穆迪-美国-金融市场-外国投资者减轻了美国提高杠杆率的负担-20180322-29页_803kb

Summary of Moody's Weekly Market Outlook

Core Content

Moody's Weekly Market Outlook discusses the current state of U.S. and global credit markets, focusing on the impact of elevated U.S. leverage, foreign investor behavior, and trade policy implications.

Key Findings

U.S. Leverage and Economic Growth

• The U.S. nonfinancial-sector debt to GDP ratio has been rising, reaching 249% in 2017, just below the 2016 record of 250%.
• Economic growth has slowed over time, with an average of 1.8% since 2000, which may have contributed to the rise in leverage.
• A historical trend shows that as the debt-to-GDP ratio increases, the 10-year Treasury yield tends to decline, indicating that high leverage can limit the upside for interest rates.
• The U.S. industrial metals price index has declined, suggesting global business activity may be leveling off.

Foreign Investor Behavior

• Foreign investors hold a significant portion of U.S. corporate and government bonds.
• As of Q4-2017, foreigners held $3.533 trillion, or 40.0%, of U.S. corporate bonds, up from previous years.
• Despite the U.S. dollar weakening against other currencies, foreign investors continue to purchase U.S. corporate bonds due to relatively high yields and a benign default outlook.
• The spread between U.S. and euro-denominated corporate bond yields has reached record levels, with dollar bonds offering a 274 bp premium as of March 2018.
• The U.S. Treasury market also faces pressure from foreign investors, as a weaker dollar could reduce their net purchases.

Trade Policy and Protectionism

• The Trump administration's trade policies aim to protect U.S. manufacturing jobs and improve trade deals.
• However, economists argue that protectionism can lead to inefficiencies, misallocation of resources, and higher prices for consumers.
• Trade, rather than protectionism, is a more significant driver of U.S. manufacturing employment, as evidenced by historical data showing a steady decline in the industry's share of employment.
• The use of tariffs could lead to retaliation from trading partners, reducing U.S. exports and potentially weakening the dollar.

Currency and Interest Rate Implications

• A weaker U.S. dollar is often seen as beneficial for trade, but it can have negative effects on the credit market.
• The Treasury secretary's comments on a weak dollar may signal a potential shift in policy, but such rhetoric could reduce foreign demand for U.S. assets, potentially driving up interest rates.
• The correlation between real goods imports and manufacturing industrial production is strong, indicating that reducing imports could harm domestic manufacturing.

Main Views

• Elevated U.S. leverage has been accompanied by slower economic growth, but it has also limited the potential for significant increases in interest rates.
• Foreign investors continue to purchase U.S. corporate bonds due to higher yields and stable default rates, despite the dollar's weakness.
• Protectionist policies, such as tariffs, are politically appealing but economically costly, as they disrupt trade and may lead to retaliatory measures.
• Currency depreciation can have mixed effects on the economy, with short-term benefits for trade but potential long-term risks for the credit market.

Key Metrics and Trends

• U.S. High-Yield Default Rate: Expected to drop from 3.6% in February 2018 to 2.0% by February 2019.
• U.S. Debt-to-GDP Ratio: Reached 249% in 2017, down slightly from the 2016 peak of 250%.
• Foreign Ownership of U.S. Bonds: Foreign investors held $6.307 trillion of U.S. Treasuries as of year-end 2017, representing 43.7% of the total marketable debt.
• Corporate Bond Issuance: U.S. corporate bond issuance in 2017 reached a record $1.508 trillion for investment-grade bonds and $453 billion for high-yield bonds.
• Yield Spreads: U.S. corporate bond yields have widened significantly compared to euro-denominated counterparts, with a 274 bp premium in March 2018.

The Week Ahead

U.S. Key Indicators

• Moody's Analytics Business Confidence Index (4-wk MA): Released Monday at 10:00 a.m.
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence for March: Released Tuesday at 10:00 a.m.
• Advanced Goods Deficit for February: Released Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.
• GDP for 2017Q4 (third estimate): Released Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.
• Pending Home Sales for February: Released Wednesday at 10:00 a.m.
• Jobless Claims for 3/24/18: Released Thursday at 8:30 a.m.
• Personal Income for February: Released Thursday at 8:30 a.m.
• Personal Spending for February: Released Thursday at 8:30 a.m.
• Core PCE Deflator for February: Released Thursday at 8:30 a.m.
• Michigan Sentiment for March (final): Released Friday at 10:00 a.m.

Europe Key Indicators

• France: GDP for Q4: Released Monday at 7:45 a.m.
• Euro Zone: Business and Consumer Sentiment for March: Released Tuesday at 10:00 a.m.
• France: Job Seekers for February: Released Tuesday at 5:00 p.m.
• Spain: Retail Sales for February: Released Wednesday at 8:05 a.m.
• U.K.: Consumer Confidence for March: Released Wednesday at 12:05 a.m.
• Germany: Unemployment for March: Released Thursday at 9:00 a.m.
• U.K.: GDP Expenditure Breakdown for Q4: Released Thursday at 9:30 a.m.

Asia-Pacific Key Indicators

• Japan's February Activity Data: Indicates a weak GDP print in the March quarter, with a sharp 6.6% monthly decline in production in January.