2015年-世界发展银行全球_Lesotho___Systematic_Country_Diagnostic_146页_7mb

报告摘要

Summary of Lesotho: Systematic Country Diagnostic (WORLD BANK GROUP, June 25, 2015)

Core Content

Lesotho is a small, mountainous, and largely rural country with a population of about 2 million, completely surrounded by South Africa. Despite experiencing economic growth of around 4 percent annually over the past decade, the benefits have not been widely shared, and poverty and inequality remain high. The national headcount poverty rate based on the FY2010/11 household survey was 57.1 percent, with little change since the FY2002/03 survey. The Gini coefficient increased from 0.51 to 0.53, indicating a rise in income inequality. The bottom 40 percent of the population saw a contraction in per capita consumption, while the top 20 percent experienced higher growth rates.

Main Objectives

The report aims to:

Assess development challenges
Identify priorities for achieving the twin goals of eliminating extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity
Analyze the drivers of growth and their sustainability
Evaluate the role of the government in economic development

Key Challenges and Findings

1. Poverty and Inequality

Poverty remains high and deep, with a poverty gap of about 30 percent, indicating that substantial growth is needed to lift the majority out of poverty.
Children (up to 14 years) and the elderly (60+) account for 44% of the poor.
Rural areas, female-headed households, the unemployed, and those with low education levels are disproportionately affected by poverty.
Social outcomes, including health, education, and nutrition, have not improved despite high public spending in the social sectors.

2. Growth Model and Constraints

Lesotho's growth model has shifted from being export-driven to government spending-driven.
Public spending has grown significantly, reaching 63.1% of GDP in FY2014/15, one of the highest in the world.
The government has become the largest employer in the formal economy, which has negatively impacted the private sector's competitiveness.
The relative price of non-tradables has increased compared to tradables, reducing the private sector's share of total investment.
High public spending has led to rigid budgets and a lack of flexibility in employment expansion.

3. Public Sector Management

Public spending is inefficient and ineffective, with a high incremental capital-output ratio (ICOR) of 6.3 in 2004–2010.
Weak project selection, appraisal, and monitoring processes have contributed to poor returns on public investment.
Despite spending about 14% of GDP on public investment, the growth impact has been muted.

4. Private Sector and Business Environment

Lesotho has an uncompetitive business environment, with a high number of business regulations.
The ease of doing business ranking was 128th out of 185 countries in 2014.
Business regulations are a major constraint on growth, particularly for foreign direct investment (FDI) and local SMEs.
The process of obtaining a construction permit is lengthy and inefficient, and establishing a firm can take more than a year for foreigners.

5. Natural Capital and Climate Vulnerability

Natural capital is being depleted, and there is a risk of long-term environmental degradation.
Lesotho is vulnerable to natural disasters and climate change, which could have serious implications for economic stability and development.
The country has experienced a decline in wealth per capita and a significant depletion of natural capital between 1995 and 2010.

6. Sustainability of Growth

The current growth model is unsustainable due to its reliance on government spending and SACU revenues.
A shift towards a more jobs-intensive, export-oriented, and private-sector-driven model is needed to ensure long-term economic stability and growth.

Key Priorities for Inclusive Growth

The report identifies several key areas for reform to achieve inclusive growth and poverty reduction:

Improving the business environment to attract more investment and foster private-sector development.
Enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of public spending to better support development objectives.
Strengthening the targeting and efficiency of social safety nets to ensure that the poorest are adequately supported.
Promoting regional integration to enhance trade and investment opportunities.
Enhancing the competitiveness of the private sector through regulatory reforms and improved access to finance.
Investing in human capital through better education and health outcomes.
Addressing inequality through targeted policies and inclusive growth strategies.

Conclusion

To meet the twin goals of poverty reduction and shared prosperity, Lesotho must redefine the role of the state and move towards a more inclusive and sustainable growth model. This includes reducing the oversized role of the government in the economy, improving the efficiency of public spending, and fostering a more competitive private sector. The report emphasizes the need for a structural shift in the growth model and highlights the importance of addressing inequality and improving access to basic services and education for the poor.

