2026全球汽车行业展望_驾驭分化格局_34页_656kb

> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** GLOBAL AUTOMOBILES # 2026 Outlook: Navigating Divergence 2026 will be a year in which adaptability to BEVs (electric vehicles) and NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) will be tested, but it is highly likely that separate standards will become established for both. We expect to see more active moves by automakers to avoid supply chains overly concentrated in certain regions and to prioritize stable procurement, leading to the fragmentation of BEV and NOA specifications by region. Furthermore, regional disparities in environmental policies will also likely amplify, with both "carrots" (subsidies) and "sticks" (regulations) offered. Europe has already reduced BEV purchase subsidies, and the US has abolished them at the national level. China auto sales likely to decline yoy in 2026, leading to an accelerated export drive. Chinese BEVs are structurally more than $30\%$ lower in cost (primarily due to batteries and eAxles), and we expect that Chinese-made BEVs will rapidly penetrate regions with low tariff levels. China effectively controls the BEV supply chain (holding $72 - 98\%$ of the global market share for batteries and rare earths), which is the source of its cost competitiveness. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks are rising in the semiconductor and rare earth sectors, and there are growing moves, particularly in the US, to develop domestic BEV supply chains, even if it means higher costs. As a result, only high-cost BEVs will likely be available in some developed economies. We introduce a new global auto tariff barometer to track the competitive advantages of Chinese BEVs. Another focus for 2026 is whether consumers prioritize BEVs or NOA. While it is preferable for full-spec NOAA (Level $2++$ or higher) to be operated with BEVs, BEV sales are slowing in Europe and the US, and consumers, while showing interest in Level $2++$ autonomous driving, are turning cautious on purchasing BEVs. In the first half of the 2020s, the P/E of traditional OEMs declined by $50\%$ when the sales share of BEVs rapidly increased to $10\%$ . Towards 2030, if consumer demand for NOA were to increase, we would see downside risks to the valuations of automakers slow to respond to this new technology. We are most bullish on India, as its growing presence is driven by more companies pursuing geographical diversification strategies. We anticipate intensifying competition in the ASEAN/Australia region and maintain a bearish stance on Japan. Our focus stocks by region are: India: Maruti Suzuki, US: GM, China: BYD, South Korea: Kia, Europe: BMW, Japan: Toyota Motor. # Kota Yuzawa +81(3)4587-9863 kota.yuzawa@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. # Tina Hou +86(21)2401-8694 tina.hou@goldmansachs.cn Goldman Sachs (China) Securities Company Limited # Mark Delaney, CFA +1(212)357-0535 mark.delaney@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC # Christian Frenes +44(20)7051-8641 christian.frenes@gs.com Goldman Sachs International # Chandramouli Muthiah +91(22)6616-9344 chandramouli.muthiah@gs.com Goldman Sachs India SPL # Do Hyoung Kim +82(2)3788-1376 dohyoung.kim@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch # Will Bryant +1(212)934-4705 | will.bryant@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC # Ken Kawamoto +81(3)4587-1921 ken.kawamoto@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. # Aman Gupta +1(212)357-1549 aman.s.gupta@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC # Jenny Du +86(21)2401-8978 jenny.x.du@goldmansachs.cn Goldman Sachs (China) Securities Company Limited # Sian Keegan +44(20)7774-3395 sian.keegan@gs.com Goldman Sachs International # Monika