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OECD Economic Surveys: Germany 2025 Summary

Core Content

The OECD Economic Surveys: Germany 2025 is a comprehensive analysis of Germany's economic situation and policy recommendations for fostering sustainable growth and development. The report highlights the impact of global events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's war in Ukraine, and rising trade tensions on Germany's economy, which had previously experienced a decade of strong export-led growth. These challenges have underscored the need for accelerating structural reforms and fiscal adjustments to ensure long-term economic resilience and stability.

Main Views

1. Strengthening Fiscal Policy and Structural Reforms

• Fiscal Sustainability: Germany needs to improve spending efficiency, reallocate spending, and broaden the tax base to ensure medium-term fiscal sustainability. Addressing rising spending pressures from population ageing is crucial.
• Tax Reform: Reducing labour taxes and increasing property taxes, VAT, and environmental taxes could help fund public investment and reduce fiscal pressures. Strengthening tax enforcement and financial literacy is also recommended.
• Pension System: Reforming the public pension system by gradually phasing out early-retirement incentives and improving working conditions for older workers is necessary to stabilise the system and increase the labour supply.
• Public Investment: Increasing public investment in infrastructure and defence is vital, supported by fiscal rule reforms and investment needs. Net public investment should rise to address the large infrastructure backlog.

2. Fostering Competition and Business Dynamism

• Business Dynamism: Firm entry and growth rates have slowed, and post-entry growth is weak, which hampers productivity and innovation. Reducing regulatory and administrative barriers is essential to improve competition and business dynamism.
• Regulatory Environment: While regulation has improved, there is still room for further competition-friendly reforms. Occupational entry regulations and licensing requirements remain high and should be reduced.
• Competition Enforcement: Strengthening the competition agency to challenge decisions that hinder competition and improving transparency in public subsidies to state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is needed. Corruption and regulatory capture must continue to be addressed to ensure a fair market environment.

3. Addressing Skilled Labour Shortages

• Labour Market Challenges: Skilled labour shortages are a growing concern, linked to declining working hours, rising skill mismatch, and population ageing. These issues are particularly acute in the construction sector.
• Labour Supply Incentives: Improving incentives for women, low-income, and older workers is key to increasing the labour supply. Part-time employment is widespread among women and contributes to low working hours.
• Tax and Social Exemptions: Social security and tax exemptions for part-time work (Mini-jobs) should be restricted to students, while withdrawal rates of social benefits should be reduced.
• Education and Training: Enhancing vocational training (VET), adult learning, and the quality of basic education is necessary to address skill gaps and support structural change. Childcare services should be improved to encourage female participation in the workforce.

4. Fostering Regional Development in the Context of Structural Change

• Regional Disparities: While regional GDP per capita disparities have narrowed, structural changes could widen income and wealth gaps between regions. Eastern Germany still faces significant disparities compared to Western Germany.
• Policy Coordination: Better coordination between place-based policies and industrial, infrastructure, and innovation policies is needed to support regional development.
• Municipal Capacity: Improving the financial and administrative capacity of local governments is essential to manage regional development effectively.
• Green and Digital Transitions: The green and digital transitions will have heterogeneous impacts on different regions. Policies should support regions in adapting to these changes while maintaining public services and investment.

Key Information

• Economic Growth: Germany's real GDP growth is expected to be 0.4% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026.
• Private Consumption: It is expected to lead the recovery, with growth of 0.9% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026.
• Unemployment Rate: It is projected to rise slightly to 3.6% in 2025, then stabilise at 3.5% in 2026.
• Inflation: It is expected to decline gradually, from 6.0% in 2023 to 2.1% in 2026.
• Government Financial Balance: It is projected to remain negative, with a balance of -2.7% of GDP in 2025 and -3.3% in 2026.
• Government Debt: It is expected to rise to 64.6% of GDP in 2026.
• Demographics: Germany has a high proportion of people over 65 (22.8%) and a relatively high participation rate of women in the workforce.
• Education: Educational outcomes have deteriorated, and inequality remains high. Early-childhood and basic education quality needs to be improved to support long-term productivity.
• Energy Transition: Renewable energy supply has expanded rapidly, but emissions in transport have not decreased. Grid expansion is being accelerated.
• Digitalisation: Internet download speeds are slow in many regions, and digital skills among public employees need improvement. Standardisation of IT systems and harmonisation of administrative procedures are recommended.

Conclusion

The report calls for a multi-faceted approach to revive economic growth, improve fiscal sustainability, enhance business dynamism, and address skilled labour shortages. It also highlights the importance of regional development during the green and digital transitions. By reducing policy uncertainty, strengthening competition, and improving education and training, Germany can sustain its economic performance and maintain high living standards.