2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Benin_Third_Review_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_Arrangement_and_Request_for_Waiver_of_Nonobservance_of_Performance_Criterion_92页_1mb

报告摘要

IMF Country Report No. 18/364: Benin

Core Content

This document outlines the IMF's Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement with Benin, which was completed on December 6, 2018, and the approval of a US$22.0 million disbursement. The review also included Benin's request for a waiver of the non-observation of the performance criterion on the non-accumulation of new domestic arrears. The total disbursements under the ECF arrangement now amount to SDR 63.668 million (about US$88.1 million).

The three-year ECF-supported program, approved on April 7, 2017, aims to support economic and financial reforms, raise living standards, and preserve macroeconomic stability. The program is well-aligned with the Government Action Program (GAP) for 2016–21, showing strong ownership by the authorities.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Economic Performance and Outlook

Growth momentum continues: Driven by strong port activity, high cotton production, and the recovery of the Nigerian economy.
2018 growth: Preliminary estimates indicate growth at 6.5%, with inflation at 1.0%.
2019 growth: Projected at 6.5%, supported by continued public investment and higher external demand from Nigeria.
Inflation: Expected to stay below the WAEMU 3% limit.
Fiscal consolidation: The budget deficit is expected to remain below 3% of GDP in 2019 and beyond, in line with the WAEMU convergence criterion.

2. Fiscal Performance

End-June 2018 fiscal results: The fiscal deficit was CFAF 129.3 billion, well below the initial forecast of CFAF 183.9 billion.
Revenue performance: Total revenue reached CFAF 475.1 billion, exceeding the program target of CFAF 445.5 billion.
Tax revenue shortfalls: Customs and tax revenues fell short by CFAF 5.6 billion and CFAF 20.6 billion, respectively.
Non-tax revenue overperformance: Driven by royalty payments from mobile phone companies.
Wage bill management: Measures were taken to rationalize the wage bill without reducing the number of civil servants or their base salary, expected to save 0.5% of GDP in 2019.

3. Debt Sustainability

Debt ratio: Increased from 30.5% in 2014 to 54.4% in 2017, mainly due to domestic debt.
Debt sustainability outlook: Expected to start declining from 2019.
Debt reprofiling: A step in the right direction, helping to reduce interest costs and maturity.
Need for a debt strategy update: To integrate all objectives and ensure long-term sustainability.

4. Growth and Inclusion

Private sector participation: Needs to increase as the main growth engine, especially with fiscal consolidation.
Universal health insurance (ARCH): To be implemented in 2019, with full operation expected in 2020–21.
Inclusive growth: Challenges persist in reducing poverty, despite macroeconomic stability.

5. Governance and Anti-Corruption

Public financial management (PFM): Weaknesses could be addressed by improving project selection, feasibility studies, and public procurement processes.
Anti-corruption framework: The authorities agreed to align it with the UN Convention against Corruption and prepare for the February 2019 AML/CFT assessment.
Legal reforms: A new electoral code was passed in September 2018, mandating asset and income disclosure for election candidates.

Program Conditionality and Safeguards

The 2019 budget aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to below 3% of GDP.
The waiver for the non-accumulation of new domestic arrears was granted due to institutional oversight.
The Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) sets out appropriate policies to achieve the program's objectives.
Structural benchmarks (SBs) include the elimination of selected tax expenditures and an audit of past debt to domestic suppliers.

Key Documents and Attachments

Press Release: Announced the completion of the third review and the disbursement.
Staff Report: Contains the background, recent developments, outlook, and policy discussions.
Letter of Intent, MEFP, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding: Will be separately released.

Supporting Measures

Wage bill rationalization: Includes biometric census, bancarization, and elimination of non-wage benefits.
Debt management: Transition to treasury single account, improved cash flow forecasts, and matching short-term instruments with liquidity needs.
Credit bureau and legal reforms: Steps are being taken to improve credit risk management, foreclosure procedures, and collateral registries.

Risks

Short-term risks: Parliamentary elections in March 2019 may create spending pressures.
Medium-term risks: Growth and fiscal sustainability are key concerns, especially if revenue mobilization fails to generate substantial gains.
Financial market risks: Potential tightening of conditions on domestic and international markets could increase debt service costs.

Conclusion

The IMF's Third Review confirmed that Benin is on track to meet the ECF-supported program targets and that the waiver for the performance criterion was justified. The program conditionality and safeguards are in place to support fiscal consolidation, debt sustainability, and inclusive growth. Continued governance improvements and anti-corruption efforts are essential to ensure the long-term success of the program.