References

Key Organizations Involved: World Bank, IFC, GoL, and various World Bank teams.
Peer Reviewers: Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez and Ambar Narayan.
Contributors: Laura Rudert and Elizabeth Wilke from MCC.
Funding and Support: Provided by the World Bank's Global Practices and Cross-Cutting Solution Areas.

Annexes and Appendices

Annex 1: Non-income dimensions of poverty in Lesotho.
Annex 2: Gender issues in poverty and development.
Annex 3: Detailed prioritization process.
Annex 4: Summary of consultations.
Annex 5: Assessment of key knowledge gaps.
Annex 6: Assessment of data availability and gaps.
Annex 7: Bibliography of studies and reports informing the SCD.

Figures and Tables

Figure 1: Reducing inequality is the key to rapid poverty elimination.
Figure 2: Economic growth is essential for poverty reduction.
Figure 3: Rising relative price of non-tradables to tradables.
Figure 4: Private sector's share of total investment is shrinking.
Table 1: Poverty rates by urban/rural area, FY2002/03 and FY2010/11.
Table 2: Overall business climate is challenging.
Table 3: Growth scenarios.
Table 4: Low productivity in largest employers sectors.
Table 5: Employer rankings of relative difficulty of recruiting by occupation and category, 2010.
Table 6: Summary of main issues identified—Chapter 3.
Table 7: Summary of key challenges, desired results, and pathways to achieving twin goals.
Table 8: Cross-country comparison of education indicators.
Table 9: Student learning and per student spending at the primary level in Southern African countries.
Table 10: Poverty rates by family structure, FY2002/03 and FY2010/11.
Table 11: Coverage of existing programs.
Table 12: Summary of main issues identified—Chapter 5.
Table 13: Overview of identified priorities to eliminate extreme poverty and promote shared prosperity.
Table 14: Summary assessment of implementation.
Table 15: Poverty projections, baseline scenario.
Table 16: Poverty trace curve, Lesotho.
Table 17: Sensitivity to growth.
Table 18: Incidence of all Social Protection Programs by quintile of income distribution.
Table 19: GDP by sector, baseline scenario.
Table 20: Demographic assumptions of baseline scenario.
Table 21: Educational expansion assumptions of baseline scenario.
Table 22: Summary of key challenges, desired results, and pathways to achieving twin goals.
Table 23: Summary of prioritization assessment.
Table 24: Top 14 challenges identified through the desk prioritization.
Table 25: Second priority challenges.
Table 26: Mapping broad challenges to priority interventions.

