2025-06-04-Jefferies-意法半导体（STMPA）_第二季度和第三季度好于预期的趋势_7页_109kb

STMicroelectronics Equity Research Summary (June 4, 2025)

Rating: BUY, with a 12-month price target of €30.00 (+34% from current €22.43).

Recent Performance:

• Q2 revenues likely exceed expectations, at least at the midpoint of guidance (7.7% QoQ growth).
• Outperformance driven by personal electronics (particularly Apple-related) and industrial MCUs in China.
• Auto revenues trending in line with expectations.

Q3 Outlook:

• Potential year-over-year revenue growth of around 20% QoQ, likely exceeding consensus and forecasts.
• Reflects cyclical recovery in key markets.

Valuation and Growth:

• Current market cap: €21.2B.
• FY26 EPS estimate is 34% ahead of consensus.
• Valuation based on P/E and EV/sales, with upside risks including strong demand for Apple products and economic recovery in US-China.

Risks:

• Downside risks include further tariffs, global recession, or forced ecosystem changes.
• Cyclical risks: auto/industrial chip downcycle may be steeper than expected due to weak China auto market and tariffs.
• No ASP limits on Chinese subsidies could provide growth opportunities.

Long-Term Drivers: Early stage of cyclical recovery, with potential for earnings re-rating and estimate upgrades.