CNAS-竞争新武器库：美中关系中的强制性经济措施（英文）-2020.4-65页_1mb

Summary of "A New Arsenal for Competition: Coercive Economic Measures in the U.S.-China Relationship"

Core Content

This report examines the evolving use of coercive economic measures by both the United States and China in their strategic competition. It highlights how these measures have transitioned from being occasional tools to becoming mainstream instruments of foreign and national security policy. The report is authored by Elizabeth Rosenberg, Peter E. Harrell, and Ashley Feng, all affiliated with the Center for a New American Security (CNAS).

Main Points

• Coercive economic measures are defined as restrictions on trade, investment, and financial flows intended to impose economic costs or influence foreign policy decisions.
• Both the U.S. and China use these measures to advance strategic objectives, and their use has increased significantly in recent years.
• The U.S. has employed a diverse range of tools, including tariffs, export controls, investment restrictions, financial sanctions, import limitations, and law enforcement actions, targeting Chinese entities and activities.
• China has also expanded its use of economic coercion, often targeting U.S. allies and using both formal and informal measures, such as tariffs, social credit systems, and unreliable entity lists.
• The U.S. strategy for economic coercion against China is still evolving, and there is a lack of coherence and clear signaling in the use of these measures.
• The U.S. needs to better integrate its coercive economic tools, assess impacts and costs, and coordinate with allies to enhance effectiveness.

Key Trends

U.S. Coercive Economic Measures Against China

• Tariffs: The U.S. has imposed tariffs on approximately two-thirds of its imports from China, despite the Phase One trade deal signed in 2020. These tariffs have had mixed results, with some economic pressure on China but no fundamental concessions from Beijing.
• Export Controls: The U.S. has expanded export controls, particularly on high-tech products and services, to limit China's technological advancement and secure U.S. supply chains.
• Investment Restrictions: The U.S. has increased scrutiny of Chinese investments, aiming to protect national security and limit economic influence.
• Financial Sanctions: Targeted sanctions against Chinese entities and individuals have been used to pressure China on issues such as intellectual property theft and foreign policy disagreements.
• Import Restrictions: The U.S. has imposed restrictions on Chinese-linked products to secure its supply chains and reduce dependency on China.
• Law Enforcement Tools: The U.S. has increased law enforcement actions against Chinese IP theft and other economic activities, using domestic legal frameworks to target specific Chinese actions.

China's Use of Coercive Economic Measures Against the U.S.

• China has shifted from primarily using economic coercion for economic goals to using it for national security objectives.
• China has targeted U.S. allies, such as Canada and Australia, in response to foreign policy actions, including Huawei-related issues.
• China has developed both formal and informal tools, such as tariffs, social credit systems, and unreliable entity lists, to pressure the U.S. and its allies.
• China's informal measures (e.g., customs slowdowns, fabricated quality concerns) have been more common in targeting non-U.S. countries.

Policy Recommendations

• The U.S. should invest in maintaining its competitive edge in economic and technological sectors.
• The U.S. needs to improve the coherence and integration of its coercive economic measures.
• Clarity and signaling of U.S. objectives and escalation paths should be enhanced.
• Modeling and scenario analysis should be developed to better understand the impact and limitations of these tools.
• The U.S. should strengthen cooperation with allies and the private sector to increase the effectiveness of its economic coercion against China.

Conclusion

The report concludes that the U.S. must adapt its strategy to better frame and implement coercive economic measures against China. It emphasizes the importance of a coherent and strategic approach, clarity in objectives, and collaboration with allies and the private sector to enhance the effectiveness of economic coercion in U.S.-China relations.

Key Statistics

• 7% of U.S. exports go to China.
• $121 billion is the value of U.S. goods exports to China.
• $57 billion is the value of U.S. services exports to China.
• $540 billion is the value of Chinese goods exports to the U.S..
• $336 billion is the value of goods covered by Trump administration tariffs.
• $1.2 trillion is the total market capitalization of Chinese companies listed on U.S. securities exchanges.
• $1.6 trillion is the value of holdings in U.S. securities by Chinese entities.
• 156 Chinese companies are listed on U.S. securities exchanges.
• 59% of Chinese sovereign reserves are held in U.S. dollars.
• $500 billion is the value of U.S. company sales in China.
• $90 billion is the value of U.S. goods exports to China that face Chinese tariffs.
• $3 trillion is the value of U.S. dollar-denominated debt.
• $90 billion is the value of U.S. goods exports to China.
• $57 billion is the value of U.S. services exports to China.
• $1.2 trillion is the total market capitalization of Chinese companies listed on U.S. securities exchanges.
• $1.6 trillion is the value of holdings in U.S. securities by Chinese entities.
• 156 Chinese companies are listed on U.S. securities exchanges.
• 59% of Chinese sovereign reserves are held in U.S. dollars.
• $500 billion is the value of U.S. company sales in China.
• $90 billion is the value of U.S. goods exports to China that face Chinese tariffs.

Strategic Implications

• The U.S. must develop a more strategic and integrated approach to economic coercion.
• China's increasing use of economic coercion against the U.S. and its allies presents a challenge to U.S. economic and foreign policy.
• The lack of a clear U.S. strategy and ambiguity in objectives can lead to unintended escalation and negative consequences.
• Coercive economic measures are not a panacea, but they are important tools in shaping the U.S.-China relationship.

This report serves as a policy guide for U.S. leaders, Congress, and the private sector, offering insights and recommendations to better navigate the complex landscape of U.S.-China economic competition.