2024-03-24-世界银行-迈向1.5ºC-对选定国家劳动力需求的影响（英）_45页_2mb

Summary

This Working Paper analyzes the effects of climate policies, particularly a $80/tCO2 carbon tax combined with payroll tax reductions and investments in clean energy, on employment in ten selected developing countries. Using the MINDSET model, the analysis assesses labor demand outcomes, sectoral impacts, and distributional effects across countries with varying development levels, resource endowments, and policy ambitions. The results categorize countries into four groups: 1) Ambitious Winners (Egypt, India, Pakistan), 2) Coal Mining Winners (Indonesia, South Africa), 3) Muddling Through (Mexico, Thailand, Philippines), and 4) Challenged by Underinvestment (Brazil, Colombia, Türkiye).

Key findings indicate that:

• Ambitious clean energy investments and carbon pricing lead to positive labor demand in environmentally focused countries, supported by structural readiness and revenue recycling.
• The construction sector benefits significantly across all scenarios due to its labor-intensity.
• Gender and skill disparities persist, with male-dominated sectors and skilled labor in higher-income countries benefiting more.
• Countries with low investment and high fossil fuel dependence face job losses, though targeted policies can mitigate negative effects.

The analysis underscores the need for carbon pricing, green investments, and workforce development to maximize employment co-benefits while ensuring a just transition.