2025-05-15-Jefferies-勃肯（BIRK）_鞋垫很重要_品牌卓越_利润率高_前景提升_目标价至80美元_10页_274kb

USA Lifestyle & Growth Platforms: Equity Research on Birkenstock (BIRK)

Date: May 15, 2025
Rating: BUY
Price Target: $80 (up from $75; based on FY'26E Adj. EBITDA of $917M at ~18x EV/EBITDA)
Current Trading: $54.49

Key Highlights

• Strong Brand and Growth: BIRK demonstrates resilient demand across regions and categories. F2Q (here) revenue grew 18% YoY to €574M, driven by B2B and DTC channels. Closed-toe silhouettes contributed at twice the group average and increased their business share by 400bps. Global expansion continues, with key growth in APAC (+30% cc), Americas (+20% cc), and EMEA (+12% cc).
• Margin Expansion: F2Q EBITDA margin expanded 110bps to 34.8%, surpassing consensus estimates due to higher gross margin (57.7%, +140bps) from new manufacturing efficiencies and pricing strategies. Raised FY'25 EBITDA guidance to 31.3-31.8%.
• Valuation: Trading below peer valuation levels, with BIRK at ~13x FY'26E EBITDA and higher growth (high-teens) compared to peers like ONON. Attractive price target supported by visible growth and profitability.
• Execution and Strategy: Management focused on whitespace opportunities (e.g., orthopedics, professional shoes) and DTC shift. Plans to mitigate tariff risks through strategic price increases and vertical integration, minimizing US dollar depreciation impact.
• Risks: Economic weakness, increased competition, and execution risks in new product categories. Potential underperformance in ESG initiatives or missteps in regional expansion.
• Upside Catalysts: Further category expansion, continued DTC shift, and successful new product launches, as highlighted in analyst's investment thesis.

Financial Projections

• Revenue: FY'25E: €2,125M (growth expectations discussed); FY'26E: €2,490M.
• EBITDA: FY'25E: ~€684M; FY'26E: €824M.
• Price Targets: $80 (+47% upside), $95 (+74% upside), $47 (-14% downside) based on different scenarios.

Analyst Notes

• Jefferies reiterates a positive view, citing BIRK's strong margins and global growth potential.
• Disclosures and certifications from equity analysts confirm views based on data and projections.

For detailed financial data and disclosures, refer to the full report.