2025-06-12-花旗集团-美国房地产投资信托基金和住宿业_修正_截至6月7日当周的每间可售房收入（RevPAR）与2024年相比下降3.2_14页_274kb

Citigroup Lodging Markets Analysis Summary

Key Financial Metrics & Latest Data

• Revised RevPAR for Week Ending June 7: Citigroup revised its initial RevPAR calculation downward to -3.2% year-over-year, compared to the original calculation (+1.7%). The total industry RevPAR was $108.23, down from $108.25.
• ADR: $161.57, down $163.55 year-over-year (-0.02% or -$0.02).
• Occupancy: 67.0%, down from 67.1% year-over-year (-3.2pp).
• Urban Performance: Year-over-year performance was (-2.1%) but sequentially up +28.5% compared to the previous week. RevPAR growth (+17.1%) outpaced urban (+2.1% y/y).

Quarterly Trend & 2Q25 Outlook

• QTD 2Q25 RevPAR: Tracking down -0.2% year-over-year.
• Luxury & Upper Upscale Focus: Citigroup expects these segments to continue outperforming despite overall RevPAR moderation. Estimated 2Q25 Luxury RevPAR +4.3% and Upper Upscale +0.1%.
• 2Q25 Forecast: Citigroup projects total RevPAR for 2025 at +1.0% (down 80bps from previous forecast), reflecting broader economic concerns. First Quarter 2025 RevPAR was +2.2%.

Chain Scale Performance

• Contrasting Outcomes: Luxury (-0.8%) and Upper Upscale (-3.1%) segments performed relatively well. Upscale (-4.0%), Upper Midscale (-4.2%), Midscale (-4.0%), and Economy (-5.1%) segments underperformed. Independents (-3.2%) matched overall performance.
• Segment Exposure: Citigroup notes its hotel REIT coverage disproportionately includes market-leading upscale properties, particularly in the top 25 markets.

Group Demand & Top Markets

• June Group Stay Performance: June Group RevPAR is down -5.3% year-over-year, with group segments concentrated in hotels with >1,000 rooms (-4.3%).
• Top 25 Markets: These markets underperformed overall (-3.4% vs -2.9%), but San Francisco (+12.4%), Chicago (+3.4%), and New York (+2.9%) led year-over-year performance. Boston (-6.7%) and Washington DC (-11.9%) underperformed significantly.

Midweek Trends

• Midweek occupancy improvements are anticipated for urban and upper-scale properties, considered a proxy for business travel. However, travel trends are stagnant, reflecting macroeconomic concerns.

RevPAR Drivers

• The RevPAR decline in the latest reporting period was driven by a mix of lower occupancy and ADR, both contributing -3.2 percentage points. Upward-looking market analysis suggests RevPAR improvement depends on favorable supply/demand balance and pricing power.

2Q25 Performance Context

• QTD 2Q25 RevPAR is tracking slightly lower (-0.2%) than 2024. Largely consistent with Q1 trends (+2.2%) and below Citigroup's initial 2025 forecast (+1.0%).

Outlook & Risks

• Citigroup anticipates continued RevPAR growth but at a slower pace, influenced by economic headwinds. Analysts suggest overall sentiment indicators (like consumer confidence and labor market data) are moderating, impacting travel demand.

This summary provides an overview of key financial metrics, trends in the lodging market, and Citigroup's cautious outlook for the remainder of the year based on the provided analysis.