20150804-Maybank_KERPL-Data_services_to_power_growth_11页_536kb

报告摘要

Data Services Growth: Data services are driving growth, with a 14% YoY increase in 1QFY16 revenue.
Voice Services Decline: Voice services declined by 12.2% YoY, indicating a shift in the business model.
Capex Guidance: Management increased capex guidance to USD300-350m for FY16F and USD325m for FY17F.
Neotel-Vodacom Deal: The deal has reached the last stage, with a Competition Tribunal hearing scheduled for November 2015.
SOTP Valuation: Maintained a BUY recommendation with a lower SOTP-based target price of INR542, factoring in higher capex and land value.

Metric	FY13A	FY14A	FY15A	FY16E	FY17E
Revenue (INR m)	172,129.5	196,195.5	199,090.2	206,078.3	219,934.9
EBITDA (INR m)	(1,986.2)	30,416.1	29,897.4	32,160.2	37,981.8
Core Net Profit (INR m)	(6,233.1)	345.8	1,065.2	431.5	2,542.1
Core EPS (INR)	(22)	1	4	2	9
Core EPS Growth (%)	nm	nm	208.0	(59.5)	489.2
Net DPS (INR)	3	5	6	6	6
Core P/E (x)	(20.7)	372.8	121.0	298.8	50.7
P/BV (x)	9.0	16.1	40.1	72.0	52.0
Net Dividend Yield (%)	0.7	1.0	1.2	1.2	1.2
ROAE (%)	(33.6)	3.1	19.0	17.2	119.1
ROAA (%)	(2.7)	0.1	0.4	0.2	1.1
EV/EBITDA (x)	nm	6.5	7.9	7.2	5.8
Net Debt/Equity (%)	nm	nm	nm	nm	nm

Location	Land Area (Acres)	Land Area (msq.ft)	Market Value (Rs/sqft)	Market Value (INRb)
Delhi-Greater Kailash	70	3.05	24,500	75
Delhi-Chattapur	58	2.53	3,500	9
Pune-Dighi	524	22.83	482	11
Kolkata-Halisahar	35	1.53	482	1
Chennai-Pandinallur	53	2.33	361	1
TOTAL	741	32.3	-	96
Stamp Duty + Capital Gains Tax	-	-	-	24
Liquidity Discount	-	-	-	30%
Net Value Recovered	-	-	-	50
No. of Shares (m)	-	-	-	285
Value/Share (INR)	-	-	-	177

Data Services: Expected to grow by 16.5% over FY15-17F, driven by managed services and transformational services.
Managed Services: Revenue is expected to grow by strong double digits, with 20+ % growth in managed services.
Transformational Services: Revenue grew at a 49% CAGR over FY12-15, indicating strong potential.
Addressable Market: Expected to increase from USD5.5b in 2014 to USD7.5b in 2017.

Yr to Mar (INRb)	FY13	FY14*	FY15	CAGR (FY13-15)	FY16F	FY17F	CAGR (FY15-17F)
GDMS	67.5	81.5	89.9	15.4	105.2	122.0	16.5
GVS	85.6	93.0	87.8	1.2	77.7	72.9	-8.8
New Businesses#	18.9	21.7	21.4	6.3	23.1	25.0	8.0
Total	172.1	196.2	199.1	7.5	206.1	219.9	5.1

Metric	Positive	Neutral	Negative
Target Price (INR)	542	528	2.7
'16 PATMI (INRm)	431	1,175	(63.3)
'17 PATMI (INRm)	2,542	4,021	(36.8)

Neotel-Vodacom Deal: Final stages of completion, with a Competition Tribunal hearing scheduled for November 2015.
TCOM's Focus: Increasing share of value-added services (managed and transformational) and reducing reliance on traditional services.
New Businesses: Expected to grow significantly, with 11% of revenue in FY15 and 11.4% in FY17F.

Buy Recommendation: Maintained due to TCOM's position in the fast-growing global data-service market.
Valuation: Based on 5x EV/EBITDA for core business and land value at INR177/share.

EBITDA Margin: Increased from 15.5% in FY14A to 17.3% in FY17E.
ROAE: Expected to rise to 119.1% in FY17E, indicating improved profitability.
Liquidity: Current ratio remains stable at 0.7 across FY16E and FY17E.
FCF Yield: Increased from 8.9% in FY15A to 9.4% in FY17E.
Net Debt: Increased to USD350m for FY16F and USD325m for FY17F.

Data Services: Dominating growth, with strong double-digit revenue growth expected.
Voice Services: Declining due to irrational pricing, expected to continue with revenue drops.
Capex: Increased to USD300-350m, impacting net debt.
Land Value: Estimated at INR177/share, contributing to the SOTP valuation.
Valuation: Maintained at INR542 due to growth in data services and land value.
Investment Recommendation: BUY, with strong potential in the data services segment.