2022-05-31-仲量联行-城市和房地产脱碳（EN）_64页_8mb

Decarbonizing Cities and Real Estate: Key Findings and Recommendations

1. Introduction & Context

• Urgency of Action: The IPCC report (2022) confirms that global emissions peaked in 2019 and must decline by 43% by 2030 to limit warming to 1.5°C. Cities, responsible for 60%–78% of city-wide emissions, are driving global decarbonization efforts.
• Real Estate Role: Buildings contribute significantly to emissions (median 60% of city emissions) and require systemic changes, including retrofitting existing stock (80% of future buildings currently exist).

2. Buildings: Core to Net-Zero Goals

• Emissions Contribution: Buildings account for 60% of global carbon emissions, with mature cities (e.g., London at 78%) facing immense challenges due to aging infrastructure.
• Retrofit Challenge: Current renovation rates (~1–2% annually) must accelerate to >3% to meet 2050 targets. Examples:
  • Paris: Aims to retrofit 40,000 homes/year by 2030.
  • London: Requires 100,000 homes and 15,000 workplaces retrofitted by 2050.
• Opportunity: Retrofits can unlock supply gaps for NZC buildings while reducing operational costs.

3. City Policy Approaches: ‘Carrots’ vs. ‘Sticks’

Regulatory Tools ⚖️

• Building Performance Standards:

  • Examples: New York (Net-Zero Energy by 2030), Copenhagen (Carbon-neutral by 2025).
  • Action: Minimum energy efficiency standards (e.g., LEED certifications) linked to rent control and financial penalties for non-compliance.

• Embodied Carbon Focus: Paris and Singapore pioneer circular economy principles, requiring circular design and carbon-neutral construction by 2030/2035.

• Electrification: San Francisco mandates all-electric new construction (2021).

Incentives & Accelerators 🚀

• Economic Incentives:

  • Financing: Programs like Singapore’s Green Building Masterplan offer tax credits and low-interest loans.
  • Subsidies: Dubai’s Shams Dubai incentivizes solar installations; Tokyo’s Carbon Reduction Reporting Program supports renewable adoption.

• Knowledge Sharing📚:

  • Demonstrator Projects: Copenhagen’s Energy Leap initiative partners with building owners for retrofits.
  • Incubators & Accelerators: Paris’ CSTB Lab incubates green tech startups.

4. Energy Transition & Green Economy

• Grid Decarbonization⚡️:

  • Urban Green Energy Targets: Munich (100% renewables by 2025), Montreal (99% renewables).
  • Offsite Renewables: Melbourne’s MREP facilitates large-scale solar farms via PPAs; Seattle’s district energy systems integrate renewables.

• Challenges:

  • Limited local renewable generation (e.g., London’s <1% onsite renewables in 2019).
  • Reliance on national grid modernization for deeper decarbonization.

5. Beyond Carbon: Resilience & Circular Economy 🌱

• Circular Economy Goals♻️:

  • Amsterdam: Aims to reuse 50% of materials by 2030.
  • Los Angeles: Targets zero-waste (90% landfill diversion by 2025).

• Biodiversity & Urban Greening🌳:

  • Global Initiatives: C40 Cities’ Urban Nature Declaration (30% urban land designated for green spaces by 2030).
  • Benefits: Reduced urban heat islands, stormwater management, and improved air quality.

• Climate Resilience🌊:

  • Vulnerable Cities: Shanghai, Mumbai, Miami face high climate risk scores.
  • Strategies: Singapore’s Sponge City Plan (water absorption); New York’s NYC Accelerator (retrofit funding).

6. Forward-Looking Recommendations

• Ecosystem of Partnerships:

  • Collaborative Models: Align real estate investors, governments, and academia (e.g., Paris’ Doughnut Economics framework).
  • Cross-Border Cooperation: Support Global South cities through technology sharing (e.g., Mexico City’s IKI partnership).

• Policy Harmonization:

  • Standardize carbon reporting (e.g., EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive).
  • Integrate biodiversity metrics into real estate valuations.

• Financial Mechanisms:

  • Leverage ESG-aligned capital (GFANZ pledge: $130T for net-zero investments by 2050).
  • Expand green finance tools (PACE financing, carbon taxes).

7. Key Metrics & Statistics

• Urban Emissions: 60%–78% of city emissions from buildings.
• Retofit Rates: 3% annual increase needed (current ~1–2%).
• Green Building Goals: 80% of buildings must be circular by 2030 in Amsterdam.
• Funding Gap: $275T required globally by 2050 (current ~$9.2T/year).

Concluding Thought

Cities must act decisively by blending regulatory rigor, financial innovation, and collaborative ecosystems to decarbonize real estate sustainably. The next decade is critical for bridging the gap between climate ambition and real-world action.