20150122-工银国际-VIEWPOINTS_EXPRESS_17页_483kb_483kb

报告摘要

Market Report Summary - 22 January 2015

Core Content

The report provides an overview of the Chinese property, passenger vehicle, and TMT sectors, highlighting their performance and future outlook for early 2015.

China Property Monitor

Key Highlights

Sector Recovery: The December 2014 data confirmed a recovery in the property sector, with property sales rebounding sharply, while property development and investment showed signs of improvement.
Sales Performance:
- Property sales in December 2014 reached Rmb1,181bn, with residential property sales up 41.4% MoM to Rmb938bn.
- Both commodity and residential property sales showed positive YoY growth for the first time in 12 months, at 2.9% and 4.2% respectively.
Price Trends:
- The average selling price (ASP) of residential property dropped 0.2% MoM to Rmb5,804 per sqm, but it was expected to stabilize in early 2015.
- The ASP for residential property in 2014 was Rmb5,932 per sqm, up 1.4% YoY.
Development and Investment:
- Property development and investment remained weak in December, with new starts and completions showing YoY declines.
- The completion of residential property in December surged 178% MoM, driven by seasonal factors.
Land Acquisition and Pricing:
- Developers increased land acquisition in December, up 50% MoM to Rmb136.3bn, indicating a recovery in confidence.
- The average land price rose 17.5% YoY to Rmb3,002 per sqm, suggesting a shift toward high-tier cities.
Financing Trends:
- Developers relied more on domestic loans and self-raised funds in 2014 due to weak sector conditions.
- Total financing for property development in 2014 was Rmb12,199bn, down 0.1% YoY.
2015 Outlook:
- Property development financing is expected to improve in 2015 due to better liquidity and sales performance.
- More supportive policies from the central and local authorities are anticipated.
- Property sales are expected to continue growing in 1H2015, supported by loose policies.

Company Performance (2014)

Country Garden Holdings (2007.HK): Sales growth of 14.0% in 14F, with a PER of 4.7 and PBR of 0.9.
China Overseas Land & Investment (688.HK): Sales growth of 15.9% in 14F, with a PER of 8.8 and PBR of 1.6.
Sino-OCean Land Holdings (3377.HK): Sales growth of 14.5% in 14F, with a PER of 8.1 and PBR of 0.7.
Shimao Property Holdings (813.HK): Sales growth of 12.4% in 14F, with a PER of 5.5 and PBR of 1.0.
Guangzhou R&F Properties (2777.HK): Sales growth of 14.6% in 14F, with a PER of 9.3 and PBR of 1.7.
Longfor Properties (960.HK): Sales growth of 10.7% in 14F, with a PER of 12.8 and PBR of 2.9.
Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333.HK): Sales growth of 12.8% in 14F, with a PER of 12.6 and PBR of 2.6.
YueXiu Property (123.HK): Sales growth of 6.4% in 14F, with a PER of 6.4 and PBR of 0.5.
Agile Property Holdings (3383.HK): Sales growth of -21.8% in 14F, with a PER of 3.3 and PBR of 0.4.
Poly Property Group (119.HK): Sales growth of 14.7% in 14F, with a PER of 9.3 and PBR of 1.5.

China Passenger Vehicle Sector

Key Highlights

Moderate Growth: PV sales in 2014 grew 9.89% YoY, down from 15.7% in 2013, but China remained the leading market.
2015 Outlook:
- Stable growth of 8-9% YoY is expected due to strong market demand and more mature customers.
- SUV and MPV segments are expected to outperform, with SUV continuing to dominate.
Segment Analysis:
- Sedan sales dropped 17.4% in 2014, while SUV and MPV sales showed rapid growth of 36.4% and 46.8% respectively.
- SUV accounted for 21% of total PV sales in 2014, higher than expected.
JV vs Domestic Brands:
- JV brands saw strong YoY growth: German (16.9%), American (11.6%), Korean (10.6%), and French (32.2%).
- Japanese brands had a weaker performance, with only 7.9% YoY growth, attributed to conservative strategies and political tensions.
Domestic Brands:
- Domestic brands are expected to struggle in 2015 due to increased competition from JV brands.
- Local brands accounted for 38.3% of total PV sales in 2014, up from 40.4% in 2013.
Top Picks:
- GWM (2333.HK) and GAC Motor (2238.HK) are recommended due to their strong performance in SUV growth and new model pipeline.
Key Risks:
- China economic slowdown.
- Stricter auto sales restrictions in large cities.

Company Performance (2014)

Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238.HK): EPS growth of 29.3% in 14F, with a PER of 10.6 and PBR of 1.0.
Great Wall Motor (2333.HK): EPS growth of -1.2% in 14F, with a PER of 12.5 and PBR of 3.0.
Geely (175.HK): EPS growth of -33.2% in 14F, with a PER of 11.6 and PBR of 1.2.
Brilliance China Automotive (1114.HK): EPS growth of 48.9% in 14F, with a PER of 11.4 and PBR of 3.3.
Dongfeng Motor (489.HK): EPS growth of 20.0% in 14F, with a PER of 13.8 and PBR of 1.1.
Qingling Motors (1122.HK): EPS growth of 26.7% in 14F, with a PER of 11.2 and PBR of 0.7.
BAIC Motor (1958.HK): EPS growth of 4.7% in 14F, with a PER of 13.8 and PBR of 1.5.
Average and Median Performance:
- Average EPS growth: 12.2% in 14F, with a PER of 10.6 and PBR of 1.9.
- Median EPS growth: 20.0% in 14F, with a PER of 11.4 and PBR of 1.2.

TMT Sector

Key Highlights

E-commerce Growth: Over 4000 companies on Alibaba marketplaces provided services in 2014, with a 64% increase in third-party service providers and 72% growth in total merchandise sold.
Tencent's Android ROM: Tencent started beta testing its Android ROM, named Tencent OS (TOS).
Renren's Fintech Investment: Renren invested US$40 million in Motif Investing, a U.S. online broker.
WeChat Ads: WeChat is testing ads in its timeline feature, similar to Facebook.
LeTV's Custom OS: LeTV unveiled a custom operating system for EVs, part of its SEE project.

Stock Market Performance

HK Equities:
- Hang Seng Index: Price of 24,353, +1.7%.
- H-share Index: Price of 12,021, +2.4%.
- Turnover: HK$104.3bn, +17.9%.
China Equities:
- CSI 300 Index: Price of 3,549, +4.5%.
- Sh Composite Index: Price of 11,372, +3.4%.
- Sz Composite Index: Price of 1,512, +2.4%.
Asian Equities:
- Nikkei 225: Price of 17,280, -0.5%.
- Korea KOSPI: Price of 1,921, +0.2%.
- Taiwan TWSE: Price of 9,320, +0.7%.
- India Sensex 30: Price of 28,889, +0.4%.
US/European Equities:
- DJIA: Price of 17,554, +0.2%.
- S&P 500: Price of 2,032, +0.5%.
- NASDAQ: Price of 4,667, +0.3%.
- UK FTSE 100: Price of 6,728, +1.6%.
- Germany DAX: Price of 10,299, +0.4%.
- France CAC40: Price of 4,485, +0.9%.