2025年全球消费者展望报告（英）_22页_4mb

Summary of Global Consumer Outlook Report

Key Findings

• 2025 Consumer Spending Projection: Global consumer class spending is expected to reach $60.3 trillion in 2025, representing a 3.4% growth from the revised $58.3 trillion in 2024. This growth is primarily driven by American consumers and older age groups.

• Downward Revisions: The majority of spending revisions in 2025 are negative, with Asia-Pacific experiencing the largest downgrade of $765 billion. Factors include currency fluctuations, inflation reductions, and slower economic growth, while Europe and other regions also see cuts.

• Scenario Analysis:

  • Baseline scenarios highlight risks from global uncertainties, such as tighter monetary policies and trade tensions, affecting consumers differently by region.
  • Reform-focused scenarios suggest EU consumers stand to gain significantly from increased public investment, while US consumers face the highest losses due to potential tax hikes.

• Key Insights:

  • Global growth is slowing, with consumer spending increasing by only $2 trillion in 2025, less than previously anticipated.
  • Silver spenders (older consumers) dominate spending growth in the US, while reforms in China could boost its middle class.
  • Downside risks are concentrated in the US, whereas opportunities exist in the EU through policy changes.