Mengting Liu, CFA +44(20)7051-7601 | monika.liu@gs.com Goldman Sachs International # Shivam Kotecha +1(332)245-7822 shivam.kotecha@gs.com Goldman Sachs India SPL Table of Contents Global Autos Team's Investment View 3 China's Automotive Export Drive and ASEAN Competition 4 BEV and NOA Autonomous Driving Out of Sync in 2026 12 Alliances and Consolidations for True Scale 17 Stock performance: BEV and NOA determine traditional automakers' valuations 23 Disclosure Appendix 31 # Global Autos Team's Investment View View by region Exhibit 1: Bullish on India, bearish on Japan Region Sector view Top pick India Domestic demand is activated by GST tax cuts. There is also strength as an export base. Maruti Suzuki USA Margins have upside due to the relaxation of environmental regulations. There are companies leading in autonomous driving. Traditional OEMs will likely benefit in 2026 from reduced emissions rules, a relatively stable US volume backdrop, and likely lower pickup truck inventory for the industry entering 2026 post the Novelis fire. General Motors China It is possible to increase export volumes with cost competitiveness as an advantage. BYD Korea HEV and new model pipeline along with weak KRW will be a tailwind. Yet lack of clarity in autonomous driving strategy is a concern. Strong profit growth more likely in 2027, and 2026 to show flattish growth. Kia Europe The postponement of environmental regulations is a positive. Competition with Chinese BEVs is intensifying. BMW Japan Relaxation of environmental regulations and a weak yen are tailwinds. Hybrids are prioritized in autonomous driving. Competition with Chinese BEVs is intensifying. Toyota Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Global valuation comparison Exhibit 2: Divergence among stocks could become apparent Company Currency Rating Jan 05Price TargetPrice ReturnPotential MarketCap.($) TradingVolume($) P/E P/B FY24(x) FY25E(x) FY26E(x) FY24(x) FY25E(x) FY26E(x) Assemblers Nissan ¥ Neutral 393 350 -11% 9,273 70 -2.1 -3.4 23.8 0.28 0.30 0.30 Toyota ¥ Buy 3,399 3,800 12% 341,326 437 9.5 12.4 9.9 0.96 0.87 0.73 Mitsubishi ¥ Sell 372 350 -6% 3,457 19 13.0 35.1 13.7 0.57 0.56 0.55 Mazda ¥ Neutral 1,246 1,300 4% 5,003 41 6.9 28.3 8.8 0.44 0.44 0.43 Honda ¥ Buy 1,558 1,850 19% 52,300 144 8.7 15.5 8.1 0.72 0.65 0.61 Suzuki ¥ Buy 2,392 3,050 28% 29,870 90 11.1 11.7 10.2 2.05 1.52 1.38 Subaru ¥ Buy 3,445 4,300 25% 16,056 65 7.5 12.3 8.9 0.94 0.90 0.84 Yamaha Motor ¥ Neutral 1,176 1,000 -15% 7,612 49 10.7 19.2 9.8 0.99 0.96 0.90 Japan Average 7% 8.2 16.4 11.7 0.87 0.77 0.72 BMW € Buy 93.9 112.0 19% 61,694 102 8.1 8.7 8.0 0.62 0.60 0.56 Mercedes-Benz € Buy 60.4 73.0 21% 68,171 138 5.9 10.8 7.4 0.65 0.61 0.57 Stellantis € Neutral 9.6 9.0 -6% 32,594 270 4.2 13.7 6.2 0.35 0.37 0.36 Stellantis (NYSE) € Neutral 11.3 10.0 -12% 38,368 176 4.9 16.2 7.3 0.41 0.44 0.42 Porsche € Neutral 46.9 46.0 -2% 25,019 0 11.9 114.7 19.0 1.85 1.86 1.79 Renault € Neutral 35.6 36.0 1% 12,332 42 4.0 73.1 4.3 0.31 0.45 0.43 Volkswagen € Neutral 120.8 106.0 -12% 24,903 94 4.8 9.2 5.2 0.26 0.26 0.24 Ferrari € Buy 321.2 391.0 22% 68,799 1 38.0 36.1 30.5 16.36 14.34 12.05 Aston Martin £ Neutral 64.7 61.0 -6% 884 379 -1.9 -2.0 -5.9 71.48 131.48 169.50 Europe Average 6% 11.0 38.0 11.5 2.91 2.64 2.29 Ford $ Neutral 13.5 14.00 4% 52,717 1,094 7.3 11.6 8.2 1.21 2.01 2.13 General Motors $ Buy 83.2 93.00 12% 77,567 677 7.8 8.0 7.2 1.49 1.21 1.11 Tesla $ Neutral 451.7 420.00 -7% 1,502,172 17,010 221.4 411.2 258.2 21.65 19.60 18.21 Rivian $ Neutral 19.6 18.00 -8% 23,939 760 -4.6 -6.3 -6.3 3.02 5.39 11.70 US Average 3% 58.0 106.1 66.8 6.84 7.05 8.29 Hyundai W Neutral 304,500 330,000 8% 43,094 205 6.3 7.3 7.3 0.67 0.62 0.57 Kia W Buy 122,600 150,000 22% 33,083 79 5.0 6.3 6.0 0.87 0.79 0.72 Korea