2025-06-09-Jefferies-2025年5月人寿保险保费_高基数下行业增长疲软；私营公司领先_Axis_-_Max居首_11页_1mb

India Insurance Equity Research Summary

Key Trends

• In May-25, retail APE growth for life insurers softened to 3% YoY, with significant divergence: LIC declined 7%, while private insurers saw a 7% increase.
• Private insurers led growth due to a rebound in ULIPs, but subdued growth is expected in the next 2-3 months due to a high base. Profit impact from ULIPs is mitigated as their margins are lower.

Leading & Lagging Companies

• Top performers: Axis-Max Life led with a 25% YoY growth, followed by HDFC Life at 15%. Birla Life grew 32%.
• Underperformers: IPRU Life fell 14% YoY on a high base, attributed to a heavy ULIP portfolio. SBI Life recorded only 4% growth but maintains a positive 2-year CAGR.
• Pvt insurers like Bajaj and Tata AIA showed resilience, while LIC struggled due to both base effects and weaker performance.

Market Share Dynamics

• Retail market share for private insurers increased from 67% in May-24 to 70% in May-25, with LIC's share declining to ~30%.

Valuation & Investment Outlook

• Equity research advises "Buy" for Axis-Max Life, HDFC Life, ICICI Pru, and others, with price targets and P/E ratios highlighting upside potential. Key metrics include P/APE and P/E growth rates.

Risks & Notes

• Growth sustainability depends on market conditions and ULIP performance. Valuation reflects strong adoption but cautions on sector-specific risks and potential for variable returns.