Key Acronyms and Abbreviations

AGOA: African Growth and Opportunity Act
AIDS: Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome
ART: Antiretroviral Therapy
ARV: Antiretroviral
BEDCO: Basotho Enterprises Development Corporation
BFP: Budget Framework Paper
BLNS: Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland
BoS: Bureau of Statistics
CAS: Country Assistance Strategy
CGP: Child Grant Program
CHAL: Christian Health Association of Lesotho
CPF: Country Partnership Framework
CPIA: Country Policy and Institutional Assessment
DCEO: Directorate on Corruption and Economic Offenses
DFID: Department of International Development from United Kingdom
DPO: Development Policy Operation
ECF: Extended Credit Facility
ESW: Economic Sector Work
FDI: Foreign Direct Investment
FIA: Financial Institutions Act
FIRST: Financial Sector Reform and Strengthening Initiative
GDP: Gross Domestic Product
GNI: Gross National Income
GoL: Government of Lesotho
GPOBA: Global Partnership for Output-Based Aid
GTZ: German Technical Corporation
HBS: Household Budget Survey
HIV: Human Immunodeficiency Virus
HMIS: Health Management Information Systems
HRH: Human Resources for Health
IBRD: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development
ICOR: Incremental Capital Output Ratio
ICT: Information and Communication Technologies
IDA: International Development Association
IDM: Institute of Development and Management
IEC: Independent Electoral Commission
IFC: International Finance Corporation
IFMIS: Integrated Financial Management Information System
IFPRI: International Food Policy Research Institute
IMF: International Monetary Fund
LDHS: Labor and Demographic Health Survey
LEC: Lesotho Electricity Company
LHWP: Lesotho Highlands Water Project
LNDC: Lesotho National Development Corporation
LRA: Lesotho Revenue Authority
MAFS: Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security
MCC: Millennium Challenge Council
MDGs: Millennium Development Goals
MIGA: Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency
M&E: Monitoring and Evaluation
MDP: Ministry of Development Planning
MoF: Ministry of Finance
MoH: Ministry of Health
MoSD: Ministry of Social Development
MSME: Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises
MTEF: Medium-Term Expenditure Framework
NER: Net Enrollment Rate
NISSA: National Information System for Social Assistance
NPAB: National Planning Advisory Board
NSDP: National Strategic Development Plan
NUL: National University of Lesotho
OBFC: One Stop Business Facilitation Center
PAF: Performance Assessment Framework
PEFA: Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability
PMT: Proxy Means Test
PPAD: Procurement Policy and Advice Division
PPP: Public/Private Partnerships
PSCEDP: Private Sector Competitiveness and Economic Diversification Project
PSIRP: Public Sector Improvement and Reform Program
PFM: Public Finance Management
PFMRAP: Public Finance Management Reform Action Plan
PRS: Poverty Reduction Strategy
R&D: Research and Development
ROC: Regional Operations Committee
RVP: Regional Vice President
SACMEQ: Southern and Eastern Africa Consortium for Monitoring Educational Quality
SACU: Southern African Customs Union
SADC: Southern African Development Community
SARS: South African Revenue Service
SLM: Sustainable Land Management
SME: Small and Medium Size Enterprises
STI: Sexually Transmitted Infection
SWC: Soil and Water Conservation
TB: Tuberculosis
TCF: Third Country Fabric
TFP: Total Factor Productivity
TTCI: Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index
TVET: Technical and Vocational Education Training
UNEP: United Nations Environment Program
UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
WASCO: Water and Sewerage Company

Key Figures and Tables

Figure 1: Poverty trace curve showing the importance of reducing inequality.
Figure 2: Economic growth is essential for poverty reduction.
Figure 3: Rising relative price of non-tradables to tradables.
Figure 4: Private sector's share of total investment is shrinking.
Table 1: Poverty rates by urban/rural area, FY2002/03 and FY2010/11.
Table 2: Overall business climate is challenging.
Table 3: Growth scenarios.
Table 4: Low productivity in largest employers sectors.
Table 5: Employer rankings of relative difficulty of recruiting by occupation and category, 2010.
Table 6: Summary of main issues identified—Chapter 3.
Table 7: Summary of key challenges, desired results, and pathways to achieving twin goals.
Table 8: Cross-country comparison of education indicators.
Table 9: Student learning and per student spending at the primary level in Southern African countries.
Table 10: Poverty rates by family structure, FY2002/03 and FY2010/11.
Table 11: Coverage of existing programs.
Table 12: Summary of main issues identified—Chapter 5.
Table 13: Overview of identified priorities to eliminate extreme poverty and promote shared prosperity.
Table 14: Summary assessment of implementation.
Table 15: Poverty projections, baseline scenario.
Table 16: Poverty trace curve, Lesotho.
Table 17: Sensitivity to growth.
Table 18: Incidence of all Social Protection Programs by quintile of income distribution.
Table 19: GDP by sector, baseline scenario.
Table 20: Demographic assumptions of baseline scenario.
Table 21: Educational expansion assumptions of baseline scenario.
Table 22: Summary of key challenges, desired results, and pathways to achieving twin goals.
Table 23: Summary of prioritization assessment.
Table 24: Top 14 challenges identified through the desk prioritization.
Table 25: Second priority challenges.
Table 26: Mapping broad challenges to priority interventions.

Conclusion

The report highlights the need for a shift from a government-led growth model to a more inclusive and sustainable one driven by the private sector. It emphasizes the importance of addressing inequality, improving the business environment, and enhancing the efficiency of public spending. These reforms are critical for achieving the twin goals of poverty reduction and shared prosperity in Lesotho.

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