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2016 AFP Risk Survey Summary

1. Key Findings

• Earnings Uncertainty: 52% of surveyed organizations reported greater earnings uncertainty than three years prior, a rise from previous years but still below 2013 levels (59%).
• Risk Forecasting: 78% of respondents consider risk forecasting extremely challenging, with 52% anticipating it will become harder in the future.
• Primary Risk Drivers:
  • Financial factors (e.g., credit, liquidity, interest rates) ranked highest.
  • External factors (e.g., country risk, regulatory changes, natural disasters) and commodities (energy, agricultural, metals) were top drivers of uncertainty.

2. Economic Trends

• Leading economic concerns included political/regulatory uncertainty (43%), tougher competition (42%), and customer satisfaction/retention (40%).
• Currency and commodity volatility are amplified by global interconnectedness, with companies struggling to prepare for rising commodity-related risks (only 50% have mitigation plans).

3. Mitigation Strategies

• Over 54% of organizations continue to implement hedge programs for interest rate, currency, and commodity risks.
• Common actions include adjusting product lines, resizing workforces, reprioritizing geographic markets, and forming new supply chain partnerships.

4. Data and Analytics

• Risk data analytics are seen as essential for improving risk quantification, identification, and mitigation.
• Larger public companies and individuals with higher revenues are more likely to leverage analytics for risk management.

5. Demographic Insights

• Organizations with annual revenues under $1 billion and privately held companies are more susceptible to external factors and commodity risks.
• Government-owned and non-profit entities face unique risk challenges, particularly in areas like infrastructure and labor issues.

6. Forward-Looking Challenges

• Predicting future earnings amid growing geopolitical and economic volatility remains a priority for 52% of respondents.
• Cybersecurity is increasingly recognized as a core business risk but remains under-addressed.

7. Hedging Tools

• Swaps (63% for interest rate risks) and forwards (45% for currency risks) are primarily used for hedging.
• 57% of respondents view swaps as highly effective for commodity risks, along with options.

Conclusion

The 2016 AFP Risk Survey highlights a sustained increase in global economic uncertainty, particularly driven by financial factors, external risks, and commodities. Organizations are actively implementing risk mitigation strategies, but challenges remain, especially in forecasting and preparing for interconnected risks.