2026年第二季度全球经济状况调查报告_11页_1mb

Global Economic Conditions Survey Report: Q2, 2026 Summary

Core Content

The ACCA and IMA Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) for Q2 2026 highlights a mixed economic landscape, with rising cost pressures and moderate confidence recovery among global accountants and CFOs. The Middle East conflict has significantly impacted global supply chains and commodity prices, contributing to heightened economic uncertainty. However, the AI boom is seen as a major positive driver for global growth and financial markets.

Main Findings

Cost Pressures

• Global Cost Increases: Over 76% of accountants globally reported increased operating costs in Q2 2026, a record high.
• CFOs' Cost Concerns: 83% of CFOs experienced increased costs, reflecting a significant rise from Q1.
• Regional Variations:
  • North America: 74% of accountants reported increased costs, with 80% in the U.S.
  • Western Europe: 83% of respondents reported increased costs, almost double the series average.
  • Asia Pacific: 66% of accountants reported increased costs, also above the series average.
• Drivers: The conflict in the Middle East, rising energy and commodity prices, and supply chain disruptions are the main contributors to cost increases.

Confidence Recovery

• Accountants' Confidence: Improved in Q2, but still at a low level by historical standards.
• CFOs' Confidence: Rose slightly but remains below historical averages.
• Confidence Drivers: Relative economic resilience, signs of potential conflict resolution, and the AI boom contributed to the recovery.

Economic Growth and Policy

• Moderate Global Growth: The three key global activity indicators softened in Q2, suggesting a slowdown in growth.
• AI as a Growth Driver: The AI boom has supported global growth and financial markets, with strong corporate earnings and optimism about future benefits.
• Monetary Policy: Central banks are adjusting policies due to inflationary pressures, with the European Central Bank raising interest rates and the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to hike rates by year-end.

Key Risks and Concerns

Economic Risks

• Top Risk: Economic pressures remain the top risk priority (22%), ahead of geopolitical instability (20%) and cybersecurity (14%).
• Inflation Expectations: 72% of respondents expect inflation to rise in their country over the next three months, with 42% anticipating interest rate hikes.
• Corporate Stress: Both FEAR indices improved in Q2, but remain on the high side of readings since 2022.

Cybersecurity Risks

• Systemic Cyber Risks: Cyber threats are now viewed as systemic and existential, linked to AI adoption and third-party dependencies.
• Underestimated Risks: Accountants highlighted the underestimation of risks such as accidental data leaks, cascading risks from software suppliers, and the integration of cybersecurity into broader operational security.

AI and Workforce Implications

• AI as a Double-Edged Sword: While AI is seen as a growth driver, concerns exist about its sustainability and realistic return on investment.
• Workforce Disruption: Many organizations are making irreversible decisions based on unproven AI capabilities, leading to layoffs and staff reductions.
• Implementation Challenges: There is a gap between AI ambitions and execution, with many struggling to integrate AI effectively and align it with competitive expectations.

Structural Challenges

• Operational Coherence: Organizations face the challenge of maintaining coherence amid multiple pressures such as rising costs, talent scarcity, and geopolitical instability.
• Talent Scarcity: Rising labor costs and the shift to remote work have created mentoring gaps and outsourcing trends, affecting the future supply of skilled professionals.
• Demand Uncertainty: Geopolitical tensions and trade policy changes are causing unpredictable demand, impacting small businesses and export-oriented sectors.

Regional Insights

North America

• AI Benefits: Strongly benefiting from the AI boom, with increased IT investment and data center construction.
• GDP Growth: The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimates Q2 growth at 1.7%, down from Q1's 2.1%.
• Confidence: Improved slightly, but still below historical averages.

Asia Pacific

• Confidence Recovery: Confidence and New Orders indices improved significantly, surpassing historical averages.
• AI Exports: The region is a major beneficiary of the AI boom, with increased exports and stock market performance.

Western Europe

• Low Confidence: Confidence remains low, with the UK particularly affected.
• Energy Dependency: As a large net importer of energy, the region faces significant cost pressures.
• AI Impact: Less benefit from the AI boom compared to other regions.

Conclusion

The Q2 2026 survey indicates that while the global economy is showing signs of resilience and some recovery in confidence, economic pressures and uncertainty remain the dominant themes. The Middle East conflict continues to exert a strong influence on cost and inflation dynamics, while the AI boom is seen as a key growth driver. However, the sustainability and governance of AI investments, along with the interconnected risks of cost, talent, and geopolitical instability, are critical challenges for organizations. The outcome of the Middle East conflict and the actions of central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, will be crucial in shaping the economic outlook for the second half of 2026.