20230621-招银国际-药明生物-02269.HK-2023E_growth_outlook_remains_intact_5页_1mb

报告摘要

WuXi Biologics (2269 HK) Analysis Summary

Revenue and Profit Outlook: For 2023E first half, revenue is expected to grow 11% YoY, and adjusted net income to remain flat, primarily due to high previous year comparisons and reduced COVID-related projects. Full-year 2023E guidance is revised slightly downward, with revenue growth at 30% YoY and adjusted net income at 26% YoY.
Pipeline and Projects: The company added 25 new projects in the first five months of 2023, including 8 external projects under its "Win-the-Molecule" strategy, mostly commercial and phase III. Management attributed lower new project uptake to extended sales cycles and biotech funding slowdown, but noted wins of 8 projects, including 4 phase III and 2 CMO projects.
Non-COVID Growth: Non-COVID revenue has shown strong momentum, growing 64% and 63% YoY in 2021 and 2022 respectively. For 2023E first half, it is forecast to grow over 60% YoY, aligning with full-year guidance. The Ireland site (MFG7) is expected to contribute significant revenue from 2024E onwards.
Commercial Strength: WuXi Biologics is highly recognized for its commercial manufacturing capabilities, enabling it to capture opportunities in biologics outsourcing. Long-term growth is expected to outpace industry averages at twice the rate.
Margin and Cost Controls: Despite capacity additions in 2022 (e.g., MFG7 and MFG8), margin levels are expected to stay satisfactory through effective cost controls via WBS, targeting a 300bps improvement in gross profit margin.
Valuation and Recommendation: Equity research maintains a BUY rating with a target price of HK$75.00, down 93.5% from previous HK$81.93, based on a 10-year DCF model adjusting for exchange rates. Full-year revenue and profit forecasts for 2023E-2025E show steady growth, but downward adjustments reflect assumptions. Risk factors include potential revenue drag from reduced COVID projects and slower biotech funding.
Disclosure Note: This summary reflects key points from the analyst report; full details pertain to the disclosures on the last page.