2021-11-11-兰德-欧洲防务战略自治（英）_90页_2mb

European strategic autonomy in defence is a concept rooted in defence and security, though its scope has expanded to include broader security issues. It involves efforts to enhance Europe's defence capabilities, often through initiatives like the European Defence Fund, PESCO, and the Strategic Compass, but faces challenges such as internal EU disagreements and uncertainty regarding transatlantic relations with NATO and the US.

The path to achieving strategic autonomy is fraught with obstacles, including differing national ambitions, debates over UK involvement post-Brexit, US strategic shifts (e.g., focus on Indo-Pacific), and challenges in coordinating with NATO. These factors contribute to divergent European visions and hinder consistent implementation. Analysis of three possible futures (scenarios) suggests that stronger EU autonomy could complement NATO and benefit the US/NATO, but risks strain transatlantic ties if pursued independently.

Key recommendations include fostering constructive dialogue between the EU and the US/NATO, clarity and credible implementation plans to support strategic autonomy, enhancing cooperation between the EU and NATO, and revitalizing ties with the UK, which remains a crucial security partner despite Brexit.