2008年-世界发展银行全球_Investigation_and_Analysis_of_Natural_Hazard_Impacts_on_Linear_Infrastructure_in_Southern_Kyrgyzstan___Desk_and_Field_Studies_Report_63页_1mb

Summary of Investigation and Analysis of Natural Hazard Impacts on Linear Infrastructure in Southern Kyrgyzstan

Core Content

This report, prepared for the World Bank, investigates the impact of natural geological hazards (geohazards) on major road infrastructure in southern Kyrgyzstan. The study focuses on identifying geohazards, assessing their effects, and recommending strategies for better design, monitoring, and mitigation to ensure the long-term integrity of the road network.

Main Objectives and Scope

The primary objectives of the study were to:

1. Review the country's capacity for disaster management and recommend improvements.
2. Develop strategies to integrate disaster-related information into transport and infrastructure projects.
3. Identify more economically efficient approaches to dealing with geohazards.
4. Contribute to the country's efforts in addressing the effects of climate change on natural disasters.

The scope of work included desk studies, field visits, and data collection on geohazards and road infrastructure. The study covered approximately 850 km of major roads in southern Kyrgyzstan and involved consultations with government agencies and local authorities.

Key Geohazards in Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyzstan is a high-risk country for natural disasters due to its mountainous terrain and climate. The most significant geohazards affecting road infrastructure include:

• Landslides: Frequent and damaging, especially in the Southern Tien Shan and foothills of mountain ranges. They are often caused by tectonic, geological, geomorphological, and hydrometeorological factors.
• Mudflows: Common in areas with loess and other metastable soils.
• River erosion: Particularly threatening to roads near riverbanks and in flood-prone regions.
• Seismic activity: Kyrgyzstan is one of the most seismically active regions in Central Asia, with over 3000 earthquakes recorded annually. Major earthquakes, such as the 1911 Kemin earthquake (Ms = 8.2) and the 2008 Suusamyr earthquake (Ms = 7.3), have had devastating impacts.

Road Design and Construction in Kyrgyzstan

The current road design and construction practices in Kyrgyzstan are based on national codes and standards, but they are not considered adequate for mitigating geohazard risks. The National Environmental Health Action Plan (NEHAP, 1997) outlines the need for effective disaster management and mitigation measures, but implementation is lacking due to limited resources and funding. The Ministry of Transport and Communications (MOTC) highlights that the road network is highly vulnerable to natural causes, and that the cost of repair is often higher than that caused by traffic.

Economic Impact

The Ministry of Emergency Situations (MES) estimates that the annual economic impact of natural disaster-related events in Kyrgyzstan could be as high as US $35 million. The cost of repairing damage from geohazards, especially river erosion, is recurrent and unpredictable, making long-term planning and forecasting challenging.

Geohazard Design, Monitoring, and Mitigation

The report recommends the following strategies to address geohazard impacts:

• GIS-Based Geohazards Register: Integrate existing "construction hotspots" with a natural hazards GIS database for better planning and management.
• Adoption of Appropriate Design Methods: Use proven techniques from similar projects in other countries, such as those outlined in the TRL UK Overseas Road Note 16, SEACAP SE Asia Programme, and UK DFID Himalayan Landslide Risk Assessment Studies.
• Establishment of a Geohazards Group: To coordinate and implement the above strategies, with regular workshops during the rehabilitation period.
• Engagement of External Consultants: For independent assessment and cost estimation of major geohazard locations along roads planned for rehabilitation (2009–2012).

Key Findings and Recommendations

• The "core network" of major roads is threatened by landslides, mudflows, and river erosion, with the latter being particularly damaging.
• The current approach to geohazard management is reactive, with limited resources for proactive design, monitoring, and mitigation.
• There is a good understanding of geohazards within relevant state organisations, but this knowledge is not effectively translated into long-term infrastructure planning.
• The report recommends improving road design and maintenance standards, enhancing knowledge transfer through manuals and training, and developing tailored financial tools to assess and manage geohazard risks.

Conclusion

The study concludes that while Kyrgyzstan has the expertise and data to address geohazard risks, the lack of resources and funding hampers the implementation of effective design, monitoring, and mitigation measures. A proactive and integrated approach, including the use of GIS and improved design standards, is necessary to ensure the long-term sustainability and safety of the road network.