Average 15% 5.6 6.8 6.6 0.77 0.70 0.65 SAIC RMB Sell 15.26 8.40 -45% 25,086 117 106.0 16.1 14.5 0.61 0.59 0.58 BYD HKD Buy 95.80 141.00 47% 45,327 285 19.2 22.3 15.6 4.24 3.15 2.71 BYD(A) RMB Buy 98.11 144.00 47% 76,238 365 21.3 24.8 17.8 4.62 3.59 3.10 Guangzhou HKD Neutral 4.08 2.20 -46% 1,474 18 47.3 -17.6 10.9 0.35 0.33 0.33 Guangzhou(A) RMB Sell 8.19 4.00 -51% 8,648 47 102.8 -38.2 24.4 0.74 0.75 0.73 Xpeng HKD Buy 76.65 96.00 25% 15,389 74 -26.1 -188.2 52.8 4.65 4.90 4.57 Xpeng $ Buy 20.15 25.00 24% 15,747 120 -3.4 -24.7 6.9 0.61 0.64 0.60 China Average 0% 38.1 -29.4 20.4 2.26 1.99 1.80 Bajaj INR Buy 9,497.5 10,200.0 7% 29,398 35 35.9 31.7 28.1 10.80 8.25 7.79 Hero Moto INR Sell 5,985.5 4,770.0 -20% 13,264 45 30.2 26.0 23.3 6.66 6.05 5.61 Mahindra & Mahindra INR Buy 3,790.3 4,300.0 13% 50,379 79 42.9 38.4 29.0 8.71 7.40 6.20 Maruti Suzuki INR Buy* 17,155.0 20,200.0 18% 59,739 59 39.3 36.5 33.3 6.27 5.73 5.09 Tata Motors INR Neutral 373.6 365.0 -2% 15,235 127 5.0 6.7 133.6 1.44 1.14 1.22 India Average 3% 30.7 27.8 49.5 6.78 5.71 5.18 * on Regional Conviction List Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research # China's Automotive Export Drive and ASEAN Competition # Impact of China slowdown Our China auto team forecasts that China's auto retail sales will decline by $1.8\%$ yoy in 2026 and by $5.2\%$ yoy in 2027 (after a $4.5\%$ increase in 2025), which they expect to accelerate the export drive (6.7 mn units in 2025 $\rightarrow$ 7.4 mn units in 2026, $+10\%$ ). Chinese BEVs are structurally more than $30\%$ lower in cost (primarily due to batteries/eAxles), and rapid penetration of Chinese-made BEVs is anticipated in regions with low tariff levels. China effectively controls the BEV supply chain (holding 72-98% global share in batteries and rare earths), which is the source of its cost competitiveness. Exhibit 3: Vehicle exports from China surge Japan and China auto exports Source: Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, CAAM, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Exhibit 4: China exports account for over $10\%$ share of global NEV demand Ratio of exported vehicles to total global demand Source: Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, CAAM, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Even by 2025, Chinese BEVs have already increased their global presence. Regarding sales momentum and share trends in the top 30 countries by BEV sales volume, BEV sales are increasing in most regions, with the exception of some areas like Canada and Sweden, and the share of Chinese BEV manufacturers is also rising in the majority of countries/regions. Exhibit 5: BEV momentum varies by region BEV sales by region BEV Total sales (units) BEV sales (units) BEV penetration (%) China OEMs BEV penetration (Non-China OEMs BEV penetration BEV mix by China OEMs (%) YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM China 15% 13% 30% 5% 5% 1% 5% 1% 0% -1% 5% 2% United States 6% -14% -35% -54% -3% -7% 0% 0% -2% -7% 0% 0% Germany 14% 13% 44% 14% 5% 1% 1% 0% 4% 1% 2% -1% United Kingdom 11% 270% 22% -49% 5% 2% 2% 0% 2% 2% 6% -1% France 2% 61% 68% 13% 8% 2% 0% 0% 8% 2% -1% 0% South Korea 21% 14% 54% -33% 7% -3% 1% 0% 6% -3% 4% 1% India 3% 11% 69% 14% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% Netherlands -17% 21% 26% 11% 14% 1% 4% -1% 9% 2% 5% -3% Norway 14% 2% 0% -23% 0% -4% -1% 5% 2% -9% -2% 7% Vietnam -7% 23% - 47% 35% 4% 4% -1% 31% 5% - -6% Turkey 26% 9% 76% -2% 3% -1% 0% 0% 3% -1% 0% 0% Belgium 1% 19% 2% -1% 2% -2% 2% 1% 0% -3% 8% 5% Thailand 11% 4% 109% 3% 9% 2% 9% 2% 0% 0% 2% 2% Denmark 12% 33% 24% -16% 6% -5% -1% 2% 7% -7% -4% 5% Sweden 0% 24% 0% -8% 1% -2% -1% 0% 1% -2% -2% 1% Spain 16% 40% 95% -10% 3% -2% 1% 0% 2% -2% 6% 4% Canada 1% -2% -29% 36% -2% 2% 