2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Grenada_Third_Review_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_Request_for_Modification_of_Performance_Criteria_and_Financing_Assurances_Review_84页_1mb

GRENADA: Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility

Core Content

This document outlines the IMF's Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Grenada, including the Request for Modification of Performance Criteria and Financing Assurances Review. The review was conducted in August 2015, with the staff report finalized on November 10, 2015. The Executive Board approved a disbursement of SDR 2 million (about US$2.7 million), bringing total resources to SDR 8.04 million (about US$11 million). The review was based on a lapse-of-time basis.

Main Points

1. Economic Performance

• Grenada's economic recovery has strengthened, with growth exceeding expectations.
• GDP growth for 2014 was 5.7% (market prices), driven by agriculture (up 54%) and tourism.
• Unemployment was 29% in 2014, with youth unemployment at 45%.
• Inflation is expected to decline for the third consecutive year, with a projected annual average of 0.8% in 2015 and 2.0% in 2016.

2. Fiscal Performance

• Grenada met all quantitative performance criteria for the third review.
• Achieved the first primary surplus in a decade in the first seven months of 2015.
• The cumulative fiscal adjustment reached 5.75% of GDP, completing more than two-thirds of the total consolidation.
• The social spending floor for end-June 2015 was missed due to delays in implementing the new beneficiary information system, but the end-December target is still expected to be met.

3. Debt Restructuring

• A debt exchange with private creditors is expected to conclude on November 12, 2015, offering a 50% principal haircut on 2025 international bonds.
• The deal is projected to reduce public debt by 11% of GDP by end-2015.
• The government is in negotiations with the Paris Club and non-Paris Club official creditors to finalize a comprehensive debt restructuring.
• Government guaranteed debt is expected to be reduced by 0.4% of GDP by end-2015.

4. Structural Reforms

• The Citizenship-By-Investment (CBI) program is being managed transparently and sustainably.
• The National Transformation Fund (NTF) governance framework was finalized in August 2015.
• A new Fiscal Responsibility Act is being implemented to align fiscal policy with debt reduction goals.
• Public finance management (PFM) reforms were finalized in September 2015.

5. Financial Sector

• Commercial banks have seen improved profitability in the first two quarters of 2015.
• Non-performing loans (NPLs) remain elevated at 13% of total loans.
• Capital adequacy is above the regulatory minimum of 8%.
• Credit contraction is expected in 2015, with bank liquidity increasing.

6. Outlook and Risks

• Economic growth is projected at 3.5% in 2015 and 2.4% in 2016.
• Medium-term growth is expected to stabilize at 2-2.5%, consistent with potential.
• Risks are balanced, with upside risks including increased demand response to oil price decline, CBI inflows, and confidence from debt restructuring.
• Downside risks include natural disasters, global recovery, U.S. dollar appreciation, and U.S.-Cuba tourism opening.

Key Information

• IMF ECF Arrangement: Approved in June 2014, with a total of SDR 14.04 million (about US$21.7 million).
• Disbursements: Equivalent to SDR 6.04 million (US$9 million) have been made so far, with an additional SDR 2 million (US$2.7 million) available after the third review.
• Debt Reduction: The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to decline from 107% in 2013 to 90% in 2015, and further to 57% by 2020.
• Public Sector Reforms: Ongoing reforms are essential to safeguard fiscal adjustment gains and reduce government personnel expenditure.
• Fiscal Discipline: The Fiscal Responsibility Act is critical to ensuring long-term fiscal sustainability.

Summary of Performance Criteria and Structural Benchmarks

Structural Reforms

• CBI Program: Detailed statistics were published in July 2015, aligning with quarterly benchmarks.
• NTF Governance: Regulations finalized in August 2015, implementing the end-February 2015 benchmark.
• PFM Framework: Regulations for the 2015 PFM Act were implemented in September 2015, aligning with the end-June 2015 benchmark.

Conclusion

The IMF's third review confirms that Grenada's program performance remains on track, with fiscal sustainability and growth prospects improving. Continued implementation of structural reforms and debt restructuring is critical to safeguarding progress and achieving long-term stability. The Executive Board has approved the disbursement of US$2.7 million, supporting the three-year ECF arrangement.