布鲁盖尔研究所-欧盟-印度贸易关系：评估与展望（英）-2021.9-33页_1mb

报告摘要

EU-India Trade Relations: Assessment and Perspectives

Core Content

This document provides an in-depth analysis of the evolving trade and investment relations between the European Union (EU) and India, focusing on the resumption of negotiations following the 2021 EU-India summit. It examines the historical context of these relations, the challenges that led to the suspension of talks in 2013, and the current geopolitical and economic landscape that may influence the future of the EU-India trade and investment agreement.

Main Points

1. Resumption of Negotiations

The EU-India summit in May 2021 marked the resumption of trade and investment negotiations.
The EU and India aim to conclude a balanced, ambitious, comprehensive, and mutually beneficial trade agreement, along with a stand-alone investment protection agreement and a geographical indications (GI) agreement.
These negotiations are driven by the EU's desire to reduce reliance on Chinese manufacturing and India's strategic autonomy goals.

2. India's Economic and Political Background

India has historically pursued strategic autonomy, balancing economic development with geopolitical freedom.
After independence in 1947, India initially adopted import substitution industrialization, which limited its engagement with global markets.
The 1991 economic liberalization marked a shift toward openness, but manufacturing growth remained limited.
The "Make in India" initiative under Prime Minister Narendra Modi aimed to boost manufacturing, but progress has been slow due to domestic credit market issues.
The "Atmanirbhar Bharat" (Self-Reliant India) policy, introduced in 2020, emphasizes indigenous production and strategic trade policies, reducing India's openness to global trade.

3. EU's Strategic Interests

The EU faces challenges with trade relations with the UK and China, prompting interest in closer ties with India.
The EU's trade and investment agenda is shaped by US-China competition, and India is seen as a key partner in the Indo-Pacific region.
The EU has existing agreements with several CPTPP members, such as Japan and Vietnam, and has not expressed interest in joining the CPTPP, unlike the UK.
The EU seeks to diversify its trade partners and expand market access for its services and manufacturing sectors.

4. Key Issues in Previous Negotiations

The 2007-2013 negotiations were suspended due to unresolved issues, including:
- Agriculture: India is highly protective of its agricultural sector, which accounts for 41% of employment and 25% of rural poverty. The EU, on the other hand, has high tariffs on Indian agricultural imports, particularly rice.
- Services: India has some of the most restrictive services trade policies globally, especially in professional services. The EU seeks greater access to India's services market.
- Digital Trade: The EU emphasizes data protection and digital rights, while India has been more cautious in this area.
- Patent Protection: India has traditionally been reluctant to grant strong patent protections, which conflicts with EU intellectual property standards.
- Environment and Labour Rights: The EU advocates for stronger environmental and labor regulations, which India has resisted.

5. Geographical Indications (GIs)

India has granted GIs to 368 products, far fewer than the EU's 3400+.
The EU is interested in expanding GI recognition, particularly in sectors like handicrafts, where India has a comparative advantage.
A separate GI agreement could be concluded, either independently or as part of the broader trade agreement.

6. Global Context and Challenges

The WTO's effectiveness has been undermined by the Doha Development Round stalemate and US challenges to its dispute settlement system.
India has withdrawn from RCEP negotiations, which may indicate a rethinking of its regional economic strategy.
The US-India strategic relationship, especially in defense and technology, is a key factor in shaping the EU's approach to India.

Key Information

India's trade policy has shifted from multilateralism to a more bilateral and strategic approach.
The EU's trade relations with the UK and China are uncertain, increasing the incentive to re-engage with India.
The potential for an EU-India FTA is influenced by geopolitical shifts, economic complementarities, and shared interests in digital trade and innovation.
India's services sector is a major export area, but it remains closed to foreign service providers.
Agriculture remains a sensitive issue, with India resisting EU market access demands.
The EU's domestic demand and the need for export markets are driving its interest in India as a strategic partner.

Way Forward

Three potential paths are outlined for the future of EU-India trade and investment negotiations:

Comprehensive Agreement: Similar to the EU-Vietnam FTA, which includes trade, investment, and GI protections.
Limited Investment Deal: Focused on manufacturing and foreign direct investment (FDI) liberalization.
Reinforced Status Quo: Growing trade and investment relations organically under the existing multilateral framework.

Conclusion

The EU-India trade relations are at a critical juncture, influenced by geopolitical dynamics, economic priorities, and regional competition. While significant challenges remain, the renewed push for an agreement reflects the strategic importance of India to the EU's economic and geopolitical interests in the Indo-Pacific region. The outcome of these negotiations will depend on India's willingness to liberalize its market and the EU's ability to balance its own trade interests with India's strategic autonomy goals.