0% 0% -2% 2% -2% -4% Australia 7% 3% 26% -41% 1% -4% 1% -1% 0% -3% 6% 15% Italy 6% 91% 26% -14% 1% -1% 0% 0% 1% -1% 0% 0% Indonesia -15% 0% 193% 240% 13% 12% 12% 12% 0% 0% 21% 21% Austria 33% 21% 36% -4% 3% 0% 1% 1% 2% -1% 2% 4% Brazil 3% 8% 21% -3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% -2% Portugal 15% 31% 27% -5% 5% 0% 3% 2% 2% -2% 7% 7% Japan -2% 42% 12% -23% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7% 3% Switzerland 1% 23% 18% -19% 3% -3% 2% -1% 1% -2% 9% -4% Israel 28% 3% -81% -93% -15% -22% -9% -15% -6% -6% 33% 22% Poland 19% 19% 303% 1% 4% 0% 2% 0% 2% -1% 29% 5% Taiwan -8% 14% -58% -71% -4% -9% 0% 0% -4% -9% 0% 0% Malaysia 1% -21% 186% 32% 3% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1% -11% -11% Ireland 9% -24% 13% -60% 1% -5% 1% 6% 0% -11% 4% 45% Source:MarkLines,Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research # Timing to be more aware of geopolitical risks On the other hand, geopolitical risks are rising in the semiconductor and rare earth sectors, leading to movements, particularly in the US, to foster domestic BEV supply chains, even if at a higher cost. As a result, only high-cost BEVs will likely be offered in developed countries. The adoption rate of BEVs is highly likely to slow down in the short term. Countries will likely want to avoid supply chains that are overly dependent on specific nations, even if it takes time. Exhibit 6: The cost competitiveness of Chinese BEVs is high BEV powertrain cost comparison Source: MarkLines, Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Suppliers of BEV-related components Exhibit 7: The supply chain is concentrated in China China market share Trade condition Battery cell 80% Cathode 85% (Cathode LFP) 98% Proposed technology export contril in Jan 2025 Anode 90% Graphite refine 98% Export licensing in Dec 2023 Lithium refine 72% Proposed technology export control in Jan 2025 Graphite refine 90% Rare earths 92% Export ban of rare earth extraction and separation technologies in Dec 2023 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Battery cell Cathode (Cathode LFP) Anode Graphite refine Lithium refine Graphite refine Rare earths Source: IEA, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research # Japanese auto industry promotes local production This structure bears some resemblance to the Japanese automotive industry in 1980-1990. At that time, as Japanese exports rapidly expanded, there was a strong desire, especially in the US, to protect domestic automotive industry jobs. Following the Plaza Accord in 1985, the appreciation of the yen led to a plateau in exports from Japan, prompting Japanese automakers to significantly shift towards overseas local production. Exhibit 8: Overseas production ratio has risen sharply Japanese automakers' production and exports Source: Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Exhibit 9: Opening plants in North America and Asia Japanese automakers' production volume by region Source: Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research # Introducing our global auto tariff barometer This time, China's BEV situation involves not only employment issues but also significant economic security elements related to global supply chains. If tariffs and localized production regulations materialize, Chinese manufacturers will likely accelerate their expansion into overseas production bases. Notably, changes in trade policy, such as increased localized production requirements by country, have already occurred in Russia and Mexico over the past 12-18 months. Our tariff barometer, which indexes the impact of tariffs in regions excluding China and the US by sales volume weighting, shows that tariff rates were on an upward trend from 2024 to 2025. Although there