2021-10-24-瑞士信贷集团-在竞争激烈的比赛中选择长期的赢家_45页_1008kb

China PD-(L)1 Market Analysis Summary

1. Market Growth and Competition

   • China's PD-(L)1 market is expected to grow to RMB40-45 billion by 2030, driven by increasing competition, approval of new indications, and demand from the large cancer patient population.
   • As of 2021, 10 domestic and international players compete, with domestic firms (BeiGene, Hengrui, Innovent, Junshi) gaining significant market share.
   • MNCs (e.g., Merck, Bristol-Myers) face declining market share due to price cuts and competition from domestic drugs.

2. Pricing and NRDL Negotiations

   • Average price cuts of 30% (e.g., BeiGene, Hengrui, Junshi) or 50% (e.g., MNCs) are anticipated post-NRDL negotiation.
   • Innovent's PD-(L)1 may see a 50% price cut, potentially dropping below RMB50k/year.
   • Long-term pricing is expected to stay above RMB30k per year, supporting ~1.3 million patients at peak.

3. Key Players and Sales Projections

   • Hengrui leads with strong sales and a large sales force (~6,000 in oncology).
   • BeiGene is a top pick due to its global partnerships (e.g., with Novartis) and diverse pipeline (e.g., BTK inhibitor, combo therapies).
   • Innovent and Junshi show strong growth but face intense competition; Junshi's PD-1 sales have declined due to regulatory and pricing pressures.

4. Efficacy and Safety Comparisons

   • No clear winner across indications; PD-(L)1 drugs perform similarly in terms of efficacy and safety.
   • Data from trials (e.g., NPC, NSCLC, HCC) show variability but no statistically superior drug in most settings.

5. Global Development and Sales

   • BeiGene leads in overseas sales (~US$4.8 billion peak), supported by strong partnerships and global Phase 3 trials.
   • Innovent and Junshi have significant royalty income (11-17%) from partners like Lilly and Coherus.

6. Clinical Development Trends

   • Combo therapies (e.g., PD-1+chemo, PD-(L)1+targeted agents) and early-stage cancer treatments (neoadjuvant/adjuvant) are key growth areas.
   • Bispecific antibodies (e.g., PD-1/CTLA-4) threaten traditional PD-(L)1 dominance in specific cancers.

7. Stock and Investment Outlook

   • BeiGene is recommended as a top pick due to its leadership in global expansion and innovative pipeline.
   • Junshi's stock price was revised downward due to competitive pressures, while Hengrui and Innovent remain cautious picks.

Key Takeaways:

• China's PD-(L)1 market is in a highly competitive race, with domestic firms leading growth and global expansion.
• Pricing pressure and NRDL negotiations will shape market dynamics, with moderate price cuts expected.
• BeiGene is positioned as the frontrunner due to its global partnerships, while Hengrui dominates domestic sales.