2021-12-06-牛津经济研究院-London_Monitor_London_continues_to_recover._But_the_path_just_got_a_bit_rockier._21页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of the London Monitor Report (December 2021)

Core Content

The London Monitor report provides an overview of the city's economic recovery post-pandemic, highlighting mixed signals and external challenges. It includes analysis of GDP, employment, construction, tourism, and the financial sector, as well as the impact of the Omicron variant and TfL's financial crisis on the city's economic outlook.

Key Economic Forecasts

GDP Growth:
- Greater London's GDP growth forecast was reduced to 5.4% for 2022 from 5.7% in 2021.
- Inner London's GDP growth remains at 5.5% for both years.
GVA Growth:
- GVA growth for London was revised to 5.7% in 2021 and 5.4% in 2022.
- Inner London shows consistent growth of 5.5% for both years.
- Outer London's growth is expected to slow, with 5.3% in 2022.

Business Trends

The IHS Markit PMI for London rose in October to 60.5, showing improvement in business activity.
New sales increased, but this may be due to rising prices rather than real growth.
Work outstanding decreased, indicating a slowdown in actual production.
Employment data from the Labour Force Survey and PAYE suggest a continued recovery, with employment rising in Q3 and October.

Employment Outlook

Employment in London is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2022.
Inner London is projected to see a larger share of the growth, at 2.5%.
Outer London experienced a -1.0% growth in 2021, but is expected to improve in 2022.
The claimant count unemployment rate dropped in October, but remains 0.8 points above pre-pandemic levels.

Construction Activity

Construction spending in London grew in Q3 2021, though at a slower rate than Q2.
Non-housing new work was the largest contributor, growing by 2.3%.
Private housing and repair/maintenance saw declines, but were offset by public sector and industrial activity.
Public housing output grew by 8.6% in the quarter, though it is a small category.

Financial Sector

Business lending and consumer credit increased in October, but equity trades and trade values declined.
The financial sector faces challenges due to contradictory forces and central government control over TfL.
TfL's financial crisis is a concern, with revenues heavily impacted by the pandemic and reduced passenger numbers.

Tourism & Travel

Hotel occupancy rose in September to 62%, but remains below pre-pandemic levels.
Airport passenger numbers increased by 83% year-on-year in October, but declined from September.
Travel within London saw a slight slowdown in November, with transit requests still 40% above pre-pandemic levels.

House Prices & Rents

House prices in London showed volatility, with a 0.2% increase over the last three months to September, but a -2.9% decline in September.
Inner London saw significant price fluctuations, with some boroughs experiencing strong growth and others sharp declines.
Outer London performed better, with a 1.0% increase in the three months to September and no decline in September.
Rents in London rose by 0.1% in October, but the trend's sustainability is uncertain due to the Covid situation.

Consumer Outlook

Consumer spending in London is expected to grow 7.9% in real terms in 2022, as people spend accumulated savings.
Inflation is projected to slow in H2 2022, which will support consumer expenditure.
Tourism is expected to continue growing, but is vulnerable to worsening Covid conditions.

Challenges and Risks

The Omicron variant poses a risk to the recovery, although it is not the central forecast.
TfL's financial crisis is a major concern, with potential cuts in spending affecting transport and, by extension, the economy.
Supply chain disruptions and inflation are expected to slow the recovery pace in 2022.
Online job adverts declined in November, possibly due to vacancies being filled.

Summary of Key Points

Economic Recovery: London's economy continues to recover, but the pace has slowed, with mixed signals.
Transport: TfL faces a significant financial challenge, and its future is uncertain due to revenue declines and government pressure.
Employment: Employment is on the rise, with Inner London leading the recovery.
Construction: Activity remains positive, though private housing and repair/maintenance sectors are underperforming.
Tourism: A key sector for London's economy, but still below pre-pandemic levels and vulnerable to new restrictions.
Consumer Spending: Expected to increase significantly in 2022, driven by excess savings and lower inflation.
House Prices: Show volatility, with Inner London experiencing more fluctuations and Outer London showing more stability.
Omicron Risk: Could affect the recovery, but the focus remains on positive growth in 2022.

Main Viewpoints

London's economy is showing signs of recovery, but it is facing increased challenges.
The financial sector is experiencing mixed performance, with lending up but equity trades down.
TfL's financial situation is a critical issue that may impact the city's transport and economic health.
Consumer and employment trends are positive, but the impact of inflation and the pandemic remains a concern.
Tourism and construction are key growth areas, but their progress is uneven and dependent on external factors.

Key Information

GDP and GVA growth forecasts have been revised downward due to economic challenges.
Employment is recovering, with Inner London leading the way.
Construction spending is growing, though private sectors are underperforming.
TfL's financial crisis is a major concern, with potential cuts in spending.
Consumer spending is expected to rise sharply in 2022, but inflation and Covid are key risks.
House prices show significant volatility, with Inner London more affected.
Omicron variant could impact the recovery, but positive growth is still expected in 2022.