2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Cote_d39Ivoire_Second_Reviews_under_an_Arrangement_under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_and_the_Extended_Arrangement_under_the_Extended_Fund_Facility_112页_1mb

CÔTE D'IVOIRE: IMF Country Report No. 17/372 Summary

Core Content

The IMF Country Report No. 17/372 outlines the second reviews of the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangements for Côte d'Ivoire, which were completed on December 8, 2017, without a formal Board meeting. The report discusses the country's economic performance, program implementation, fiscal and structural reforms, and debt sustainability.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Performance and Outlook

• Economic Growth: Strong economic growth is expected to remain above 7% in 2017–2019, despite external shocks such as a sharp drop in cocoa prices and social tensions.
• Inflation: Inflation is projected to stay subdued, around 1% in 2017, due to price stability in the WAEMU monetary zone.
• Current Account Deficit: The current account deficit is expected to widen in 2017, primarily due to the cocoa price drop and increased export volumes.
• Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit is projected to be 4.5% of GDP in 2017 and converge to the WAEMU regional norm of 3% by 2019.

Program Implementation

• Performance: The program's performance in 2017 was strong, with all performance criteria, indicative targets, and structural benchmarks met by end-June.
• Eurobond Success: A successful Eurobond issuance in June 2017 helped secure confidence in the financial markets and supported the program's fiscal needs.
• Disbursements: The disbursement of SDR 96.786 million (about US$136.5 million) was approved, bringing total disbursements under the ECF/EFF arrangements to SDR 263.258 million (about US$371.3 million).

Structural Reforms

• Public Financial Management (PFM): The authorities are advancing reforms in program budgeting, streamlining the expenditure chain, and improving public investment management.
• Tax Reforms: Measures to rationalize tax exemptions, improve tax and customs administrations, and increase revenue mobilization are being implemented.
• Debt Management: The country is working on a balanced mix of domestic and external financing, with a focus on improving debt sustainability.
• Energy Sector: Reforms in the energy sector, including the introduction of price caps and the recapitalization of public banks, are aimed at improving financial viability and stability.

Debt Sustainability and Financing

• Debt Service: Debt service costs are expected to increase, but the authorities are managing the fiscal deficit effectively.
• Treasury Single Account (TSA): The transition to a TSA is progressing, with a census of government accounts in commercial banks and plans to close half of them in 2018.
• Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA): The DSA, prepared by the IMF and World Bank, confirms that the country's debt sustainability risk classification remains unchanged.

Social and Political Context

• Social Stability: Social peace was secured through agreements with mutinous soldiers and striking civil servants, including payments to soldiers and a 5-year truce with trade unions.
• Civil Servant Arrears: The government has committed to repaying civil servant wage arrears over 8 years, starting in 2018, which will add 0.1% of GDP to the annual wage bill.

Program Policies for 2017–2019

A. Fiscal Policy

• The fiscal deficit is expected to converge to the WAEMU regional norm of 3% of GDP by 2019.
• New revenue mobilization measures and rationalization of current expenditures are planned to limit the fiscal deficit to 3.75% of GDP in 2018.
• The authorities will optimize current expenditures and reduce debt service costs due to lower interest rates.

B. Public Financial Management (PFM)

• Reforms on program budgeting and expenditure streamlining are ongoing.
• A new PFM legal framework will be implemented, and IT upgrades for the Integrated Financial Management Information System are planned for 2018.
• The authorities are strengthening transparency by including PPPs in the multi-year investment plan.

C. Debt Management Policy

• A balanced mix of domestic and external financing is being pursued.
• The Eurobond issuance in June 2017 helped improve the debt repayment profile.
• The TSA transition is being supported by closing half of the open government accounts in commercial banks.

D. Financial Sector

• The banking system supported economic growth, with credit expanding at a strong pace of 20% in the first half of 2017.
• The capital adequacy ratio improved from 8% to nearly 10% by end-June 2017.

E. Structural Reforms

• The authorities are implementing reforms to improve the business climate, including the creation of two new CMEs in Abidjan.
• The recapitalization of one public bank is expected to contribute to financial sector stability.
• Performance contracts and indicators are being finalized with 7 public enterprises, with plans to extend this to other key entities in 2018.

Risks and Outlook

• Balanced Risks: Risks to the macroeconomic outlook are broadly balanced, with external shocks and social tensions posing challenges.
• Private Investment: Ongoing and additional structural reforms, along with the G20 Compact with Africa, are expected to boost private investment and consumption.
• Fiscal Risks: Fiscal risks from public enterprises and PPPs are being monitored, with plans to enhance transparency and improve risk management.

Conclusion

The IMF has supported the second review of the ECF and EFF arrangements for Côte d'Ivoire, recognizing the progress made in fiscal adjustment, structural reforms, and debt management. The authorities are on track to meet their targets and are taking steps to ensure long-term economic stability and debt sustainability, while addressing social challenges and public sector efficiency.