20260316-招银国际-4Q_robust_growth_in-line_geographic_diversification_saw_sequential_improvement_9页_814kb

Futu Holdings (FUTU US) 4Q25 Earnings Summary and Outlook

Core Content

Futu Holdings (FUTU US) reported its 4Q25 earnings, which showed robust growth and exceeded expectations in both total revenue and non-GAAP net profit. The company's performance was bolstered by strong expense controls, leading to improved gross and operating margins. Futu also outlined its strategic focus on geographic diversification and client acquisition, with plans for new market entries and product expansion.

Main Points

Financial Performance in 4Q25

• Total Revenue: HK$6.44bn, a 2% beat of estimates, up 45% YoY and 0.6% QoQ.
• Non-GAAP Net Profit: HK$3.46bn, a 4% beat of estimates, up 77% YoY and 4.3% QoQ.
• Gross Margin: 88.7%, up 1.1% QoQ and 6.2% YoY.
• Operating Margin: 64.4%, up 3.4% QoQ and 14.4% YoY, both record highs since 2023.

Client Growth and AUM

• New Funded Accounts: 234k added in 4Q25, bringing full-year additions to 954k, a 19.3% increase over the year-start guidance of 800k.
• Total Funded Accounts: 3.4mn, up 39.6% YoY and 7.5% QoQ.
• Client AUM: HK$1.23tn, up 66% YoY and flat QoQ.
• Geographic Diversification: 55% of total funded accounts added from non-Greater China markets, with HK and Malaysia being the largest contributors.

Trading Volume and Market Share

• Total Trading Volume: HK$3.98tn, a 38% YoY increase and 2% QoQ growth, reaching a historical high.
• US Stock Turnover: HK$3.04tn, up 17% QoQ.
• HK Stock Turnover: Dropped 31% QoQ, affected by market sentiment.
• Futu's Market Share:
  • HK Stock Market: 2.93% (slightly below previous quarters).
  • US Stock Market: 0.33% (consistent with previous quarters).

Crypto Trading

• Crypto Trading Volume: HK$20bn in 4Q25, representing 0.5% of stock turnover.
• ADS Trading Volume: Less than 10% of US stock turnover, indicating a diversified trading structure.

Interest Income

• Interest Income: HK$3.04bn, up 50% YoY and flat QoQ, despite Fed rate cuts.

Operating Expenses

• Total Operating Expenses: HK$1.56bn, down 8.3% QoQ and 2% below estimates.
• R&D and S&M Expenses: Both fell 11.8% and 13.5% QoQ, respectively, to HK$507mn each.
• CAC: Down 6% QoQ to HK$2,165, 13% below the management's initial guidance range of HK$2,500-3,000.

Key Operating Metrics and Outlook

2026E Outlook

• New Client Acquisition Target: 800k, with HK and Malaysia expected to be the largest contributors.
• Client AUM Growth: Expected to modestly rise in 1Q26E, with single-digit sequential growth.
• Net Asset Inflows: Expected to reach a record high in 1Q26E, despite market volatility.
• Trading Volume: Expected to grow in low single digits to ~HK$4tn in 1Q26E.
• CAC for 2026E: Expected to be ~HK$2.3k, slightly lower than the management's guidance range.

Product Expansion

• HK: Launched high-dividend funds and reduced minimum investment thresholds for retail investors.
• SG: Introduced SG-listed equity funds and short-duration bond funds.
• MY: Launched Shariah-compliant gold tracker funds.
• US: Rolled out features for active traders, leading to double-digit sequential growth in options and crypto trading volumes.

Regulatory and Strategic Developments

• Airstar Bank: Progressed on track, with focus on new product launches and technology infrastructure.
• VATP License: Phase II evaluation ongoing, with full license expected in 1H26E.
• Crypto Services: Futu plans to launch crypto staking and margin financing services using stocks as collateral upon receiving the VATP license.

Valuation and Forecast Updates

• EPS Forecast: Adjusted to HK$94/110/124 for FY26E–FY28E, reflecting in-line 4Q25 results.
• Forward P/E Multiple: 19x, based on peers' average and a 10% discount.
• Current P/E: 12x FY26E, representing a 50% discount to key global peers and lower than its own average 12mth P/E since 4Q21.
• Target Price: US$228.00, with BUY recommendation maintained.

Downside Risks

• Lower-than-expected stock turnover due to easing sentiment.
• Softening trends in client asset inflows across key markets.
• Interest rate shocks.
• Significant drawdowns in US/HK stock and crypto markets.
• Slower-than-expected progress in new market entry.
• Tightening regulatory oversight.

Financial Metrics Table

Metric	4Q24	1Q25	2Q25	3Q25	4Q25	QoQ%	YoY%	CMBI Est	Diff.
Revenue	10,008	13,590	22,847	25,888	29,715	66.4%	19.7%	25,888	0.0%
Gross Margin	82.5%	84.0%	87.4%	87.6%	88.7%	1.1%	6.2%	87.3%	1.4%
Operating Margin	50.0%	57.2%	63.0%	61.0%	64.4%	3.4%	14.4%	62.0%	2.4%
Net Margin	42.2%	45.7%	48.5%	50.4%	52.7%	2.2%	10.4%	51.7%	0.9%
ROE	26.5%	29.4%	32.4%	37.0%	35.5%	-1.5%	8.9%	34.1%	1.3%
P/E (x)	36.5	28.6	13.9	11.9	10.3	-3.7%	-14.9%	11.9	0.0%
P/B (x)	6.5	5.7	4.0	3.0	2.4	-1.3%	-4.5%	2.4	0.0%
EV/EBITDA (x)	24.1	18.7	9.2	8.0	6.8	-12.0%	-35.0%	6.8	0.0%

Conclusion

Futu Holdings continues to show strong financial performance and strategic expansion, with a BUY recommendation maintained. The company is well-positioned to benefit from geographic diversification, crypto advancements, and product innovation. Despite the challenges posed by market volatility and regulatory uncertainties, Futu's cost control and client acquisition strategies are expected to drive sustained growth and value creation.