are regional disparities, from a global perspective, the $30\%$ cost advantage of Chinese BEVs is largely neutralized by tariff policies. In scenarios where tariffs significantly exceed $30\%$ , the export competitiveness of Chinese BEV manufacturers diminish in relative terms. Conversely, should tariffs fall below $30\%$ , the export drive of Chinese-made BEVs will likely accelerate. Exhibit 10: The global average tariff rate on China BEVs is c.30% Global auto tariffs on China BEVs (excluding China and the US) Calculated based on a weighted average of calendar year sales volume and automobile tariff rates by region, excluding China and the US. Source:Reuters,Nikkei,Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Exhibit 11: Tariff policy is fluid Auto tariffs in major countries Region Tariff Trend in Tariff Note US 137.5% ↑ 137.5% for EVs / 62.5% for non EVs Canada 106% ↑ Mexico 50% ↑ Updated on Dec. 11, 2025 EU 18-45% ↑ Brazil 18% ↑ 35% by 2026 Russia 15% ↑ Raised recycling fee on imported vehicles Indonesia 29% ↓ 0% if local production India 70-100% ↓ 15% if local production Thailand 0% → With local production requirement Australia 0% → Japan 0% → UK 10% → Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, IEA, MarkLines, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research If tariffs and localization regulations materialize, the expansion of Chinese manufacturers' overseas production bases will accelerate. Key devices like batteries are expected to be imported from China for the time being (India also has a $5\%$ tariff on battery imports), and overseas BEV production costs are expected to remain competitive. In case of USA however, tariffs and incentives are affecting the import calculation for US OEMs. Many of the US OEMs are looking to produce in the US or import from other countries besides China. Ford is still going to make LFP batteries in the US, and Tesla is now making LFP in the US too. Exhibit 12: BEV exports to Europe and Asia are brisk BEV exports and imports Source: IEA, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research In this environment, finished vehicle manufacturers with a strong presence in ASEAN, Australia, and Europe, in our view, will be increasingly caught up in intensifying competition. Furthermore, some traditional automakers have begun to expand sales of Chinese-made BEVs through their overseas dealer networks (one of the current weaknesses of Chinese BEV manufacturers is their sales network). Nissan and Mazda, for example, are already utilizing platforms from Chinese local partners to begin exporting to Europe and Asia. For Kia, it has taken a route to aggressively use China capacity as an export hub into key markets like Latin America and the Middle East. For instance, Kia exported $68\%$ of its China factory volume in 11M25 (for HMC it is $34\%$ ). It is also interesting to note that Renault management mentioned that the company sources actively from Chinese suppliers for Twingo. Exhibit 13: Leveraging costs in China Japanese automakers' China-developed models Mazda EZ-6 Changan Deepal SL03 Powertrain REEV/BEV REEV/BEV MSRP (Rmb) 119,800 129,900 MSRP (USD) 16,770 18,190 Engine size 1.5L 1.5L Battery Chemistry LFP LFP Battery Size 19/28kWh, 58/69 kWh 19/28kWh, 58/69 kWh Length (mm) 4,921 4,820 Width (mm) 1,890 1,890 Height (mm) 1,491 1,480 *REEV/BEV battery is respectively provided by CALB/CATL Nissan N7 Dongfeng 007 Powertrain BEV REEV/BEV MSRP (Rmb) 119,000 115,900 MSRP (USD) 16,660 16,230 Engine size - 1.5L Battery Chemistry LFP LFP Battery Size 58/73 kWh 28 kWh, 58/73 kWh Length 4,930 4,880 Width 1,895 1,895 Height 1,487 1,460 Mazda EZ-60 Changan Deepal S07 Powertrain REEV/BEV REEV/BEV MSRP (Rmb) 119,000 149,900 MSRP (USD) 16,660 20,986 Battery