UNDP-阿富汗2021-2022年社会经济展望：避免基本需求危机（英）-2021.11-40页_1020kb

Afghanistan: Socio-Economic Outlook 2021-2022

Core Content

This report, prepared by the UNDP Afghanistan Country Office, provides an analysis of the socio-economic situation in Afghanistan following the Taliban takeover on 15 August 2021. It outlines the immediate and long-term impacts of the political change, the suspension of international aid, and the freezing of Afghan reserves on the economy and social sectors.

Main Points

• Economic and Development Challenges: Afghanistan ended 2020 with significant economic and development challenges, requiring international aid of $6–8 billion annually between 2020 and 2024 to support basic services, economic growth, and peace settlements.

• Political Uncertainty and Aid Suspension: The de facto Taliban authorities have not been internationally recognized, leading to a sudden stop in aid and the freezing of foreign reserves. This has worsened an already declining economy and created a severe humanitarian crisis.

• Economic Impact: The report estimates that the economy could contract by around 20% of GDP within a year and potentially by 30% in the following years. This is due to reduced aid, a drop in imports, inflation, and a weakened banking sector.

• Social Impact: The social conditions have deteriorated significantly. Poverty is expected to become nearly universal, with over 90% of the population affected by mid-2022. The poverty gap may more than double, requiring $2 billion to lift incomes to the poverty line. Female employment restrictions could lead to a loss of $600 million to $1 billion in economic output and reduce household consumption by nearly $500 million annually.

• Humanitarian Crisis: The number of people in need of food assistance is projected to reach nearly 23 million by 2022, more than half of the population. The country is also facing a severe drought, increased food insecurity, and a rise in malnutrition and disease outbreaks.

• SDGs and Human Rights: The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are at risk of further derailment, particularly in areas such as poverty eradication, hunger, clean water and sanitation, education, and gender equality. Restrictions on women's rights, including their exclusion from public life and employment, have negatively impacted both social and economic progress.

• UNDP Recommendations: UNDP proposes several social protection measures, including cash transfers, cash-for-markets, and cash-for-work programs, which could provide significant relief. These programs are estimated to cost $300 million, $90 million, and $100 million annually, respectively.

• International Response: Despite the political uncertainty, the international community has pledged continued humanitarian aid, with the UN pledging $1.3 billion and other bilateral donors also providing or planning to provide assistance.

Key Policy Proposals

• Social Protection Measures:

  • Cash Transfers: Targeting families with children, elderly, and people with disabilities, costing $300 million annually.
  • Cash-for-Markets: Supporting small businesses, costing $90 million annually.
  • Cash-for-Work: Focused on infrastructure maintenance and community projects, costing $100 million annually.

• Humanitarian Relief Coordination: The UN and its partners should coordinate swiftly and effectively, using the One-UN concept and ensuring that aid is directly channeled to Afghan citizens.

• Support for Women and Children: Special attention should be given to women and children, including programs for pregnant and lactating women and children under five.

• Energy Security: Ensuring that electricity imports are not cut off is critical to prevent energy poverty, with an estimated 10 million people at risk of losing access to electricity.

• Health and Education: Maintaining health services, including pandemic response, polio eradication, and maternal and child health, is essential. Education, particularly for girls, should be prioritized to prevent long-term human capital loss.

Key Information

• Poverty Rate: Increased to over 70% after the pandemic, compared to 47% before.
• Food Insecurity: Estimated to affect 23 million people by 2022, with 14 million children likely to face crisis or emergency levels of food insecurity.
• Unemployment: Expected to double in the coming years.
• Female Employment Restrictions: May lead to an economic loss of $600 million to $1 billion and significantly impact household incomes.
• SDGs Impact: The progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, especially SDG 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, and 10, is at risk due to the humanitarian and development crisis.

Conclusion

The report highlights the urgent need for international support and coordination to avert a humanitarian and development catastrophe. It emphasizes the importance of addressing the socio-economic challenges through targeted social protection programs and maintaining essential services such as health, education, and energy. The UNDP is reorienting its efforts to support these initiatives and ensure that aid reaches the most vulnerable populations.