20140808-招商证券_香港_-Morning_Express_14页_541kb

报告摘要

CMS(HK) Research Highlights Summary

China Unicom (762 HK, HK$12.8, NEUTRAL, TP HK$11.34)

Core Content

2Q14 Performance: Revenue, EBITDA, and net profit grew by -0.8%, 7.9%, and -0.9% YoY, respectively, slightly below market expectations.
Mobile Revenue Decline: Mobile revenue growth slowed to 8.1% YoY from 15.4% YoY in 1Q14, due to a significant decline in mobile net adds (-54% YoY) and blended APRU (-5.1% YoY).
2G/3G Revenue: 2G/3G mobile revenue growth decelerated to -18% / +23% YoY, compared to -14% / +35% YoY in 1Q14.
Reasons for Decline: Higher competition, VAT implementation, and changes in subsidy policies.
Earnings Pressure: Expected to continue in the coming quarters due to mobile saturation, APRU decline, and VAT impact.

Main Points

EBITDA Margin Expansion: EBITDA margin expanded to 32.4% from 31.4% in 1Q14, driven by lower 3G handset subsidies and interconnection charges.
Net Profit Decline: Net profit decreased by -0.9% YoY due to higher depreciation and finance costs.
Subsidy Savings: Subsidy savings could partially offset VAT impact but will continue to pressure 2G/3G APRU.
Strategic Shift: Management plans to improve revenue mix with value-added services and shift distribution channel commissions to direct subsidies.
4G Development: Focused on 4-mode 4G-LTE handsets, with target to cover 300 cities by year-end.
CAPEX: Maintained at RMB80bn in 2014, with depreciation gradually reducing.
Market Outlook: Near-term uncertainties (VAT impact and APRU pressure) may affect share price; rating remains NEUTRAL.

Melco Crown (6883 HK, HK$78.65, BUY, TP: HK$120.60)

Core Content

2Q14 EBITDA: Adjusted EBITDA of US$314mn, down 11% YoY and 19% QoQ. Luck-adjusted EBITDA improved to US$345mn, up 11% YoY and in line with estimates.
Stock Repurchase: Approved a US$500mn stock repurchase program.
Valuation: Trades at FY14E 18.9x P/E and 10.4x EV/EBITDA, with potential earnings downgrade risk.
Properties: City of Dreams Manila to open in 4Q14E; Macau Studio City (MSC) to open in mid-2015 with expected 400+ gaming tables.
Risk Factors: Earnings downgrade, execution risks for new pipeline properties.

A-share Research Highlights

Power and Gas Industry

Electricity Consumption: From Jan to Jun 2014, total electricity consumption reached 2.6276 trillion kwh, up 5.3% YoY. June consumption was 463.9 billion kwh, up 5.9% YoY.
Natural Gas Consumption: 88.7 billion cubic meters, up 9.4% YoY, with June consumption at 13.1 billion cubic meters, up 7.4% YoY but down 7.8% MoM.
Power Generation Capacity: Increased by 5.8% YoY to 2.6163 trillion kwh.
Utilization Hours: Decreased by 79 hours YoY.
Sector Growth: Hydropower performed well, while thermal power still had upside potential. Gas industry showed long-term growth potential.
Recommendations:
- Hydropower stocks (e.g., SDIC Power, Chuantou Energy, Yangtze Power)
- Power stocks benefiting from SOE reforms and UHV development (e.g., Inner Mongolia Mengdian, Zhangze Elec Power)
- Gas stocks (e.g., Guoxin Energy, Jinhong Energy, SZ Gas)

Key Risks

Coal-power tariff linkage exceeding expectations
Water resources shortage affecting hydropower
Coal price rebound
Gas supply not meeting expectations
Distributor price adjustments

New Materials Serial Report II: Graphene Revolution

Core Content

Graphene Features: Excellent mechanical, optical, electrical, and microquantum properties; currently the thinnest and hardest nanomaterial.
Applications: Potential in electrode, battery, transistor, touchscreen, solar energy, sensors, ultra-light materials, healthcare, and seawater desalination.
Market Potential: May exceed a trillion RMB in size.
China's Position: China ranks first in graphene-related patents, indicating leadership in the industry.
Challenges: Manufacturing, technology transfer, and industry integration are critical factors with some time required for progress.
Recommended Companies: China Baoan, Ene-Carbon New Materials, Jinlu Group, Zhongtai Chemical, Kangde Xin, Leaguer Stock, Deluxe Family, Fangda Carbon.

