联合国-中国和印度的强劲需求推动全球茶叶的消费和生产（英文0-2018.5-16页

Summary of the IGG/Tea 23rd Session: Current Market Situation and Medium Term Outlook

I. Introduction

• Document Overview: CCP:TE 18/CRS1 provides an analysis of the current market situation and medium-term outlook for tea up to 2027.
• Data Sources: The Secretariat used data from member countries, FAOSTAT, and the International Tea Committee (ITC), supplemented by macroeconomic data from IMF, World Bank, and OECD.
• Country Presentations: Member countries such as Argentina, China, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam shared insights on their tea subsectors.
• Recommendations: The spirit of cooperation among members is encouraged to promote marketing priorities in:
  • Improving market transparency
  • Fostering market expansion
  • Enhancing value chains

II. Production

• Global Tea Production: Increased by 4.4% annually over the last decade, reaching 5.73 million tonnes in 2016.
• China's Role: China's production more than doubled from 1.17 million tonnes in 2007 to 2.44 million tonnes in 2016, driven by domestic demand and economic growth.
• India: Production increased to a record high of 1.27 million tonnes in 2016 due to favorable weather.
• Kenya and Sri Lanka: Kenya's production increased by 18.0%, while Sri Lanka's declined by 11.0%.
• Black Tea: Annual growth of 3.0% over the last decade.
• Green Tea: Annual growth of 5.4%, with China leading the increase in output and productivity.

III. Exports

• Global Tea Exports: Increased by 1.4% annually to reach 1.75 million tonnes in 2016.
• Kenya: Recorded a record export level of 436,924 tonnes in 2016.
• India: Achieved the highest tea exports in 2017 after 36 years, reaching record levels from 1981.
• Green Tea Exports: Projected to grow by 5.0% annually to reach 605,455 tonnes by 2027.
• China's Dominance: Expected to continue as the largest green tea exporter, with Vietnam and Indonesia following.
• Black Tea Exports: Projected to reach 1.66 million tonnes in 2027, with Kenya maintaining its leadership.

IV. Prices

• FAO Tea Composite Price: Remained firm over the last decade, reaching a record high of 3.15 USD per kg in 2017.
• Price Trends: Annual average increased from 2.39 USD per kg in 2008 to 3.15 USD per kg in 2017.
• Market Factors: Prices are influenced by market access, pests and diseases, weather conditions, and dynamics among retailers, wholesalers, and multinationals.
• Future Projections: Prices are expected to decline in nominal terms by 1.4% and in real terms by 3.6% over the next decade.
• Price Sensitivity: A 5% increase in production could lead to a 40% price drop, while a 5% increase in consumption could raise prices by 8%.

V. Consumption

• Global Tea Consumption: Increased by 4.5% annually to reach 5.5 million tonnes in 2016.
• China: Consumed 2.1 million tonnes in 2016, accounting for 38.6% of global consumption.
• India: Consumed 1.05 million tonnes, or 19.0% of the global total.
• Europe: Traditional markets like Germany and the Russian Federation saw declines in consumption.
• Health Awareness: A key driver of tea consumption, especially in emerging markets, as people shift away from carbonated drinks.
• Market Segments: Ready-to-Drink and loose leaf (specialty) teas are growing, while instant, bagged, and pod teas show stagnant growth.

VI. Projections

• Production:
  • Black tea is projected to grow at 2.2% annually to 4.42 million tonnes by 2027.
  • Green tea is expected to grow at 7.5% annually to 3.65 million tonnes.
• Consumption:
  • Black tea consumption is projected to grow at 2.5% annually to 4.17 million tonnes by 2027.
  • Green tea consumption is expected to grow at 3.4% annually, with China leading in both production and consumption.
• Export Trends:
  • Asia's exports are projected to reach 840,623 tonnes by 2027, while Africa's will reach 711,816 tonnes.
  • Green tea exports are expected to grow significantly in Japan and Vietnam.

VII. Concluding Remarks

• Sustainability and Strategy: The IGG/Tea emphasizes the need for careful management of price fluctuations and the importance of expanding demand.
• Market Promotion: Encouragement to promote tea's health benefits and cultural value to sustain and grow consumption.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Harmonize market requirements (MRLs and quality standards).
  • Reduce compliance costs.
  • Develop policies that mainstream climate change into tea development strategies.
• Future Outlook: The tea industry faces challenges due to climate change and the need for more sustainable and adaptive practices.