guangxi, Yunnan, and Gansu, they increased by RMB10-20/tonne.
- Coal prices stabilized, contributing to the stability of cement prices as coal is a major cost component.
-
Market Demand:
- Daily shipment volume increased by 10%–20% week on week, indicating a gradual recovery in market demand.
- However, the recovery for bulk cement was slower, as many major construction projects had just restarted after the Chinese New Year.
-
Supply-Side Reform:
- There was a market rumor about a special allowance policy for de-capacity in the cement industry, but the source of funding for this policy remains unclear.
- The government is focusing on improving environmental standards, which may lead to the gradual exit of obsolete capacity from the market in the long run.
-
Stock Performance:
- Cement stocks showed mixed performance last week, with an average increase of 5.9%.
- CNBM [3323.HK; SELL] was the top performer, rising 7.6%, but dropped 3.75% on the last trading day due to a market correction.
- Anhui Conch [0914.HK; HOLD] had the weakest performance among the covered stocks, rising 1.3%.
Key Information
Valuation Table (PER, PBR, EV/EBITDA)
| Company | Ticker | Rating | Price (HK$) | Market Cap (US$m) | PER (2015) | PER (2016E) | PER (2017E) | PBR (2015) | PBR (2016E) | PBR (2017E) | EV/EBITDA (2015) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2017E) | Net Debt/Equity (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anhui Conch | 914 HK Equity | HOLD | 26.80 | 16,202 | 19.3 | 14.0 | 11.8 | 1.67 | 1.61 | 1.53 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 6.4 | (8) |
| ONBM | 3323 HK Equity | SELL | 5.39 | 3,731 | 39.0 | 15.8 | 11.0 | 0.57 | 0.59 | 0.59 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 208 |
| BBMG | 2009 HK Equity | BUY | 3.52 | 6,965 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 0.62 | 0.61 | 0.58 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 7.9 | 54 |
| CR Cement | 1313 HK Equity | BUY | 4.01 | 3,359 | 12.7 | 15.7 | 9.7 | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.88 | 9.9 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 65 |
| Simple Average | - | - | - | - | 20.9 | 13.5 | 10.0 | 0.96 | 0.94 | 0.89 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 80 |
| Weighted Average | - | - | - | - | 19.5 | 13.2 | 10.5 | 1.22 | 1.18 | 1.12 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 41 |
Peer Comparison
| Company | Ticker | Rating | Market Cap (US$m) | PER (2015) | PER (2016E) | PER (2017E) | PBR (2015) | PBR (2016E) | PBR (2017E) | EV/EBITDA (2015) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2017E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anhui Conch | 914 HK Equity | HOLD | 26.80 | 16,202 | 19.3 | 14.0 | 11.8 | 1.67 | 1.61 | 1.53 | 10.1 | 7.7 |
| CNBM | 3323 HK Equity | SELL | 5.39 | 3,731 | 39.0 | 15.8 | 11.0 | 0.57 | 0.59 | 0.59 | 10.4 | 10.4 |
| BBMG | 2009 HK Equity | BUY | 3.52 | 6,965 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 0.62 | 0.61 | 0.58 | 9.2 | 9.1 |
| CR Cement | 1313 HK Equity | BUY | 4.01 | 3,359 | 12.7 | 15.7 | 9.7 | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.88 | 9.9 | 8.0 |
| TCC International | 1136 HK Equity | NR | 1.97 | 1,249 | - | 246.3 | 40.2 | 0.51 | 0.50 | 0.49 | 10.1 | 11.8 |
| China National Materials | 1893 HK Equity | NR | 2.54 | 1,163 | 12.7 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.46 | 6.1 | 5.4 |
| Asia Cement | 743 HK Equity | NR | 2.31 | 464 | - | 22.7 | 12.8 | 0.35 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 7.3 | 8.3 |
| West China Cement | 2233 HK Equity | NR | 1 | 695 | - | 52.0 | 15.3 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.80 | 9.7 | 7.5 |
| Tianrui Cement | 1252 HK Equity | NR | 2.01 | 619 | 18.1 | - | - | 0.56 | - | - | 8.3 | - |
Market Share in Terms of Clinker Capacity (2015)
| Region | Anhui Conch | CNBM | CR Cement | Shanshui | BBMG | TCCI | Asia Cement | WCC | Huaxin-Lafarge | Sinoma Group |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East China | 44.9% | 40.2% | 10.9% | 51.7% | 2.2% | 8.7% | 42.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.2% |
| South Central China | 26.5% | 15.4% | 10.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 5.1% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 8.0% | 2.5% |
| North China | 8.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 12.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 94.9% | 0.0% | 68.8% |
| Northeast China | 11.2% | 26.7% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| Southwest China | 7.5% | 26.7% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 4.8% |
| Northwest China | 11.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 5.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 28.0% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Grand Total | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Conclusion
The cement sector in China has shown a mixed trend in prices, with some regions experiencing a decline and others a rise. Market demand is gradually recovering, though bulk cement demand remains sluggish due to the recent restart of construction activities. The de-capacity policy remains a key topic, but the funding source is still unclear. Valuation data and market share analysis suggest varying performance among cement companies, with Anhui Conch and BBMG being the main players in the market. The report highlights the importance of understanding the investment risks and consulting financial advisors before making investment decisions.
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