Chemistry LFP/NMC LFP/NMC Battery Size 69/80 kWh 69/80 kWh Length 4,850 4,750 Width 1,935 1,930 Height 1,620 1,625 Source: Company data, MarkLines, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Nissan N6 Powertrain REEV MSRP (Rmb) 99,900 MSRP (USD) 13,990 Engine size 1.5L Battery Chemistry LFP Battery Size 21 kWh Length 4,831 Width 1,885 Exhibit 14: Domestic China to be the focus for the time being N7 sales forecasts Source: IHS Global Insight, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Exhibit 15: Aiming to also export to Thailand EZ-6 sales forecasts Source: IHS Global Insight, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research # Focus on Price Discipline in the UK and Australia This year will be crucial for Chinese BEV manufacturers to maintain price discipline in regions where they are increasing sales, given the stagnant domestic sales environment in China. In light of recent market share trends, we will track retail prices of BEVs in the UK and Australia on a monthly basis (although discounts are common in the automotive industry, this analysis will not consider incentives). The UK ranks 4th globally in BEV sales, and Australia ranks 18th (based on 2025 figures, partly estimated). We will extract the top 10 best-selling models in each region, separating them into Chinese and non-Chinese brands. As a result, we will be comparing models with different powertrains and vehicle classes, but our focus will be on tracking monthly price trends. Exhibit 16: Retail prices trend in UK Non China players Size (mm) 2026 Maker Brand Model PT Body Height Length Width Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Ford Ford Puma ICE SUV 1,550 4,186 1,930 22,497 Ford Ford Transit Custom ICE/NEV Van 1,968 5,050 2,275 34,140 Hyundai Kia Sportage ICE SUV 1,650 4,515 2,100 26,450 Nissan Nissan Qashqai ICE SUV 1,625 4,425 2,084 25,613 PSA Vauxhall Corsa ICE Hatchback 1,433 4,060 1,960 15,495 Volkswagen Volkswagen Golf ICE Hatchback 1,483 4,282 1,789 23,295 Ford Ford Transit ICE Van 2,674 6,704 2,474 47,619 Nissan Nissan Juke ICE SUV 1,593 4,210 1,983 17,830 BMW Mini Cooper ICE Hatchback 1,464 4,036 1,970 26,265 Volvo Volvo XC40 ICE SUV 1,632 4,440 1,873 35,840 Chinese players Size (mm) 2026 Maker Brand Model PT Body Height Length Width Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun SAIC MG ZS ICE SUV 1,635 4,430 2,087 17,999 SAIC MG HS ICE SUV 1,664 4,655 2,066 18,996 Chery Jaecoo Jaecoo 7 ICE SUV 1,680 4,500 1,865 27,995 BYD BYD Seal U PHEV SUV 1,670 4,775 2,085 29,789 Chery Omoda Omoda 5 ICE SUV 1,588 4,373 2,101 21,490 SAIC MG 3 BEV Hatchback 1,502 4,113 2,014 14,999 SAIC MG 4 BEV Hatchback 1,504 4,287 2,060 20,349 BYD BYD Seal BEV Sedan 1,460 4,800 2,150 32,990 Geely Polestar Polestar 4 BEV SUV 1,534 4,840 2,139 58,900 Source: Autotrader, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Exhibit 17: Retail prices trend in Australia Non China players Size (mm) 2026 Maker Brand Model PT Body Height Length Width Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Ford Ford Puma ICE SUV 1,550 4,186 1,930 22,497 Ford Ford Transit Custom ICE/NEV Van 1,968 5,050 2,275 34,140 Hyundai Kia Sportage ICE SUV 1,650 4,515 2,100 26,450 Nissan Nissan Qashqai ICE SUV 1,625 4,425 2,084 25,613 PSA Vauxhall Corsa ICE Hatchback 1,433 4,060 1,960 15,495 Volkswagen Volkswagen Golf ICE Hatchback 1,483 4,282 1,789 23,295 Ford Ford Transit ICE Van 2,674 6,704 2,474 47,619 Nissan Nissan Juke ICE SUV 1,593 4,210 1,983 17,830 BMW Mini Cooper ICE Hatchback 1,464 4,036 1,970 26,265 Volvo Volvo XC40 ICE SUV 1,632 4,440 1,873 35,840 Chinese players Size (mm) 2026 Maker Brand Model PT Body Height Length Width Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun SAIC MG ZS ICE SUV 1,635 4,430 2,087 17,999 SAIC MG HS ICE SUV 