What to Watch

Company Events (August 8, 2014)

Multiple listed companies are releasing interim results and dividends.
Key events include HYSAN DEV, LIU CHONG HING, U-PRESID CHINA, OOIL, etc.

Research Coverage List (August 8, 2014)

Sector	Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (HK$)	12-Month TP % Upside	Mkt Cap (US$mn)	EPS (2014E)	P/E (2014E)
Auto & Auto Parts	Brilliance China	1114 HK	BUY	14.24	12.0	9,427	0.71	16.4
	BYD Company	1211 HK	NEUTRAL	50.9	32.9	4,558	0.27	132.5
	China ZhengTong Auto	1728 HK	BUY	4.18	10.3	1,237	0.55	6.3
	Geely Automobile	175 HK	BUY	3.1	5.04	3,100	0.32	6.9
	CSR	1766 HK	BUY	7.04	8.08	1,522	0.31	15.1
	Great Wall Motor	2333 HK	BUY	31.9	43.4	3,838	2.74	8.4
	CSR Times Electric	3898 HK	BUY	26.65	32.03	1,663	1.10	17.2
	China Oilfield Services	2883 HK	NEUTRAL	18.98	21.0	4,355	1.49	10.1
	NewOcean Energy	342 HK	BUY	5.38	9.83	1,110	0.55	10.6
	Sinopec	386 HK	BUY	7.44	7.52	24,322	0.57	10.4
	Petrochina	857 HK	BUY	10.12	11.2	26,646	0.71	11.1
	CNOOC	883 HK	BUY	13.92	17.0	80,173	1.26	8.9
	China Resources Land	1109 HK	NEUTRAL	16.96	17.0	10,666	2.52	5.6
	Evergrande Real Estate	3333 HK	BUY	3.3	4.38	5,641	0.79	3.1
	Greentown China	3900 HK	BUY	8.4	15.8	2,155	2.18	2.9
	China Overseas Land	688 HK	BUY	22.55	22.56	19,820	2.82	6.7
	Hopson Development	754 HK	BUY	8.15	19.1	2,185	2.10	3.6
	China Hongqiao	1378 HK	BUY	6.58	6.2	4,229	0.95	4.7
	Jiangxi Copper	358 HK	SELL	14.62	10.2	2,194	1.03	9.6
	China Molybdenum	3993 HK	NEUTRAL	5.24	3.1	671	0.19	16.8
	RUSAL	486 HK	NEUTRAL	4.07	3.1	6,822	-0.21	N.A.

Summary of Key Information

China Unicom

Mobile revenue growth slowed due to VAT and subsidy policy changes.
EBITDA margin improved but not enough to offset topline weakness.
Subsidy savings may help offset VAT impact, but APRU pressure continues.
Rating remains NEUTRAL due to ongoing challenges.

Melco Crown

2Q14 results were in line after luck adjustment.
Stock repurchase program and potential earnings downgrade expected.
Valuation remains attractive despite risks.
Next catalyst is on-time opening of properties.

Power and Gas

Electricity and natural gas consumption both showed growth, though natural gas declined MoM.
Hydropower performance was strong, while thermal power had potential.
Gas industry has long-term growth prospects.
Recommended stocks include hydropower, SOE reform beneficiaries, and UHV-related companies.

New Materials

Graphene has promising applications and market potential.
China leads in graphene patents, indicating leadership in the industry.
Challenges include manufacturing and integration.
Recommended companies are those with graphene-related technologies or collaborations.

Stock Market and Exchange Rates

Hang Seng Index and HSCEI declined, while CSI 300 also showed negative changes.
Exchange rates like USD/RMB and USD/HKD remained stable.
Interest rates like 3M Libor and 3M Shibor showed minor fluctuations.

Market Outlook

Near-term uncertainties in China Unicom and Melco Crown could impact share prices.
Overall, the market remains cautious due to various factors.

Conclusion

The document provides an in-depth analysis of the performance of various companies and sectors, highlighting challenges such as VAT implementation, mobile saturation, and APRU decline for China Unicom, while noting its strategic shift and potential for improvement. For Melco Crown, the stock repurchase program and potential property openings offer support despite earnings risks. In the power and gas sectors, steady growth and long-term potential are emphasized, with specific recommendations for certain stocks. The graphene industry is viewed as highly promising, with China in a leading position. Overall, the market is under review, and some stocks are rated NEUTRAL or BUY based on their performance and future outlook.

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