2025-05-22-Bernstein-JD体育时尚股份有限公司（JD）_JD体育这是一场马拉松_而非短跑_16页_1mb

报告摘要

JD Sports reported FY24 results in line with expectations, with revenue at £11.4bn and gross margin at 47.8%.
Q1 trading met expectations but was hampered by a weak US market and promotional pressures.
The company maintains a PBT guidance of £890m for FY24, excluding potential impacts from tariffs and CAPEX changes.

Management Credibility: Concerns over reporting dates, communications, restatements, and limited visibility of management depth until Michael Armstrong’s introduction.
Nike Clearance: Ongoing demand pressure from competitors (Footlocker, FinishLine) and persistent Nike outlet discounting.
Consumer Demand: Weak in the US, with volatility expected in Q2. UK and EU markets show signs of improvement and resilience.

Outperform Rating: Target price of £160 (92% upside) based on 10x PE and 8x EV/EBIT on NTM+1 earnings.
Warren Buffett Model: P/E of 6.8x NTM suggests valuation may be rich for short-term but supports buybacks and margin improvements.

LFL Performance: US LFLs down -5.5%, European and UK markets positive; California shows higher brand awareness.
Nike Discounting: Clearing cycles persist, though management expects improvement by back-to-school.
Dick’s/Foot Locker Merger: Viewed as a net negative for JD due to reduced competitive positioning and increased indirect competition.
Margin Pressures: Gross margin expected to stabilize, driven by cost efficiencies and reduced promotional spending.

FY26 LFL: Projected -2.1%, at the lower end of management estimates for the year.
PBT: £923m reported in FY24, FY25E at £890m.
Buybacks: £100m planned to support share reduction and offset dilution.
Investment Horizon: A marathon (multi-year recovery) for sustained upside post-H2.

Upside: Potential for strong execution, capital returns, and re-rating.
Downside: Earnings risk if terminal growth multiples drop; consumer spending pullback in volatile regions.

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