20260331-招银国际-极兔速递-W-01519.HK-2025_earnings_beat_expectations_Market_share_further_expanded_8页_767kb

J&T Express (1519 HK) 2025 Performance and Outlook Summary

Core Content

J&T Express has reported strong earnings for 2025, surpassing expectations and expanding its market share, particularly in Southeast Asia (SEA). The company's adjusted after-tax profit surged by 112% YoY to US$425 million, exceeding both the analyst and Bloomberg consensus. This performance is attributed to increased parcel volume and improved unit margins. The company has also shown positive EBIT in new markets, reinforcing its global growth narrative.

Key Financial Highlights

Revenue

• Total Revenue (YE 31 Dec): Increased by 18.5% YoY to US$12,158 million in FY25.
• 2025 Revenue Breakdown:
  • Express delivery services: US$5,499 million in 1H25 and US$6,659 million in 2H25.
  • Cross-border services: US$29 million in 1H25 and US$47 million in 2H25.

Adjusted Net Profit

• Total Adjusted Net Profit (YE 31 Dec): Rose to US$425.4 million in FY25, up 112.3% YoY.
• 2025 Profit Breakdown:
  • 1H25: US$153 million.
  • 2H25: US$272 million.
  • Recurring net profit after tax: US$425 million in FY25, with a significant increase in 2H25.

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

• Adjusted EPS (YE 31 Dec): Increased to US$4.87 in FY25.
• 2025 EPS Breakdown:
  • 1H25: US$0.89.
  • 2H25: US$1.12.

Valuation

• Target Price (TP): Revised up to HK$14.70 (from HK$13.40), reflecting improved earnings and growth prospects.
• P/E Ratio (YE 31 Dec): Decreased from 100.4 to 51.1 in FY25, then to 18.9 in FY26E.
• P/B Ratio (YE 31 Dec): Reduced from 3.6 to 3.2 in FY25, then to 2.8 in FY26E.

Key Operating Performance

Shipment Volume

• Total shipment volume (YE 31 Dec): Increased by 31.2% YoY to 6,600 million units in 2025.
• Regional Breakdown:
  • Southeast Asia: 7,677 million units in 2025, up 73.6% YoY.
  • China: 5,891 million units in 2025, with a slight decrease of 0.4% in 4Q24.
  • New markets: 1,340 million units in 2025, up 79.5% YoY in 4Q24.

Average Selling Price (ASP)

• Blended ASP: US$0.40 in 2025, up 3.9% YoY.
• Regional ASP:
  • Southeast Asia: Decreased from US$0.74 to US$0.57 in 1H25, and further to US$0.59 in 2025.
  • China: Reduced from US$0.34 to US$0.30 in 1H25, then to US$0.30 in 2025.
  • New markets: Increased slightly from US$2.14 to US$2.18 in 1H25, then to US$2.13 in 2025.

Gross Margin

• Blended gross margin: Increased from 11% to 13.9% in 2025.
• Regional Breakdown:
  • Southeast Asia: Reduced from 18.9% to 17.8% in 1H25, then to 20.2% in 2H25.
  • China: Declined from 7.1% to 4.5% in 1H25, but rose to 8.6% in 2H25.
  • New markets: Remained stable at 12% in 1H25, but increased to 20.6% in 2H25.

Adjusted EBITDA

• Total adjusted EBITDA (YE 31 Dec): Rose to US$937 million in FY25, up 35.4% YoY.
• 2025 EBITDA Breakdown:
  • 1H25: US$365 million.
  • 2H25: US$571 million.
• Regional EBITDA:
  • Southeast Asia: Increased by 50.5% YoY to US$313 million in 1H25, and by 58.4% to US$393 million in 2H25.
  • China: Decreased by 22.1% YoY to US$155 million in 1H25, then to US$208 million in 2H25.
  • New markets: Improved from US$-8 million to US$2 million in 1H25, and to US$47 million in 2H25.

Key Assumptions and Forecasts

Shipment Volume Growth

• 2026E: Revised down by 3.5% to 35,378 million units.
• 2027E: Revised down by 2.4% to 41,109 million units.
• 2028E: Revised down by 2.0% to 47,272 million units.

Unit Margins

• Blended unit gross margin: Increased from US$0.38 to US$0.40 in 2025.
• Regional unit gross margin:
  • Southeast Asia: Declined from US$0.15 to US$0.10 in 2025.
  • China: Increased from US$0.02 to US$0.02 in 2025.
  • New markets: Increased from US$0.25 to US$0.35 in 2025.

Valuation Adjustments

EV/EBITDA Multiples

• SEA: 14x, reflecting strong pricing power and market share gains.
• China: 6.5x, in line with peers.
• New markets: 20x, reflecting growth potential.

Equity Value

• Total equity value (2026E): Estimated at US$16,575 million.
• Breakdown:
  • SEA: 75% of total value, valued at US$12,563 million.
  • China: 14% of total value, valued at US$2,399 million.
  • New markets: 11% of total value, valued at US$1,882 million.

Investment Recommendation

• Maintain BUY: Due to the company's strong competitive edge, market share gains in SEA, and potential in new markets like Brazil and the Middle East.
• Up/Downside: 61.9% based on the revised target price.

Market Share and Strategic Moves

• Market share in SEA: Reached 34.4% in 2025, an increase of 5.8ppts YoY.
• Strategic initiatives: Includes share-swap with SF to expand new markets, and ongoing investor calls indicating continued growth.

Share Performance

• 12-mth price performance: Down 11.6% absolutely and 7.6% relatively.
• Shareholding: Jet Jie Li holds 11.1% of the shares.
• Market Cap: HK$80,014.5 million.
• Avg 3 mths t/o: HK$288.2 million.
• 52w High/Low: HK$12.00 / HK$4.68.

Conclusion

J&T Express has demonstrated robust growth and profitability in 2025, particularly in SEA and new markets, leading to a revised target price and continued BUY recommendation. The company's strong competitive position and strategic initiatives are key drivers of its growth story.