2011年-世界发展银行全球_Lagos_State_Nigeria___PIM_Investment_in_Infrastucture_for_a_Modern_Megacity_37页_8mb

Summary of Lagos State, Nigeria: PIM Investment in Infrastructure for a Modern Megacity

Core Content

Lagos State, Nigeria, is a rapidly growing megacity with a population that has surged from 5.8 million in 1985 to an estimated 24.6 million by 2015. As one of the fastest-growing cities in the world, Lagos has become a focal point for public investment management (PIM) reforms aimed at transforming its economic and infrastructural landscape. These reforms are part of the broader Public Investment Management Series by the World Bank, which evaluates PIM systems globally.

The Lagos State Government, under the Governor's Ten-Point Agenda (TPA), has made significant strides in improving infrastructure and the business environment. The TPA outlines a strategic framework for public investment, focusing on areas such as roads, transportation, power and water supply, environment, shelter, health, education, food security, and employment. These areas reflect a comprehensive approach to development, emphasizing both new investments and the rehabilitation of existing infrastructure.

Main Goals of PIM in Lagos

The primary goal of PIM in Lagos is to transform resources into assets for sustained economic growth. This is achieved through:

• Strategic planning and execution of public expenditures.
• Strengthening institutional capacity to manage public investment effectively.
• Passage of key legislative reforms, including the Lagos State Procurement Bill 2009, Lagos State Tenancy Bill 2009, Lagos State Public Finance Management Bill 2010, and the Criminal Law of Lagos State Bill 2010, which aim to improve transparency, accountability, and governance in public finance.

Key Reforms and Progress

Lagos has implemented several fiscal and administrative reforms to enhance public investment management:

• Internal Generated Revenue (IGR) has grown significantly, from about N600 million per month in 2000 to N15 billion per month in 2010, representing over 50% of total revenue in both years.
• Capital expenditure increased from N15.96 billion in 2005 to N173.11 billion in 2010, while recurrent expenditure rose from N67.69 billion to N156.15 billion.
• The capital budget share of total expenditure increased from 54% in 2009 to 58% in 2010, with a projected increase to 60% in the future.
• The fiscal deficit rose from 0.7% of GDP in 2009 to 2.0% in 2013, but remains manageable due to IDA credit and domestic borrowing.
• Debt-to-GSDP and debt-service-to-revenue ratios are monitored closely, with the goal of maintaining fiscal sustainability.

Challenges and Limitations

Despite progress, Lagos faces several challenges in managing public investment effectively:

• The huge size of the economy and rapid population growth have outpaced the development of institutional capacity.
• Infrastructure demand exceeds available government resources, necessitating deficit financing from internal and external sources.
• Debt levels have risen significantly, with total debt reaching N98.83 billion in 2009, or 2.4% of GSDP, compared to N13.2 billion in 2005.
• Contingent liabilities such as public-private partnerships (PPPs) and special purpose vehicles (SPVs) have increased, creating potential risks to fiscal sustainability.
• Unfunded pension benefits are expected to reach N14 billion by 2015, adding to the financial burden.

Future Outlook

To address these challenges, the Lagos State Government has adopted several strategies for the future:

• Moving large projects to off-budget entities (OBEs) through special purpose vehicles (SPVs) and public-private partnerships (PPPs).
• Broadening the tax base and deepening revenue reforms to ensure sustainable fiscal performance.
• Implementing a Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) to guide public investment planning and execution.
• Maintaining strict fiscal discipline and debt responsibility, as outlined in the Lagos State Public Finance Management (PFM) programs and the Public Financial Management Act.

Conclusion

Lagos State has made encouraging progress in PIM, particularly in infrastructure development and revenue mobilization. However, the challenge of fiscal sustainability remains due to the high debt-to-revenue ratio and increasing population and economic demand. The State's fiscal adjustment program aims to stabilize debt ratios, improve expenditure management, and enhance revenue collection. The successful implementation of the TPA and the legislative reforms indicate a commitment to modernizing public investment practices, but continued vigilance and institutional strengthening are necessary to ensure long-term success.