1,664 4,655 2,066 18,996 Chery Jaecoo Jaecoo 7 ICE SUV 1,680 4,500 1,865 27,995 BYD BYD Seal U PHEV SUV 1,670 4,775 2,085 29,789 Chery Omoda Omoda 5 ICE SUV 1,588 4,373 2,101 21,490 SAIC MG 3 BEV Hatchback 1,502 4,113 2,014 14,999 SAIC MG 4 BEV Hatchback 1,504 4,287 2,060 20,349 BYD BYD Seal BEV Sedan 1,460 4,800 2,150 32,990 Geely Polestar Polestar 4 BEV SUV 1,534 4,840 2,139 58,900 Source: Carsales, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research # There is also a way to leverage China's component competitiveness While this is currently in the form of finished vehicle exports, in the future, examples of adopting cost-competitive Chinese automotive parts at overseas production bases will likely emerge. This is highly likely to pose a threat to Japanese automotive parts manufacturers that generate significant profits in Asia. Exhibit 18: Presence in Asia to decline Japanese automakers' Asia sales mix Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Exhibit 19: Forecasting lower parts earnings Japanese automakers' Asia earnings outlook Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research # Predicting India's rising presence Meanwhile, we believe that India's presence may increase as a buffer to mitigate dependence on China by adhering to "Make in India" (the so-called China + 1 strategy). Currently, India does not possess abundant natural resources (lithium and rare earths) necessary for the BEV industry, and the development of its battery industry has just begun. However, India differs somewhat from China in that it is fostering multiple powertrain options, ranging from ICE, HEV, and biofuels to BEVs. We believe that by announcing GST tax reductions on September 22, 2025, India aims to accelerate domestic motorization, achieve economies of scale, and ultimately drive exports. While India's export volume is currently limited to 800,000 units, this number will likely exceed 1 million units soon (China is over 6 million units, Japan is 5 million units). Exhibit 20: India sales are strong Weekly sales Source: Vahan, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Exhibit 21: India to outperform Auto sales outlook by region (yoy) Source: IHS Global Insight, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research # BEV and NOA Autonomous Driving Out of Sync in 2026 # NOA changes the competitive landscape Another focus for 2026 is the extent to which consumers will accept forces opposing the close relationship between BEVs and autonomous driving. Full-spec NOA (Level 2++ and above) requires high-performance semiconductors and a refreshed E/E architecture to zonal, leading to higher vehicle power consumption (and naturally, costs increasing by several thousand dollars per vehicle for ADAS system). Operation with BEVs equipped with large batteries is considered desirable. Exhibit 22: Deployment plans for Level 2+ and above in developed countries Our forecast by automaker Level 2+ 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Tesla → Rivian → GM → Ford → Toyota → Honda → Nissan → SUBARU → Hyundai → VW → Daimler → BMW → Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research However, BEV sales are slowing in Europe and the US, and consumers, while interested in Level 2++ autonomous driving, may be cautious about purchasing BEVs. Indeed, Ford announced a $19.5 bn (of which $5.5 bn cash) loss related to BEV assets in December and stated a policy to expand its HEV product lineup. Exhibit 23: BEV mix has declined Sales mix in the US Source: Autodata, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Exhibit 24: Weak US BEV sales Sales yoy Source: Autodata, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Exhibit 25: Demand for ADAS is outpacing the penetration of BEVs and PHEVs