2014年-世界发展银行全球_Mauritania_Economic_Update_July_2014_25页_2mb

Mauritania Economic Update Summary (July 2014)

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of Mauritania's economic performance between 2013 and the second quarter of 2014, with a focus on macroeconomic trends, fiscal policies, and challenges related to growth and development. It is intended to support policy dialogue between the Government of Mauritania and the World Bank.

Main Economic Trends

Economic Growth

• Real GDP Growth: 6.7% in 2013, a modest slowdown from 7% in 2012, but significantly above the 4.9% average over the last decade.
• Key Sectors:
  • Mining: Continued expansion, particularly in iron ore production (up 20% in 2013), with expectations of further growth in copper, gold, and manufacturing.
  • Services: Accounted for about half of GDP growth, with retail and wholesale trade being the largest subsector.
  • Agriculture: Showed strong rebound from the 2012 drought, with crop production increasing by 31.4% and livestock production recovering.
  • Fishing: Experienced weaker activity, which was offset by growth in other sectors.
• Forecast: Growth is expected to continue over the next three years, with trade, livestock, and iron being key contributors in 2015. The fastest-growing sub-sectors are agriculture, copper, gold, and manufacturing.

Prices and Money

• Inflation: Stabilized at 4.1% in 2013, with a gradual decline since 2010. It is expected to fluctuate around 5% in the near future.
• Monetary Policy: The Central Bank of Mauritania (CBM) used indirect instruments to manage surplus liquidity, which was driven by credit demand from the mining sector.
• Exchange Rate: Depreciated modestly in 2013 and is expected to remain stable in 2014.
• No Dutch Disease: Despite the mining boom, there is no evidence of adverse impacts on industrialization or currency appreciation.

Fiscal Accounts

• Overall Fiscal Balance: Returned to a slight deficit (-1.1% of GDP) in 2013, following a sharp drop in grants after the 2012 drought response.
• Fiscal Revenues: Improved between 2009 and 2013 due to better fiscal administration, expanded tax base, and new taxes.
• Tax Revenue: Increased by 8% in 2013, reaching 22% of GDP.
• Non-Tax Revenue: Remained steady at around 10% of GDP.
• Grants: Dramatically reduced in 2013 (down to 1% of GDP), but international aid still plays a major role in fiscal viability.
• Public Spending:
  • Overall spending as a percentage of GDP decreased from 38% in 2012 to 36% in 2013, expected to reach 35% in 2014.
  • Capital expenditure increased by 24% in 2013 and is projected to remain high in the medium term.
  • Current expenditure is expected to decrease, normalizing at 25% of GDP by 2019.
• Wage Bill: Remains significant at 26% of total revenues, with an increase of 10% in 2013. Non-permanent staff are not fully accounted for in official figures.

Key Challenges

Inclusive Growth

• Despite impressive GDP growth, poverty and unemployment remain high.
• Over two-fifths of the population were below the poverty line in the last decade, with almost half living on less than $2 a day in 2008.
• The government needs to shift focus from resource-based growth to more inclusive growth that reduces inequality and improves living standards.

Economic Diversification and Resource Efficiency

• The economy is heavily dependent on mining exports, which account for about 80% of total exports and 33% of government revenues.
• The challenge is to translate resource wealth into sustained development.
• Agriculture and livestock, which employ two-thirds of the labor force, remain underdeveloped due to low productivity and structural inefficiencies.
• Land reform is a major challenge, with limited reliable data and poor governance in land markets.

International Sectoral Developments

• FDI: Remains a key driver of growth, equivalent to 25% of GDP in 2013, financing the current account deficit.
• Capital Account: Strong net inflows have offset the current account deficit, increasing foreign reserves to 7.1 months of imports.
• Oil Fund: The hydrocarbon fund reached approximately US$115 million in Q1 2014, growing by about $3–4 million per month.
• Global Outlook: Positive for 2014 with GDP growth expected at 6.8%, and over 6% in the medium term. However, external shocks and volatile FDI flows pose risks.

Fiscal and Debt Management

• External Debt: Remains high at about 100% of GDP, with a focus on non-concessional loans to finance investment.
• Domestic Debt: Estimated at 7–8% of GDP, with short-term T-bill interest rates at 3.6% in Q2 2014.
• Debt Management: A National Committee on Public Debt has been reorganized to improve coordination and extend maturities.

Special Sections

Box 1: Productivity and Growth

• Capital productivity is the main driver of GDP growth.
• Total factor productivity (TFP) is volatile and mostly negative, indicating inefficiencies.
• Labor productivity has declined, reflecting poor labor qualification despite increased investment.
• The agricultural sector is crucial for poverty reduction but remains underdeveloped.
• Land reform is essential to improve productivity and governance in agriculture.

Box 2: Mauritania's Outlook and Global Economy

• Positive macroeconomic outlook with expected GDP growth of 6.8% in 2014.
• Trade, livestock, and iron are expected to be the main growth drivers in 2015.
• The fastest-growing sub-sectors are agriculture, copper, gold, and manufacturing.
• The balance of payments is expected to remain negative, with fluctuations in the trade balance due to infrastructure and mining-related imports.
• FDI is expected to slow down gradually over the medium term.

Box 3: World Bank Analytical Work on Wealth Accounting

• The World Bank has conducted analytical work on wealth accounting in Mauritania.
• This work aims to improve understanding of the country's wealth and its use for development.
• It highlights the need for better data and transparency in public spending and resource management.

Conclusions and Recommendations

• The economy is growing, but remains vulnerable to external shocks and requires more inclusive growth.
• Fiscal policies have improved, with a shift toward investment and better management of public finances.
• The mining sector is central to the economy, but diversification and efficiency in resource use are critical for long-term development.
• The government is taking steps to improve oversight of parastatal entities and rationalize public spending.
• Continued monitoring of the current account and FDI flows is essential to ensure macroeconomic stability.
• The World Bank is supporting efforts to improve economic governance and fiscal transparency.