2018澳大利亚房地产市场展望（英文版）_38页_14mb

2018 Australia Real Estate Market Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an outlook on the Australian real estate market for 2018, analyzing the economic and sector-specific trends across office, retail, residential, industrial, and hotel sectors. It highlights the convergence of markets, the impact of technology, and the evolving dynamics of supply and demand.

Economic Outlook

• Growth Composition: Australia's economy is expected to continue growing below long-run averages in 2018, with stable official interest rates.
• Inflation: Low inflation is anticipated, which may limit the scope for further rate cuts.
• GDP Growth: 2017 growth was around 2.25%, with a likely range of 2.25% - 1.5% for 2018.
• Sector Contributions:
  • Housing: Growth peaked in 2016 and is expected to slow down in 2018.
  • Business Investment: Expected to improve, particularly in non-mining sectors like manufacturing and services.
• Currency Impact: Global interest rate increases may put pressure on the AUD, as the RBA may be hesitant to follow suit.

Office Sector

• Convergence from Divergence: 2018 will see a shift towards convergence in office markets, with declining vacancy rates and improving rental growth.
• Sydney and Melbourne: These markets are at their cyclical peak, with slower rental growth expected.
• Resource-Based Markets: Will begin a gradual recovery, with positive effective rental growth.
• Sydney CBD: Office market is expected to shrink in size, with net supply of about -100,000sqm.
• Vacancy Rates:
  • Sydney CBD: Expected to fall to 3.6% from 4.6%.
  • Brisbane and Perth: Vacancy rates will continue to decline, with Perth expected to reach 18% and Brisbane to 14%.
• Net Effective Rent (NER):
  • Sydney: 9 - 11% growth.
  • Melbourne: ~5% face rent growth, with incentives falling to 21% for prime and 18% for secondary.
• Technology Impact:
  • Office demand is being reshaped by technology, with a focus on mobility, customization, and smart buildings.
  • 86% of respondents in the CBRE survey noted that mobility will be the biggest tech enablement.
  • 53% of occupiers want a customised work environment.
  • 84% of landlords expect an increase in smart buildings.

Retail Sector

• Shift to Experience and Convenience: The future of retail is moving towards experiential and lifestyle-oriented models.
• Omnichannel Retail: Retailers are increasingly required to have both physical and online presence.
• Rent Growth:
  • 2017 saw ~13% growth in Sydney CBD prime rents, but this is expected to slow in 2018.
  • Overall retail rent growth is expected to be weak, with ~1% growth for most markets.
• Structural and Cyclical Pressures:
  • Housing cycle has peaked.
  • Population and income growth are slow.
  • Increased competition is challenging traditional retail models.
• E-Commerce Impact:
  • E-commerce is still in its early stages, with consumers not demanding immediate delivery.
  • Last-mile warehousing is expected to expand in 2018 with the entry of major multinational retailers.
  • Retailers are increasingly looking to repurpose existing warehouse spaces for last-mile logistics.

Residential Sector

• Market Stages:
  • Apartment development cycle has peaked.
  • Sydney and Melbourne are at low vacancy rates, better positioned to withstand new supply.
• Price Trends:
  • Prices are expected to fall by 5 - 10% in 2018, consistent with previous market downswings.
  • Price contraction is more evident in inner-city markets.
• Vacancy Rates:
  • Expected to increase across most markets due to new supply.
  • Perth is an outlier with 7% vacancy.
• Impact on Consumers:
  • The price decline will have an indirect wealth impact, keeping a lid on consumer spending.

Industrial & Logistics Sector

• Growth Drivers:
  • E-commerce growth is driving demand for logistics and warehouse space.
  • Transport and 3PL sectors are expected to support rent growth.
• High-Tech Manufacturing:
  • Emerging as a key growth area, requiring less intensive space and a skilled workforce.
  • Assets near highly educated areas like Melbourne's South East and Sydney's Macquarie Park are well-positioned.
• Automation:
  • Limited due to high payback costs and shorter lease terms.
  • 52% of occupiers and 68% of landlords predict increased use of co-working and third-party spaces.
• Last-Mile Warehousing:
  • Expected to expand in 2018, with secondary warehouse spaces at the CBD fringe being utilised.
  • Secondary asset yields are expected to compress due to increased demand for repurposed spaces.

Hotel Sector

• Market Shifts:
  • Markets that lagged in RevPAR growth are expected to recover.
  • Sydney and Melbourne are at their peak, while Brisbane and Perth are expected to see more growth.
• Investor Focus:
  • Investors are likely to turn to markets at the bottom of the cycle, such as Brisbane and Perth.
• Transaction Volume:
  • Hotel investment transactions were at a low in 2017, and this trend is expected to continue in 2018.
• Vacancy and Rents:
  • Perth CBD is expected to see vacancy fall to 18% and prime NER growth.
  • Sydney CBD may see a return to NER growth due to demand and reduced incentives.

Capital Markets

• Yield Compression:
  • Real asset yields are at cyclical lows, with limited room for further compression.
  • Yield softening is expected to occur in 2019, and the decompression cycle will be gradual.
• Investor Strategy:
  • Long-term hold strategies are preferred due to the slow yield compression.
  • Brisbane has emerged as a countercyclical investment opportunity.
  • Canberra and Perth office markets are also being viewed as countercyclical plays.

Risks & Opportunities

• Geographic Convergence:
  • Markets will converge, with relative value shifts.
  • Timing is crucial for countercyclical strategies.
• Technology Risks and Opportunities:
  • Office: Technology will enable more flexible and smart workplaces.
  • Industrial: High-tech manufacturing will replace traditional models.
  • Retail: Online retail will reshape demand, encouraging more service-oriented occupiers.
• Capital Market Risks:
  • Limited yield compression and potential downward pressure on prices.
  • The impact of global interest rate increases is expected to be greater than domestic policy adjustments.

Key Trends and Insights

• Technology as a Disruptor:
  • Affects all sectors, especially office and retail.
  • Focus on mobility, smart buildings, and customer experience.
• Omnichannel Real Estate:
  • Emerging as a key trend, especially in retail and logistics.
• Convergence of Markets:
  • Office, retail, and industrial sectors are becoming more aligned.
• Countercyclical Opportunities:
  • Brisbane, Perth, and Canberra are seen as potential countercyclical investments.