Demand for L2 or higher and NEV sales mix by region Source: IHS Global Insight, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research # Is the world's electricity supply sufficient? Furthermore, global electricity consumption by BEVs is projected to increase from $0.7\%$ in 2024 to $2.5\%$ in 2030. Even if new BEV sales plateau, the number of BEVs in operation is entering a phase of high single-digit percentage growth. Amid global concerns about electricity supply due to aggressive data center investments, some countries and regions may find it difficult to encourage BEV expansion. In fact, BEV purchase subsidies in Europe and the US have halved from 2020 to 2024 (note that the US IRA purchase subsidy is now zero), with China's subsidies continuing to grow. In Europe, the EU recently proposed to subsize demand for small BEV built in the EU. Exhibit 26: BEV electricity consumption is increasing BEV electricity consumption ratio by region Source: IEA, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Exhibit 27: BEV subsidies have declined in Europe and the US BEV purchase subsidies in three main regions (US$ bn) Source: IEA, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research # Multiple approaches to NOA also exist In response to this complex economic environment, Honda and SUBARU are preparing to offer NOA in hybrid vehicles by 2027. Whether this decision is correct in the medium term remains questionable. This is because it can be seen that manufacturers who are behind in E/E architecture and E2E autonomous driving development are prioritizing short-to-medium-term profits. # Exhibit 28: E/E architecture is changing considerably Evolution of E/E architecture Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Technology trends by automaker (partly GSe) Exhibit 29: Traditional automakers lag in E/E upgrades 2024-2025 SDV zone E/E OS ADAS SoC GM USA Developing Developing In house NA Ford USA Developing Developing NA NA Tesla USA Completed Completed In house in house Rivian USA Completed Completed NA Nvidia/in house Hyundai Korea Developing Developing NA Nvidia Toyota Japan Developing Developing In house Renesas/Nvidia Honda Japan Developing Developing In house Renesas/Qualcomm Nissan Japan Developing Developing NA Qualcomm BYD China Completed Completed In house Nvidia/Horizon NIO China Completed Completed NA Nvidia Xpeng China Completed Completed NA Nvidia Li Auto China Completed Completed NA Nvidia Xiaomi China Completed Completed In house Nvidia VW EU Developing Developing In house Mobileye/Qualcomm/Horizon BMW EU Completed Completed In house Qualcomm Mercedes EU Completed Completed In house Nvidia Stellantis EU Developing Developing In house Qualcomm/Foxconn Renault EU Developing Developing NA Qualcomm Source: Company data, MarkLines, Nikkei Automotive, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Nevertheless, the fundamental premise that BEVs and NOA will become mainstream in the medium to long term remains unchanged, and the growth expectations for Tesla and new Chinese BEV manufacturers pursuing this path are consistently high. Also ultimately, it is highly likely that automakers will integrate a licensed software within their vehicles. Per company releases, currently we believe Helm, Wayve, Applied Intuition, Mobileye, and Rivian have options to license/source, with Ford suggesting Waymo for L4 licensing and Toyota in discussions with Waymo. However, such manufacturers often have high earnings volatility, making it difficult to forecast consistent shareholder returns in the short term. Moreover, NOA is still in its developmental stages. Unexpected accidents and policy change risks must always be considered. Key events for E2E Exhibit 30: Transformer inflection point Key events </tr