布鲁盖尔-Climate-policy-in-China,-the-European-Union-and-the-United-States_-Main-drivers-and-prospects-for-the-future_36页_316kb

Climate Policy in China, the EU and the US: Main Drivers and Prospects for the Future

Core Content

This policy brief provides an analysis of climate policy development and implementation in three major jurisdictions: China, the European Union (EU), and the United States (US). It aims to help policymakers and analysts understand the domestic factors influencing climate action and identify areas of common interest to enhance cooperation and policy effectiveness.

The study highlights the importance of economic factors, institutional structures, political systems, public opinion, and interest groups in shaping climate policies. It also explores the challenges and opportunities in achieving the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, and the potential for increasing ambition in the future.

Main Findings by Jurisdiction

China

1. Likelihood of Achieving Targets

   • China is likely to meet its NDC targets for peaking carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and reducing carbon intensity by 60-65% by 2030 compared to 2005.

2. Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV)

   • Improved MRV and enforcement mechanisms are critical to ensure compliance, especially in regions and industries that may resist due to economic losses. Independent MRV at the local level is essential.

3. Energy Market Reform

   • Supporting renewable energy through feed-in tariffs and green finance can drive innovation, job creation, and energy security. However, the current flat energy market may hinder the integration of renewables, as local governments and operators favor coal.

4. Transition Strategies for High-Carbon Industries

   • Phasing out coal, coal-fired power, and steelmaking is a major challenge. The state has committed significant funding to support workers in these sectors during the transition.

5. Non-CO₂ Emissions

   • China's overall GHG emissions are expected to grow until 2030 due to increasing fertilizer use, power sector expansion, and coal mining. Additional policies are needed to address non-CO₂ emissions, especially in chemical, electrical, coal mining, and agricultural sectors.

European Union (EU)

1. Likelihood of Achieving Targets

   • The EU is likely to miss its 2030 emissions targets, with current policies projected to result in a 5-10% over-shoot. It needs to double its annual emissions reduction rate from 2015 onward.

2. Stable Climate Policies and Commission Leadership

   • The EU has committed to ongoing emissions reductions and has a strong institutional framework with the European Commission leading climate policy. Despite political challenges, the Commission has shown resilience in driving the agenda.

3. Reform Despite Resistance

   • The EU faces resistance from Member States with fossil fuel resources or pollution-intensive industries. The Market Stability Reserve is insufficient to address permit oversupply, and further reforms are needed.

4. Energy Union as a Give-and-Take

   • The Energy Union requires compromises between Member States. For example, Germany may support energy infrastructure modernization in Eastern Europe in exchange for continued decarbonization efforts.

5. Low-Carbon Innovation

   • EU R&D spending on low-carbon innovation has declined since 2009. The EU aims to increase innovation spending to 3% of GDP by 2020 and has launched initiatives like Mission Innovation to promote global clean energy research.

United States (US)

1. Likelihood of Achieving Targets

   • The US will need to increase its ambition for emissions reductions, especially in the power, industry, and transport sectors, to meet its 2025 NDC target of a 26-28% reduction from 2005 levels.

2. Executive Branch Action

   • The US executive branch has the power to drive climate policy independently of Congress. President Obama’s Climate Action Plan and Clean Power Plan were significant steps in this direction.

3. Subnational Action as a Driver

   • States and local governments play a key role in climate policy leadership. 19 states are expected to contribute 36% of the emissions reductions from the Clean Power Plan (2022–2029) and 30% by 2030.

4. Risk of Roll-Back Post-Election

   • President Trump’s policies, including withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and repealing the Clean Power Plan, pose a significant risk to climate progress. However, changing regulations requires a lengthy legal and political process, making a quick reversal unlikely.

5. Energy-Intensive Industries

   • These industries have a strong influence on US climate policy due to their economic significance. Their impact varies by state, leading to differences in climate policy leadership and resistance.

Key Insights

• China is driven by the co-benefits of reducing air pollution and promoting green industry growth. Institutional reforms and stronger enforcement mechanisms are needed to ensure compliance with national targets.
• The EU has a strong institutional framework, but faces challenges in achieving its 2030 targets due to resistance from some Member States. The European Commission remains a key player in driving climate policy.
• The US has a highly decentralized system where states play a major role. However, the political system allows for significant variability in policy ambition and implementation, particularly under different presidential administrations.

Conclusion

The study underscores the need for understanding the unique national contexts that shape climate policy. It also highlights the importance of cooperation and mutual understanding among the three jurisdictions to address global climate challenges effectively. The success of future climate policies will depend on overcoming economic, political, and institutional barriers, and on the ability to align national and subnational efforts.